NCAA Tournament 2023: March Madness Betting Trends

With the bracket in hand, it’s time to explore all 68 teams set to compete in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Keep reading for our top March Madness betting trends.

The madness is about to unfold as the 2023 NCAA Tournament gets underway. It’s now time to determine which team will emerge victorious and be crowned champions. According to historical trends, the eventual winner is likely to come from the top six teams on Ken Pomeroy’s overall ratings entering the tournament. This means that only Houston, UCLA, Alabama, UConn, Tennessee, and Texas are considered strong contenders for the title.

March Madness is about more than just crowning a champion. The tournament thrives on upsets and surprise Final Four runs. Before diving into all the action, let’s take a closer look at each of the 68 teams in the Big Dance and highlight an important tidbit about each squad.

These are the top March Madness betting trends, compiled from various analytical sites including KenPom, BartTorvik, Synergy Sports Technology, ShotQuality, EvanMiya, and Haslametrics.

Betting trends for March Madness in the South region are as follows:

No. 1 seed: Alabama

It has been a decade since the No. 1 overall seed emerged victorious in the NCAA Tournament, but the Crimson Tide are aiming to end that streak with a young team that excels at shooting 3-pointers. Alabama, the No. 1 seed for the 2023 NCAA Tournament, is considered one of the top contenders according to March Madness odds and is known for their strong defense. Leading the tournament in 2-point defense and ranking third in 3-point defense, the Crimson Tide are a force to be reckoned with.

No. 2 seed: Arizona

Arizona has a fast-paced offense that has led them to an Over record of 18-16, surpassing the point total in seven of their last 10 games. The team ranks third in effective field goal percentage, with Azuolas Tubelis leading the way with an average of 19.8 points per game.

No. 3 seed: Baylor

Despite having the best backcourt in the country and being ranked No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency, the Bears struggle defensively, with 103 teams performing better in that area. Despite this imbalance, Baylor had a 17-15 Over record this season.

No. 4 seed: Virginia

Despite having a national title on his resume, Cavaliers head coach Tony Bennett has a track record of 10-15 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament and 9-12 as a favorite. Over his last 11 tournament games, he has only won 3 out of 8. His team appears vulnerable against a skilled Furman program in the first round.

San Diego State is the No. 5 seed.

The Aztecs have a 6-14 overall record in their 14 NCAA Tournament appearances and have not won a game since 2015. San Diego State ranks 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency, resulting in an 18-14 record against the Under. As the Mountain West champions, they have a shot at reaching the second weekend for only the third time in program history.

No. 6 seed: Creighton

Creighton, once considered a preseason dark horse, fell short of expectations this year with a 16-17 record against the spread. Despite being underdogs only five times, they managed to cover in two of those games.

No. 7 seed: Missouri

In his first year as head coach, Dennis Gates has the Tigers performing well on the court, turning around their 12-21 record from last season. With Missouri’s 10th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency and fast pace, they have been scoring plenty of points and hitting the over in 18 out of 33 games. The team has surpassed the point total in three of their last four games.

No. 8 seed: Maryland

In his debut season as head coach, Kevin Willard has Maryland performing well at home, but their struggles on the road suggest a deep tournament run may be unlikely. The Terrapins posted a 16-1 record at home, but only managed a 5-11 record in all other games this season. According to Haslametrics, Maryland’s away-from-home rating of -1.84 ranked 304th in the nation.

West Virginia is the No. 9 seed.

WVU is ranked 334th in the nation for ineffective 3-point shooting, leading to ShotQuality grading six of their losses as wins based on shot selection. When their perimeter shots are on target, coach Bob Huggins’ team can go on a winning streak. However, it might be more beneficial to bet on West Virginia’s totals in the tournament since they had a 21-12 Over record this season.

Utah State is seeded number 10.

Beware of the Aggies this weekend as Utah State ranks 12th in effective field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point percentage in the country. Under head coach Ryan Odom, the team has a record of 20-13 against the Over this year, with a 9-3 record when both teams have equal rest.

NC State is the No. 11 seed.

One reliable aspect of the Wolfpack is their ability to protect the ball. Despite losing three of their last four games, only two college basketball teams have a lower turnover rate than NC State.

The College of Charleston is seeded No. 12.

Earlier this season, the College of Charleston earned its first AP Poll ranking in 20 years and went on to win the CAA conference. The Cougars are poised to be a popular upset pick in March Madness, and with good reason. They rank ninth in the country for 3-point attempts, making 33.3% of them.

