Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence face off in a highly anticipated rematch in the AFC Divisional Round, with player props and predictions on the line.
We have identified the top player props for Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence in the Week 2 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars game using the most favorable NFL odds from our top sports betting apps.
Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence went head-to-head twice last season, with Mahomes coming out on top in both contests, even after sustaining an ankle injury during the AFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Jaguars.
Under the mentorship of head coach Doug Pederson, Lawrence showed impressive development between Year 1 and Year 2. The real test will be in Year 3 as he aims to continue his growth, take down Mahomes and the Chiefs, and most importantly, exceed expectations in their passing yards showdown.
Below are our top player prop picks for the Patrick Mahomes vs Trevor Lawrence matchup. We have assessed the odds from our recommended NFL betting sites and assigned a confidence rating on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
Week 2 NFL player props: Patrick Mahomes takes on Trevor Lawrence
- Trevor Lawrence is favored to pass for 43.5 yards more than his opponent, with odds of -115 on DraftKings. This bet is rated five stars.
- BetMGM has set the over/under for Trevor Lawrence’s rushing yards at 17.5, with odds of -110. I rate this bet four stars.
- Patrick Mahomes is expected to have less than 301.5 passing yards, with odds of -114 on FanDuel. This prediction is given a 3-star rating.
Player props for Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence.
Trevor Lawrence is favored to pass for 43.5 more yards with odds of -115 on DraftKings, receiving a five-star rating.
When comparing Lawrence and Mahomes in a passing yards matchup, it’s difficult to overlook the disappointing performances of Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney in Week 1. This is especially true now that Lawrence is throwing to Calvin Ridley in Jacksonville.
Analyzing the projections for this prop, Mahomes is expected to have 288.6 passing yards and Lawrence is expected to have 254 passing yards, resulting in a gap of only 34.6 yards. This indicates a preference for Lawrence in this matchup, as DraftKings is offering him 43.5 passing yards against Mahomes, giving us a nine-yard cushion based on our projections.
Furthermore, the weekly prop movements also indicate a preference towards Lawrence. Mahomes began with an initial total of 293.5 passing yards, which has only increased by one yard to 294.5. In contrast, Lawrence started at 247.5 yards and has experienced a substantial increase to 261.5.
It is interesting to note that the gap in passing yards between Lawrence and Mahomes has not kept up with Lawrence’s increasing odds. The initial 46-yard difference in opening odds has now narrowed to just 33 yards, with Lawrence currently at 261.5 yards on DraftKings. Despite this, DraftKings still offers Lawrence at +43.5 in the head-to-head matchup with Mahomes.
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BetMGM is offering odds of -110 for Trevor Lawrence to have under 17.5 rushing yards, with a four-star rating.
Not only are Lawrence’s rushing stats gaining attention this week, but it’s clear why – he rushed for 26 yards in both games against the Chiefs last season and had seven rushing attempts in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts.
Although I understand the significance of the Jaguars’ Week 2 home game against the Chiefs, I believe the coaching staff is likely concerned about Lawrence taking too many hits early in the season, considering the length of the schedule.
At first, Lawrence’s rushing yards were set at 15.5, but later increased to 19.5 at top sports betting sites. However, the market showed resistance at 19.5, causing the number to decrease to 17.5 rushing yards.
There are still 17.5 rushing yards available at BetMGM, with the Under trading at -110. I recommend considering betting on the Under for Lawrence. The Jaguars’ quarterback is projected to rush for 16.9 yards, so we can price the Under at -160.
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Patrick Mahomes is predicted to have fewer than 301.5 passing yards, with odds of -114 on FanDuel. This pick is rated three stars.
After Week 1 of the NFL season, it became clear that the Chiefs defied expectations last season by demonstrating that their offense can thrive without Tyreek Hill. However, the constant loss of offensive weapons may become a challenge for them this season. Although they were missing Travis Kelce in Week 1, it is worth noting that Kelce is approaching 34 years old.
I think there could be a chance to bet against Mahomes’ player props in the early weeks of the season. It’s not that we don’t believe in his talent or the team’s potential, but maybe his passing yards total should be closer to 280.5 rather than 300.5, given the strong offensive weapons he has.
Choosing to bet the Under on Mahomes is not a statement about doubting his status as an elite quarterback, but rather a strategic decision based on the odds available to us.
As previously discussed with the Lawrence +43.5 prop, Mahomes is expected to pass for 288.6 yards against the Jaguars this Sunday. This forecast suggests that we should consider betting on the Under 301.5 yards at FanDuel, which is currently being offered at -114 instead of -169.
Furthermore, I neglected to mention that this price is an outlier. Our other top NFL betting sites are offering Mahomes’ passing yards total at 294.5.
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Player prop picks for Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence were made on September 16, 2026 at 8:15 a.m. ET.
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- Top Sports Betting Sites with the Best Promotions (U.S. Residents Only)
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