NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 16: Can Falcons Stay in NFC South Race?

Head coach Arthur Smith of the Atlanta Falcons reacts as we look at our NFL upset picks for Week 16 — Head coach Arthur Smith of the Atlanta Falcons reacts during the game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on December 17, 2026 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images via AFP.

Every week, we analyze three potential NFL upsets that we think could be financially beneficial, and we provide our top three NFL upset picks for Week 16 with the most favorable odds from reputable sportsbooks.

In Week 15 of the 2026 NFL season, there were several surprising outcomes as favorites went 12-4 overall. The top six moneyline favorites all came through with wins at the best sports betting apps.

Despite unfavorable weather conditions, the Carolina Panthers pulled off a major upset by defeating the favored Atlanta Falcons and securing their second win of the season.

Although there are games scheduled for Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week, all of our upset picks for Week 16 are set for Sunday.

Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 16, along with our NFL Week 16 predictions and player props. We have ranked our picks based on confidence levels ranging from 1 to 5 stars, with odds sourced from our preferred NFL betting sites.

Week 16 NFL Upset Predictions

Falcons are the underdogs with a +114 odds according to DraftKings, facing off against the Colts.
Browns are the underdogs at +122 (Caesars) against the Texans ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Titans are the underdogs at +124 according to FanDuel in their matchup against the Seahawks ⭐⭐⭐

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NFL upset predictions

Falcons are the underdogs against Colts, with +114 odds on DraftKings. ⭐⭐⭐

After correctly predicting the Carolina Panthers’ surprise victory over the Falcons last week, we now turn our attention to another team in the NFC South desperate for a win to stay in the playoff race. This team is motivated and eager to come out on top, fully aware of the importance of this game in their quest for divisional success.

The Atlanta game against their opponent in North Carolina was marked by challenging weather conditions that limited both teams’ ability to gain yardage, with neither team surpassing 283 total yards or 4.5 yards per play. However, Atlanta faced a crucial setback in the fourth quarter as turnovers became the deciding factor. They were outscored 6-0 during this period due to critical mistakes such as punting, fumbling, and throwing an interception on their final three possessions, ultimately leading to their defeat.

Even though the Falcons have a record of 6-8 going into this game, their 6-6 start was their strongest since 2017, indicating potential for success with improved ball security. Atlanta has shown better performance at home (4-3) compared to on the road (2-5) this season. The Colts may face challenges as two key offensive players, Michael Pittman Jr. (concussion) and Zack Moss (shoulder), are uncertain to play.

Furthermore, the Colts have the second-lowest point differential (+1) among teams with at least a two-game winning record, and Atlanta has lost each of their last six games by one possession.

DraftKings is our top choice for placing this bet because it is the only one among our top sports betting apps that offers odds better than +110 for betting on the underdogs at the top sportsbooks.

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The Browns are facing off against the Texans with odds of +122 from Caesars, receiving a four-star rating.

The Cleveland Browns have a strong record at home (7-1) compared to on the road (2-4), but with quarterback Joe Flacco leading the way, their versatile offense will be formidable in a dome.

While Cleveland narrowly avoided losing to the Chicago Bears on a dropped Hail Mary attempt last week, there were still positive outcomes from the game. For instance, Amari Cooper and David Njoku became the first pair of Browns teammates in a decade to both surpass 100 yards receiving in the same game, a feat not achieved since 2013.

Furthermore, Flacco’s 939 passing yards rank as the fifth-highest in history for a quarterback’s first three games with a team. His impressive performance was instrumental in the Browns securing their second winning season in the past 16 years. The team has shown resilience in close games, boasting a perfect 5-0 record in games decided by three points or fewer.

C.J. Stroud may not play for the Houston Texans this week, and even if he does, the last time he faced a strong pass rush from the New York Jets, his performance was subpar with season-lows in completion percentage (43.5%), yards per attempt (4.0), and QBR (6.5).

The Browns defense should give the Houston quarterback the same tough treatment they have given 10 opponents this season, holding them to fewer than 300 total yards (the most since 1957). Myles Garrett has achieved a career-high 21 pass rush wins in the last two weeks.

Caesars stands out as the top choice among our selection of sports betting sites for placing a bet on the Browns with odds exceeding +120. To maximize your potential winnings on a Browns victory, make sure to take advantage of our exclusive Caesars promo code: SBRBONUS1000.

Titans vs. Seahawks – Titans are the underdogs with +124 odds on FanDuel. ⭐⭐⭐

After the Seattle Seahawks secured a thrilling come-from-behind victory on Monday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Tennessee Titans suffered a heartbreaking 19-16 overtime loss to the Texans, knocking them out of playoff contention. Despite this, the spread being under a field goal has us leaning towards backing the Titans due to speculative reasons. It seems that oddsmakers may be aware of a potential letdown for Seattle, leading us to believe that Tennessee could have a strong chance of covering the spread.

The Seahawks face a tough challenge with a quick turnaround and a long flight to play in the early 1 p.m. ET time slot. On the other hand, the Titans may have an advantage in playing a non-divisional game, as they have struggled with a 0-4 record against AFC South teams.

Another reason for optimism from Tennessee is that Seattle only gained 297 total yards against an Eagles defense that was ranked ninth in yards per attempt and fifth in passer rating allowed since Week 9. Additionally, the Seahawks allowed the Eagles to break a six-game streak of being outgained (their longest streak since 2015) and a six-game streak of allowing at least two passing touchdowns.

FanDuel is currently offering excellent value compared to its closest competitor, Caesars, which offers +118 moneyline odds. With Seattle’s recent high-profile win on national television, we anticipate the line will shift in their favor at top sportsbooks. It may be wise to wait and see if better odds for the Titans become available at reputable sports betting sites.

NFL upset selections made at 6:44 a.m. ET on December 19, 2026.

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Written By:
Allen Byron

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”