No. 13 seed: Furman

Furman has the second-best 2-point shooting percentage in college basketball, making 59.1% of their shots this season. This marks the Paladins’ first appearance in the tournament since 1980, and with an 18-13 ATS record this season, they could be a strong pick to cover the spread in the opening round.

UC Santa Barbara is the No. 14 seed.

The Gauchos excel at scoring near the basket, ranking in the 96th percentile for frequency at the rim according to Synergy. Keep an eye on UC Santa Barbara as they face Baylor on Friday afternoon, as Baylor’s head coach Scott Drew’s team is lacking their usual rim protection.

No. 15 seed: Princeton

After winning both the Ivy League tournament and regular-season crown, Princeton has returned to the March Madness field for the first time since 2017. The Tigers excel at limiting opponents’ offensive rebounds, boasting a strong defensive rebound rate of 22.8%, which ranks ninth in the nation.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is seeded No. 16.

Following their defeat in the First Four last season, the Islanders are determined to secure their first victory in the tournament. Texas A&M Corpus Christi boasts the second-highest free throw percentage in the nation at 80%, making them a reliable team when it comes to hitting their shots from the charity stripe.

Sixteenth seed: Southeast Missouri State

The Southeast Missouri State Redhawks have had a successful season, ranking in the top 10 in adjusted tempo and finishing with a 21-12 record against the Over. They have consistently exceeded the point total by an average of six points per game. Additionally, SEMO ranks 30th in free throw rate, indicating that they are likely to draw many fouls and have numerous opportunities at the line. This will be the program’s first appearance in the NCAA Tournament since 2000.

Are you planning on filling out a bracket this year? Be sure to read our guide for tips on creating a winning March Madness bracket, grab our free printable bracket, and follow our expert predictions. Also, don’t miss out on these free bracket challenges for March Madness.

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Betting trends for March Madness in the East region are showing a strong interest from bettors.

No. 1 seed: Purdue

The Boilermakers, the last No. 1 seed, seem to be somewhat overlooked despite having a dominating 7-foot-4 center. Zach Edey, who is averaging a double-double of 22.3 points and 12.8 rebounds per game, leads the nation with a Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) of 6.91 according to EvanMiya.com.

No. 2 seed: Marquette

After departing VCU, head coach Shaka Smart has not fared well in the NCAA Tournament, going winless in four games both straight up and against the spread. The team suffered a devastating 95-63 loss to North Carolina in last year’s opening round. However, the Golden Eagles have had a remarkable season this year, clinching the Big East regular-season crown and tournament title despite being predicted to finish ninth in the preseason. Keep an eye on point guard Tyler Kolek, who is sure to deliver some exciting moments in March.

Kansas State is the No. 3 seed.

Despite being predicted to finish last in the Big 12, first-year head coach Jerome Tang guided Kansas State to 23 wins and a top-three finish in the league. The Wildcats’ biggest challenge lies in their performance on the road, as they excelled with a 16-1 record straight up and 13-4 against the spread at home, but struggled with a 4-7 SU and 5-6 ATS in away games.

No. 4 seed: Tennessee

Tennessee has advanced past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament only once during head coach Rick Barnes’ tenure. Barnes has a record of 8-19 against the spread in the tournament. The Volunteers are ranked No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, but their offense is lacking, especially since losing their top player, Zakai Zeigler, to a season-ending injury.

No. 5 seed: Duke

Even without Coach K, Jon Scheyer has led the Blue Devils to a nine-game win streak and they are currently playing at their peak performance. The most noticeable improvement has been on the defensive end, with Duke now ranking 24th in adjusted efficiency. As a result, the Blue Devils have been successful in hitting the Under, with a record of 20-13-1.

No. 6 seed: Kentucky

Head coach John Calipari has not won a game in the NCAA Tournament in four years, with last year’s loss to Saint Peter’s still a painful memory. However, Calipari has a strong track record in the tournament with a 31-23-3 ATS record, making the Wildcats a potential dark horse in a competitive region.

Michigan State is the No. 7 seed.

In January and February, Tom Izzo has a record of 22-22-2 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament. He has only covered the spread in one of his last four games, going back to the 2019 championship game. The Spartans heavily rely on their 3-point shooting, as they rank fourth in the country with a 39.5% accuracy rate from beyond the arc.

No. 8 seed: Memphis

Led by point guard Kendric Davis and head coach Penny Hardaway, Memphis is poised for success in March. The Tigers secured a victory over Houston in the AAC championship game on Selection Sunday and have a record of 9-2 since early February. This strong performance has earned them a momentum ranking of 17th at Haslametrics.

