Top DraftKings NFL Player Specials: Best Futures for the 2026 Season
Football has returned, and betting analyst Stewart Serena from Underscoreg Review has examined the Player Specials markets on DraftKings. He is now sharing his top NFL picks based on the most recent NFL odds.
Tips for betting on NFL player specials
It can be challenging to find significant value in the one-way markets listed under the “Player Specials” menu on DraftKings. These betting options are best approached from a recreational standpoint.
However, a select few caught my attention and displayed value according to my projections and handicapping process.
- Create custom projections
- Run my model 20,000 times to simulate projections and determine the likelihood of a specific outcome.
- Convert the probability into odds.
- Compare my chances with the DraftKings statistics.
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Top DraftKings NFL Player Specials: Wagers
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Drake London is favored to exceed 1,250.5 receiving yards with +450 odds on DraftKings. ⭐⭐
I initially predicted London would have 887 receiving yards, making this prop seem uninteresting. However, after analyzing the numbers, I calculated that London has a 22.6% chance of surpassing this benchmark. I would value this prop at +342, indicating a positive expected value of 24% according to my projections.
London has a receiving-yards total of 825.5 through DraftKings, with odds of -120. I would value that prop at -122, which gives a positive expected value of just 1%.
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Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are projected to have over 20 combined regular season receiving touchdowns, with odds of +400 on DraftKings.
In this case, my projections fall short of the 20-TD benchmark for this prop, but I still give the Buffalo duo a better chance than the DraftKings odds. I predict Diggs will have 9.1 receiving touchdowns, and Davis will have 6.7. Based on my calculations, I would price this prop at +359, indicating a positive expected value of 9%.
DraftKings is offering +100 odds for Ja’Marr Chase to lead the Bengals in regular season yards from scrimmage.
I’m making this a competition between three cats, with Chase as the frontrunner to outgain running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Tee Higgins in yards from scrimmage.
| Player | Projected yards from scrimmage |
|---|---|
| Ja’Marr Chase | 1,438 |
| Joe Mixon | 1,258 |
| Tee Higgins | 1,090 |
According to my analysis, I would set Chase’s odds at -165 to lead the Bengals in yards from scrimmage, resulting in a 25% expected value on the DraftKings price. It is important to mention that I have narrowed down the field to three players, but there are other talented playmakers on the Bengals team.
Tua Tagovailoa is favored to lead the AFC East in regular season passing yards (+350 odds on DraftKings) ⭐⭐
In my analysis, I see potential in betting on Tagovailoa to finish at the top of the AFC East in passing yards. While I predict he will come in second behind Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, the DraftKings odds of +350 are more favorable than my calculated +251 odds. This represents a positive expected value of 28%.
| Quarterback | Projected passing yards | My price to lead AFC East in passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 4,290 | +221 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4,098 | +251 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3,953 | +372 |
| Mac Jones | 3,558 | +481 |
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Jalen Hurts throws for over 4,000 yards and A.J. Brown racks up more than 1,000 receiving yards in the regular season, earning a bonus of 500 points on DraftKings. ⭐⭐⭐
This parlay is highly correlated, and I believe there is a lot of value in it because I have calculated that Brown will reach over 1,000 receiving yards, with a projection of 1,228 yards and odds priced at -381.
Therefore, Hurts will need to carry the bulk of the workload for this bet to pay off.
I predict Hurts will throw for 3,733 passing yards, so I am setting the price for him to throw for 4,000 yards or more at +217. Using our parlay calculator, I calculated a +300 price for this parlay, giving it a comfortable 50% positive expected value compared to the odds on DraftKings.
According to DraftKings, T.J. Watt is expected to achieve over 20 sacks with odds of +1300.
There are two perspectives to consider when looking at this prop.
- In 2021, Watt tallied 22.5 sacks in only 15 games.
- Watt only played in 10 games and recorded 5.5 sacks in 2026.
I predict the Pittsburgh pass-rusher will get 13.9 sacks, so I would price this prop at +706. This is a significant difference, especially since there have only been two instances of 20 sacks in the past eight seasons. It’s definitely a risky bet.
However, according to my calculations, the +1300 odds offered by DraftKings have a positive expected value of 74% when compared to my projected price.
Chase Young predicted to have 8 or more sacks (+275 odds on DraftKings) 🌟
Looking for another flier?
Since winning the Defensive Rookie of the Year award in 2020, Young has seen limited playing time on the field and is currently battling a neck injury, casting doubt on his availability for the season opener.
However, I am forecasting Young to achieve 6.1 sacks. After the Washington Commanders declined his fifth-year option, the 24-year-old has a lot of motivation to make a strong comeback. I would place the odds at +218, indicating a positive expected value of 18% according to my calculations.
It remains a significant risk considering Young’s current injury status.
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Related pages
- Top Sports Betting Sites with the Best Promotions (Available in the U.S. only)
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