Skip to main content

Predictions and Picks for NFL Player Props and Odds in the Matchup between Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa

King Orson

Updated on January 7, 2026 at 3:47 PM EST • Read time: 3 minutes and 54 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills walks onto the field against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and we offer our top Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa player props for Week 18 based on the best NFL odds.
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills walks onto the field against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter. Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images via AFP.

Week 18 may be chaotic for bettors looking for predictability, but two starting quarterbacks will have a lot at stake. Let’s analyze the game further with our top player props for Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa based on the best NFL odds.

The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will battle for the top spot in the AFC East on Sunday night in Week 18, with quarterbacks Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa set to start the game.

Have the best sports betting apps adjusted their lines to account for the struggles of both quarterbacks in recent weeks, or is there still value to be found in betting on Unders?

Aside from our NFL Week 18 predictions and player props, we are also providing our top Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa NFL player props for Week 18. Odds are sourced from our preferred NFL betting sites, and confidence levels range from one to five stars.

Player props for Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa in their Week 18 NFL matchup.

Josh Allen is expected to throw less than 1.5 passing touchdowns, with odds of +104 on FanDuel. This bet is rated three stars.

This bet at FanDuel revolves around the number. The other top sports betting sites are offering odds on Allen throwing under 1.5 passing touchdowns at a negative price.

Bet365 is the shortest at -115, followed closely by Caesars at -114. Pinnacle, known for its highly respected trading team in the sports betting industry, has the Under priced at a comparable -112.

The number is already considerably lower than the price we’re paying at FanDuel. Additionally, this bet becomes more attractive when considering that Pinnacle’s odds on the Under decreased to -118 from an opening of -111.

This indicates that there has been significant betting activity on the Under. The Over only saw increased betting when the odds reached a higher price than the typical -120 found at most top sportsbooks.

We are even more inclined to bet the Under because Allen’s average passing touchdowns projection is only 1.66 across eight models, well below the two he needs. Additionally, we are receiving favorable plus-money odds to support these projections.

This content is not meant for MAAffiliate Disclosure: Underscoreg Review may earn advertising commissions for referrals to a sportsbook.

FanDuel is offering a boost for the Bills vs. Dolphins game.

FanDuel is increasing the odds for Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to both achieve 200+ passing yards and for James Cook to reach 40+ rushing yards during Sunday Night Football from -120 to +150!

Offer is valid in all eligible U.S. sports betting markets where FanDuel is licensed to operate.

Josh Allen is favored to score a touchdown at -115 odds according to ESPN BET, earning a three-star rating.

No matter which side of the bet you choose, the outcome will still be the same.

ESPN BET offers bettors the valuable option of betting on “No” in the touchdown-scorers market. This option allows savvy bettors to either find players with shorter odds elsewhere that are now priced appropriately, or to choose to not bet on a player at all. We will choose Option A and target a player with shorter odds.

Currently, the advantage is not as pronounced as I had hoped, mainly due to Caesars offering equally attractive -118 odds on Allen scoring a touchdown. Believe me, I was just as shocked to write that statement as you are to read it.

On the other hand, some of our other websites that feature top sportsbook promotions have significantly lower odds, such as DraftKings and BetMGM offering a -135 price. If you’re curious about the worst odds without a “No” option, take a look at bet365’s -175 odds on this proposition (and no, that’s not a mistake).

Similar to Caesars, FanDuel is offering competitive odds of -120 on this prop bet, which is also the same price as Pinnacle.

While I do have concerns about Allen being relied on to score in the red zone as the playoffs approach, I will defer to the statistics. Allen’s average touchdown projection is 0.64, compared to ESPN BET’s -115 odds which suggest a 53% chance of the quarterback scoring.

Check out our Google News page and hit the “Follow” button (⭐) to stay updated on the newest odds, picks, and news!

BetRivers is offering Tua Tagovailoa to throw for more than 259.5 passing yards at -113 odds, rated three stars.

Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop varies among the top live betting sites. BetMGM has Over 267.5 yards at -120, while Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 all offer the same total at different prices.

Betting on the Over at any of those books would be a losing proposition. FanDuel has a slightly lower total at 262.5, with the Over at -110. While playing this at FanDuel is not a bad choice, BetRivers offers the best value on Tagovailoa’s passing yardage prop.

BetRivers has a lower total of 259.5 compared to other top sportsbooks, with the Over being offered at -113.

Pinnacle initially set Tagovailoa’s passing yards at 264.5, but it has since risen to 267.5 (-118) due to significant movement over the week. The total briefly dropped to 259.5 for three minutes before quickly increasing to 261.5, indicating that the original total was too low.

Tagovailoa is expected to pass for an average of 271.86 yards based on eight projection models. By comparing this projection to the odds at BetRivers, we see a potential 6% +EV on our bet, making it a smart choice for those wanting to bet on both quarterbacks in Sunday night’s game.

Player props for the Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa matchup were set on Friday at 1 p.m. ET.

Note from the editor: Prepare for the debut of Vermont sports betting with our top Vermont sportsbook promotions, and make sure to download the finest Vermont sports betting apps! Must be 21 or older and located in Vermont. If you have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

These are our top NFL betting sites:

  • Use the Caesars Promo Code SBRBONUS1000 and check out our Caesars Review
  • Use the bonus code SBRBONUS on BetMGM and check out our review of the site.
  • Check out our review of bet365 and use the bonus code SBRBONUS to get started.
  • Use the BetRivers Promo Code SBRBONUS and check out our BetRivers Review for more information.
  • Explore our FanDuel Review and unlock exclusive savings with our FanDuel Promo Code.
  • Check out our DraftKings Review and snag a DraftKings Promo Code!

Must be 21 or older. If you have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER. Bonuses are not valid in Ontario.

Related pages

  • Top Sports Betting Sites with the Best Promotions (for U.S. residents only)
Written By:
King Orson
King Orson is a publishing editor for Underscoreg Review. He’s been a Boston Red Sox fan for over 20 years and a Liverpool supporter for nearly a decade. He’s probably watching, talking about, or thinking about sports while you read this.