Florida Atlantic is the No. 9 seed.

Florida Atlantic dominated the Conference USA with an 18-2 record and boasts balanced performance on offense and defense. The Owls rank in the 30s in both offensive and defensive efficiency, contributing to their impressive 21-10-1 cover rate, the fourth-best in college basketball this year.

No. 10 seed: USC

Like always, USC’s roster this year is dominated by players with a strong presence in the interior. The Trojans are ranked fifth in average height, which explains their impressive 2-point defense, the second best in the nation at 42.4%.

No. 11 seed: Providence

Providence ended the year on a three-game losing streak, placing 322nd in the momentum metric at Haslametrics. The Friars have only covered the spread in one of their last five games. However, despite these recent struggles, Providence still boasts a strong offensive presence, ranking 16th in adjusted efficiency.

Oral Roberts is the No. 12 seed.

Oral Roberts, undefeated since January 9th, enters the tournament with the longest current winning streak in the nation at 17 games. Fans of basketball should keep an eye on the Golden Eagles, who reached the Sweet 16 two years ago and are now led by senior guard Max Abmas. They are expected to be a popular choice for a Cinderella team in March Madness this week.

No. 13 seed: Louisiana

The Ragin’ Cajuns rely heavily on big man Jordan Brown, who is 56th in the nation in usage rating this season. Brown is putting up impressive averages of 19.4 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, and his contributions have been crucial in securing the program’s first tournament appearance since 2014.

Montana State is the No. 14 seed.

For the second consecutive year, the Bobcats are celebrating their Big Sky title win by securing a spot in the dance. Montana State, with their fifth place ranking in the nation for free throw rate, is an attractive pick for a large spread in the first round. This team proved their worth by going 19-11-2 ATS this season.

No. 15 seed: Vermont

After a close four-point loss to Arkansas in last year’s opening-round game, the Catamounts are determined to come back stronger after winning the American East again. However, it is worth mentioning that this year’s Vermont team is ranked 57 spots lower on KenPom’s overall ratings. With a record of 3-6 as an underdog this season, Vermont may not be the most attractive choice for this year’s tournament.

Texas Southern is the No. 16 seed.

Texas Southern has been on fire in the market recently, with three consecutive games where they have exceeded expectations by an average of 6.6 points. This hot streak has helped them secure the SWAC championship.

Fairleigh Dickinson is the No. 16 seed.

Fairleigh Dickinson qualified for the tournament despite losing the Northeast Conference championship game to Merrimack, thanks to an NCAA rule that allows teams in a four-year transition to Division I to still compete. The Knights have a low defensive efficiency ranking of 361 out of 363 teams, but they managed to go 14-15-1 against the Over.

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Betting trends for March Madness in the Midwest region are on the rise.

No. 1 seed: Houston

Throughout much of the year, head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team has held the top spot on KenPom and is now in contention for a national championship in Houston. The Cougars excel in both 2-point and 3-point defense, making them a formidable force on the defensive end of the court.

No. 2 seed: Texas

The Longhorns are peaking at the right time, entering the tournament with a four-game win streak and a dominant performance against Kansas in the Big 12 championship game. In the month of March, Texas ranks No. 2 in T-Rank and leads college basketball in adjusted defensive efficiency.

No. 3 seed: Xavier

In his first year as head coach, Sean Miller has led Xavier to the NCAA Tournament, where they are currently third in the country in 3-point percentage at 39.5%. The Musketeers have a strong track record of covering the Over, going 14-6-1 when they have two or three days of rest before a game.

No. 4 seed: Indiana

The Hoosiers had a 15-16-2 record against the spread this season, with all 15 of their covers happening at home where they went 15-2 ATS. Senior center Trayce Jackson-Davis has been dominant, averaging 20.8 points and 11 rebounds per game. However, Indiana’s success will heavily rely on their guard play, with Jalen Hood-Schifino being a key player to watch.

No. 5 seed: Miami

The Hurricanes had a successful season, winning 25 games, and their skilled backcourt has the potential to replicate their Elite Eight performance from last year. With a ranking of 28th in Division I experience, the Hurricanes are known for their explosive offense. They had a record of 14-17-1 when it came to hitting the Over in games.

Iowa State is the No. 6 seed.

Iowa State, a No. 11 seed last year, reached the Sweet 16. With the second-highest turnover rate in the league this season, the Cyclones are expected to be a challenging opponent in March.

