Predictions for the 2026 NFL season: Running backs who could exceed expectations, disappoint, and be worth betting on.

The intersection of fantasy football and NFL betting presents a unique opportunity to gather valuable insight from experts in both fields. Underscoreg Review has enlisted four of our top NFL betting analysts to provide their expertise on running back sleepers and busts, as well as their top betting plays utilizing the latest NFL odds. Be sure to also explore our recommendations for quarterback and wide receiver sleepers, busts, and best bets.

The running back position in fantasy football is now considered the highest risk-reward position. Having the perfect combination of running backs in your draft can put you in contention for the fantasy title. However, if you end up with even just one star running back who doesn’t meet expectations or gets injured, you’ll likely find yourself in the consolation bracket.

NFL bettors often face a dilemma when deciding on their bets. While it may seem like a good idea to bet on a running back who is expected to get a lot of playing time, there are many factors that can quickly change the situation. These include unexpected competition from a backup player, a change in game strategy, a major injury, or other unforeseen events.

Check out our top NFL betting analysts as they discuss the 2026 NFL running back landscape in our 2026 NFL betting guide. Their insights are based on odds from our best sports betting apps, with confidence ratings on a 1-to-5-star scale.

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The top 12 fantasy running backs based on average draft position.

(ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator with 1/2 PPR scoring; rushing statistics provided by bet365; last updated on Thursday, August 24th at 11:30 AM Eastern Time)

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Running Back Sleepers

D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles

Choose: Bet on Swift to lead the NFL in scrimmage yards with odds of +6600 on bet365 ⭐⭐⭐

I believe D’Andre Swift is a highly underrated running back, which is why I made him the focal point of the return package in a dynasty fantasy trade that included Tyreek Hill. Although the Eagles have a packed backfield, I trust general manager Howie Roseman’s track record and don’t think he would have acquired Swift without good reason, given his status as a former second-round pick.

Evans Santiago, also known as SBR on Twitter.

Rachaad White is a player for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Selection: Choose the over on White’s rushing yards at 674.5 (-110 odds at BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Rachaad White, the overlooked starting running back, is flying under the radar. Despite being overshadowed by Leonard Fournette last season, the 2026 third-round pick will have the opportunity to lead the backfield in 2026. Stewart Serena predicts that White will surpass his rushing yards prop of 674.5 yards at BetMGM, and I fully support this projection.

Mike McClymont, also known as SBR and with the Twitter handle @X.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

Selection: Bet on Cook to surpass 625.5 rushing yards (-115 odds at Caesars) ⭐⭐

In July, I placed an early bet on James Cook to surpass 600.5 rushing yards through Caesars. The sportsbook later adjusted the number to 650.5, then down to 625.5. I predict the Buffalo Bills sophomore will reach 699 rushing yards, making the Over 625.5 bet have a -157 price. This presents a positive expected value of 14% over the Caesars number.

Stewart Serena (SBR | @X on Twitter)

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

Select James Conner to score more than 5.5 rushing touchdowns at -115 odds from Caesars Underscoreg. ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While the Cardinals may not perform well and may be difficult to watch, James Conner, known as a human bowling ball, is likely to score many touchdowns for Arizona. Despite concerns about his health, Conner has a track record of scoring frequently when he is healthy. In 2026, he scored seven rushing touchdowns in just 13 games, and in a previous season, he scored 15 touchdowns on a limited number of carries.

– Kelly Irvin is on Twitter as @X.

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Running Back Busts

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans

Selection: Take the under on Pierce rushing for 900.5 yards (-115 odds at DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

FanDuel has set the line for Dameon Pierce’s 2026 rushing total at 850.5 with -112 odds on both sides. DraftKings is offering a 50-point cushion on its line, and I’m willing to pay the extra three cents for an Under bet. This is due to Pierce being a sophomore running back playing with a rookie quarterback in a new offensive system.

–– Evans Santiago

Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings

Choose: Mattison to rush for under 900.5 yards (-112 on FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

I apologize for being the party pooper when it comes to Alexander Mattison. He has been a popular choice in fantasy football for a while now, especially as a backup for Dalvin Cook. However, now that he is the main running back for the Minnesota Vikings, I have my doubts about whether the 25-year-old can live up to the high expectations. I predict he will fall short of his 900.5 rushing yards prop.

–– Mike McClymont

The New York Jets have signed Breece Hall.

Selection: Bet on Hall to rush for under 875.5 yards (-115 odds at DraftKings) 🌟

For years, overly optimistic expectations about injured players have led to disappointment for bettors and fantasy football enthusiasts. Putting too much faith in Breece Hall’s potential return to peak form after a knee injury in 2026 may turn out to be wishful thinking. Despite projecting Hall to rush for 936 yards, there are significant concerns about how he will perform after surgery. The risk of being cautious with his return, potentially worsening the injury, or losing explosiveness are all valid worries. Additionally, the lack of confidence in the New York Jets’ offensive line only adds to the uncertainty surrounding Hall’s potential success.

–– Stewart Serena

Green Bay Packers’ player Aaron Jones

Selection: Jones to rush for fewer than 875.5 yards (-115 odds at Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Aaron Jones exemplified the boom-or-bust player in 2026, with explosive performances of 157 total yards in one game and lackluster showings of just 44 yards in another. These extremes may persist in 2026, particularly with Jordan Love adjusting to his role and Jones encountering more challenging game situations.

–– Kelly Irvin

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Running Back Best Bets

Austin Ekeler plays for the Los Angeles Chargers.

Choose: Ekeler to rush for over 750.5 yards (-112 odds on FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Austin Ekeler, known as one of the league’s best dual-threat running backs, gained 1,637 scrimmage yards last season. With the Chargers bringing in rookie receiver Quentin Johnson and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, I anticipate that Ekeler, now 28 years old, will have a more conventional role this season and focus on running the ball effectively.

–– Evans Santiago

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Choose: Bet on Chubb to finish the NFL season with the most rushing yards (+650 odds on bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Don’t underestimate Nick Chubb’s potential to become the league’s leading rusher at +650 odds on bet365. With Kareem Hunt no longer sharing carries, Chubb will have a chance to showcase his skills with a full workload and the added threat of a passing game from Deshaun Watson. Additionally, Chubb is driven to honor the legacy of Cleveland Browns legend Jim Brown.

–– Mike McClymont

Rashaad Penny, Philadelphia Eagles

Choose Penny to rush for over 600.5 yards (-110 odds on BetMGM) with a three-star rating.

Rashaad Penny is poised to excel with the elite Eagles offensive line paving the way for him to surpass his projected 723 rushing yards. With a conservative estimate and a price of -181 for him to exceed 600.5 rushing yards, there is a positive expected value of 23% over the BetMGM number. This rushing prop pick is my top choice for the 2026 NFL season.

–– Stewart Serena

Christian McCaffrey plays for the San Francisco 49ers.

Choose McCaffrey as the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year with odds of +1400 on FanDuel ⭐⭐

With a plethora of weapons on the 49ers’ offense comes increased competition for opportunities. However, Christian McCaffrey remains in a prime position to be the focal point, especially with a relatively inexperienced quarterback leading the team. McCaffrey’s recent performances, including multiple games with over 100 yards from scrimmage and standout performances of 149, 138, and 193 yards, showcase his ability to lead the charge effectively.

–– Kelly Irvin

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