Prediction, Pick, and Odds for Bills vs. Dolphins in Week 18 Sunday Night Football

The Buffalo Bills will face off against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18 of Sunday Night Football to determine the winner of the AFC East crown in the 2026 NFL regular season. Our prediction for the Bills vs. Dolphins game is based on the top NFL odds at leading sports betting apps, expecting a strong performance from the favored Buffalo team.

Only a month ago, the Buffalo Bills appeared to be on track for a disappointing 2026 season. However, a sudden winning streak has propelled them into contention as one of the top favorites for the Super Bowl.

Buffalo, with a record of 10-6, is set to face off against the Miami Dolphins, who are 11-5. Buffalo is favored by 3 points in this important AFC East matchup on Sunday Night Football, where the winner will take all.

Despite starting December with a .500 record and facing a challenging NFL schedule, the Bills were not expected to clinch the AFC East championship. However, with four consecutive wins under their belt, they find themselves in a promising position. This is particularly notable given the Dolphins’ recent struggles leading up to their crucial Week 18 showdown.

Here are our top predictions for the Bills vs. Dolphins game on Sunday Night Football, including player props for Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill. Our confidence level for each pick is rated on a 1-to-5-star scale, with odds provided by our top NFL betting sites.

Prediction for Sunday Night Football: Bills versus Dolphins

The Bills are favored by 3 points according to FanDuel with a rating of 4 stars.

This line seems to be biased towards the Bills, who have been receiving a lot of attention from NFL analysts and bettors lately, while overlooking the underdog Miami team. Despite having a better record and both teams having a lot on the line in Sunday’s AFC East title game, Miami is only getting a field goal at home.

This Dolphins team is not the same as the one that beat the Denver Broncos by 50 points in September. Depending on the players who play on Sunday, the 3-point line may not be sufficient.

Tyreek Hill, the driving force behind Miami’s high-scoring offense, seems to have worsened his high ankle sprain in Week 17 and is uncertain for the upcoming game. He has only gained 236 yards and no touchdowns in the three games following the injury, in contrast to his impressive stats of 1,496 yards and 12 touchdowns in the twelve games before the injury.

Jaylen Waddle, the fast receiver on the opposite side of the field, was sidelined last week with an ankle injury and will not be suiting up for Sunday’s game. Similarly, top rusher Raheem Mostert, who has scored 21 touchdowns this season, is also out with knee and ankle issues. Additionally, De’Von Achane, another dynamic running back, was one of 10 players who had limited participation in practice.

Furthermore, the Dolphins’ defense has been greatly impacted by injuries recently. Star pass rusher Bradley Chubb suffered an ACL injury and cornerback Xavien Howard injured his foot during a Week 17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. This game had significant implications for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Additionally, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was sidelined with a shoulder injury, but is expected to play on Sunday, unlike Chubb and Howard.

We can see the impact of those injuries on the Dolphins’ performance on the field. The team squandered a 14-point lead in just three minutes during Week 14, marking the start of their significant injury struggles. Additionally, Miami’s 37-point loss in Week 17 was the worst of the season and the seventh-worst in franchise history.

The Bills have not been performing at the same level in the last month, which is why they are considered heavy favorites.

Buffalo has maintained a perfect 4-0 record in December following their Week 13 bye, boasting the sixth-highest scoring differential of plus-32. This success is consistent with their overall performance, as they currently rank third in weighted DVOA, total DVOA, and net EPA/play, as well as fourth in season-long scoring margin at plus-133.

Recently, the Bills have stood out with their new strategy of dominating opponents with a strong running game and aggressive defense. In their upcoming game against Miami, they will rely on Josh Allen to step up, especially since Miami’s defense is missing their top two pass-rushers. Allen has already proven himself against this defense, throwing for 320 yards and four touchdowns in their previous matchup in Week 4.

Since Sean McDermott took over in 2017, Buffalo has emerged victorious in 12 out of 14 games against Miami, including three consecutive wins against Mike McDaniel. Each of these victories has been by a margin of at least three points, with the most recent win being the largest defeat (28 points) of the McDaniel era up to Week 17.

The teams playing now are different from those in Week 4, which is why the Bills are still favored by a field goal, even though they are playing away. Perhaps the odds aren’t as one-sided as they seem.

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Boost on FanDuel for Bills vs. Dolphins

FanDuel is now offering better odds for Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to each surpass 200 passing yards and for James Cook to exceed 40 rushing yards during Sunday Night Football, with the odds shifting from -120 to +150.

This offer is valid in all legal U.S. sports betting jurisdictions where FanDuel is available.

The best odds for Bills vs. Dolphins

FanDuel (-108)

The Bills are currently favored by 3 points at -110 odds on most top sports betting sites, with the exception of FanDuel offering -108 odds. We suggest placing this bet on FanDuel for better odds.

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The odds for the Bills vs. Dolphins game on Sunday night football.

Analysis of the odds for the Bills vs. Dolphins game

The Bills originally opened at -1.5, but the market quickly adjusted to -3 on all of our top sports betting apps. These apps are all in agreement as we approach Sunday’s regular-season finale to determine the winner of the AFC East.

Buffalo initially received 1.5 points in the Week 17 game, indicating the Dolphins’ struggles with injuries and poor performances as the season comes to a close.

Information about the Sunday Night Football game

• The event will take place on Sunday, January 7th at 8:20 p.m. Eastern Time.
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
• How to watch: NBC
• Weather forecast: 68 degrees with a 35% chance of rain and winds at 8 mph.

Prediction for the Bills-Dolphins game was made on Wednesday at 10:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

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