Texas A&M is the No. 7 seed.

When it comes to March Madness, strong guard play is crucial, and the Aggies are lucky to have Wade Taylor IV leading the way. The sophomore’s impressive performance helped Texas A&M reach the SEC title game, where he averaged 16.5 points and four assists per game. Although the team excels in offensive rebounding, their 32.8% shooting from beyond the arc is an area that needs improvement.

No. 8 seed: Iowa

This season, the Hawkeyes have been high-scoring, averaging 80.2 points per game and leading to a 19-13 record against the Over. Head coach Fran McCaffery has a 6-9 record Against the Spread in the tournament, failing to cover in the last three games. Iowa has not advanced to the second weekend of the tournament since 1999.

No. 9 seed: Auburn

The Tigers, under the leadership of head coach Bruce Pearl, faced difficulties on the road, ranking 193rd in non-home games according to Haslametrics. However, Auburn will have the advantage of playing in Birmingham during the opening weekend. Pearl’s tournament record stands at 13-12-1 against the spread, with a strong 7-2 record as an underdog.

Penn State is the No. 10 seed.

Penn State, led by All-American Jalen Pickett, reached the Big Ten championship game as the No. 10 seed. The team’s success largely depends on Pickett’s performance, as they hold a 10-3 record when he scores 20 or more points. This trend will be crucial as they embark on their first tournament appearance since 2011.

Mississippi State is the No. 11 seed.

The Bulldogs excel defensively, ranking sixth in adjusted efficiency, but struggle offensively with a 3-point percentage of 26.6%, which is 363rd in the country. As a result, Mississippi State had a record of 20-13 in games that went under the total this year.

No. 11 seed: Pittsburgh

Despite being predicted to finish last in the ACC, the Panthers have defied expectations by earning a spot in the tournament for the first time since 2016. Although they have struggled in their recent games, losing three out of their last four and missing out on a chance to win the ACC title. Pittsburgh had a strong record against the spread at 22-10-1 and a winning record of 21-12 in Over/Under bets.

No. 12 seed: Drake

Drake won the Missouri Valley Tournament for the first time since 2008, securing a spot in the Big Dance. The Bulldogs, known for their strong defensive rebounding this season, have a 6-5 record in the NCAA Tournament and scored a First Four victory over Wichita State in their last appearance in 2021.

Kent State is the No. 13 seed.

Kent State has the potential to be the underdog success story of the year. With a top 40 ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency, a skilled point guard leading the team, and a roster with top 60 average Division I experience, the Golden Flashes are a team to watch. Their impressive 20-11-1 ATS record this year is further proof of their potential for success. Keep an eye on Kent State as they make their mark in the tournament.

Kennesaw State is the 14th seed.

Three years ago, the Owls were a team with only one win, but now they are on their way to the NCAA Tournament for the first time as a Division I program after emerging victorious in the ASUN tournament. KSU has become the first team since BYU in 2001 to make it to the NCAA Tournament in less than five years after a season with just one or zero wins.

No. 15 seed: Colgate

Despite winning the Patriot League four times in the last five years, Colgate has yet to secure a victory in the NCAA Tournament. The Raiders have struggled against top-tier opponents, with a 1-10 record against Quad 1 teams since 2018 and a T-Rank of 335th in those matchups. It is clear that their current style of play is not effective against high-level competition.

Northern Kentucky is the No. 16 seed.

The Norse present a challenge for opponents with their matchup zone defense and deliberate pace of play, ranking 358th in adjusted tempo. Consider supporting Northern Kentucky in the first half, as they consistently outscored their opponents by an average of nine points in the opening period while dominating the Horizon League.

Betting trends for March Madness in the West region

No. 1 seed: Kansas

Bill Self, the outstanding coach of the Jayhawks, has once again led them to an outright regular-season championship in the Big 12. When given adequate time to prepare, he consistently develops effective game plans. However, in quick turnaround situations such as the Round of 32 and Elite Eight, Self’s record drops to just 11-15 ATS with only two days between games in the NCAA Tournament.

No. 2 seed: UCLA

Injuries may hinder the Bruins’ chances of winning the championship, but their top-ranked team in adjusted defensive efficiency is crucial for success in March. This season, UCLA went 18-16 against the spread, with a record of 5-3 when playing with one day of rest.

No. 3 seed: Gonzaga

Gonzaga is quietly making waves in March as they navigate unfamiliar territory without a No. 1 seed. The Bulldogs dominated in the WCC title game against Saint Mary’s and currently lead the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Over has hit in eight of Gonzaga’s last 10 games, with five of those surpassing the point total by double-digits.

No. 4 seed: UConn

UConn stood out as the top-performing team against the spread among the top college basketball teams, boasting a 20-10-1 record. The Huskies excelled with a perfect 10-0-1 record in nonconference games, indicating their strength outside of Big East competition. Additionally, UConn leads the nation in offensive rebound rate at an impressive 39.2%.

Saint Mary’s is the No. 5 seed.

This season’s Gaels, led by head coach Randy Bennett, are the highest-ranked team he has ever coached, sitting at No. 11 in KenPom’s overall ratings. Known for their strong defense, they also play at a deliberately slow pace compared to other teams in the nation.

No. 6 seed: TCU

In a season filled with injuries, TCU is a popular underdog pick to have a successful postseason. Despite ranking in the top 1% in transition offense, the Horned Frogs struggle from beyond the arc, ranking 321st in 3-point percentage. TCU finished the season with a 16-16-1 record against the spread, with half of those covers coming after a loss.

No. 7 seed: Northwestern

The Wildcats have struggled in four out of their last five games leading up to the tournament, but managed to secure a second place finish in the competitive Big Ten conference. Northwestern’s 12th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency is sure to cause problems for their opponents this weekend.

No. 8 seed: Arkansas

After reaching the Elite Eight in consecutive seasons, the Razorbacks, led by head coach Eric Musselman, are a formidable team to watch in the postseason. Musselman boasts a 13-6 record in postseason play, making Arkansas a serious contender. Known for their proficiency in transition, the Razorbacks are ranked eighth in this category and have recently welcomed back guard Nick Smith Jr., a potential NBA lottery pick, to their lineup.

No. 9 seed: Illinois

In the last three NCAA Tournament games, head coach Brad Underwood has failed to cover the spread since 2019. However, Illinois has a strong track record of going 5-1 against the spread as an underdog this season. Their ability to defeat top teams was evident in a November victory over UCLA.

Boise State is the No. 10 seed.

The Broncos’ performance in their last 13 games showed the market catching up with them as they only covered the spread in three of those games. However, Boise State had a strong record of 7-3-1 as an underdog this year, which is a promising sign for head coach Leon Rice’s team heading into the opening weekend.

Arizona State is the No. 11 seed.

The Sun Devils secured their spot in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019 with a thrilling buzzer-beater victory over Arizona on Feb. 25th. Bobby Hurley has a 1-3 ATS record in the tournament, including two lopsided losses with ASU. Arizona State is ranked sixth in 2-point defense, holding opponents to a 43.8% shooting percentage on those attempts.

No. 11 seed: Nevada

The Wolf Pack have dropped three consecutive games and four of their last six, placing 272nd in momentum at Haslametrics. Nevada boasts a 79.2% free-throw shooting percentage, ranking sixth in the sport. Opponents should prioritize keeping the Wolf Pack off the free-throw line.

No. 12 seed: VCU

Without winning a weak A10, the Rams would probably have been excluded from the tournament. Luckily, head coach Mike Rhoades’ team is now in the tournament and poised to cause chaos with a turnover rate of 24.1%, which ranks sixth in the nation.

No. 13 seed: Iona

Under the leadership of head coach Rick Pitino, the Gaels are on a roll with the third-longest current win streak of 14 games. Although Iona was considered an underdog just once this season, they defied the odds as a 16.5-point underdog against Alabama in the first round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

Grand Canyon is the No. 14 seed.

Grand Canyon has secured victories in six consecutive games, surpassing the 80-point mark in four of those contests. They currently rank 23rd in 3-point shooting and their upcoming game against Gonzaga could resemble an NBA-style high-scoring affair. Grand Canyon leads college basketball with a 24-8 record in Over bets.

UNC Asheville is the No. 15 seed.

The Bulldogs are on a nine-game winning streak as they head to their first tournament appearance in seven years after winning the Big South. Led by forward Drew Pember, this squad has an average Division I experience of 3.12 years, making them one of the most experienced teams in the country with only 11 rosters having more experience.

No. 16 seed: Howard

After a nearly 30-year drought, the Howard men’s basketball team secured a spot in the NCAA tournament by winning both the MEAC Tournament and regular-season title. Despite their struggles with turnovers on offense, ranking 356th in the nation, the Bison managed to go undefeated in the conference tournament, surpassing the point total in all three games by at least nine points.

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