Predictions and Picks for the 2023 Preakness Stakes: Will Mage Continue on the Road to the Triple Crown?

With just seven horses in the 148th running of the Preakness Stakes, the smallest field since 1986, horseplayers will face a tricky puzzle when trying to parse the odds. In this article, we will provide our free Preakness Stakes picks and predictions based on the odds from our top horse racing betting sites.

In the past two decades, 10 favorites have emerged victorious at the Pimlico Race Course. Oxbow, who had odds of 15-1, holds the record for being the longest shot to win the Preakness in the 21st century. Additionally, between 2010 and 2019, seven horses with single-digit odds at the Preakness Stakes went on to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

However, Justify was the final favorite to win the Preakness in 2018. Since then, we have seen victories from War of Will at odds of 6-1, filly Swiss Skydiver at 11-1, Rombauer at 11-1, and last year’s champion, Early Voting at 6-1.

This is not a good sign for Mage, the 8-11 morning-line favorite and Kentucky Derby champion. This leads us to another interesting trend – only five times this century has a horse won the Preakness after taking Derby weekend off.

Mage is unlucky as out of the 18 starters in the Derby going to Pimlico, only three have won since 2017, with Cloud Computing, Rombauer, and Early Voting claiming victory. The most recent Derby horse to win the Preakness was War of Will in 2019.

Recency bias, anyone?

Below are our top Preakness Stakes selections and forecasts for 2023 at Pimlico Race Course, with odds sourced from our preferred horse racing betting platforms. The confidence level of each pick is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Preakness Stakes odds

The Preakness Stakes odds were last updated on Friday, May 19.

Take a look at our Preakness Stakes odds and starting positions.

Predictions and picks for the Preakness Stakes

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Seven-out: Blazing Sevens (Part 7 of 7)

Why is Blazing Sevens a risky bet on your tickets? To begin with, he is a closer in a race that typically does not favor that type of horse. While having a closer on your tickets can be beneficial, you do not want them to be the top choice. In this case, there are stronger late runners in the field, such as the 8-5 morning-line favorite and Kentucky Derby winner, Mage.

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Secondly, Blazing Sevens seemed to reach his peak at the age of 2 with impressive wins in his debut and the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, along with a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes. However, since the start of 2023, Blazing Sevens has struggled with a disappointing eighth-place finish by 26 lengths in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, where he finished six lengths behind Tapit Trice and Verifying. In both races, he lost ground in the stretch, indicating a difficulty in handling two turns or the distance of 9 1/2 furlongs.

Thirdly, Blazing Sevens is expected to attract a large amount of money due to his strong connections with trainer Chad Brown and Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Brown has had success in the past, winning the Preakness with Early Voting and Cloud Computing after skipping the Kentucky Derby. Bettors are aware of this trend and, when combined with the Brown-Ortiz partnership, Blazing Sevens’ odds are likely to decrease even further from the already low 6-1. Luck is not on the horizon for this horse.

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This Preakness Stakes underdog to watch is Perform, starting at Post 6 with odds of 20-1.

The owners of this Good Magic progeny have shown their confidence by paying a $150,000 supplemental fee to secure Perform a spot in the Pimlico starting gate for Saturday. Similarly, last year the owners of Creative Minister paid the same fee and saw their colt finish third to Early Voting and eventual Champion, three-year-old Epicenter.

However, it should be noted that Perform took six attempts to win his first race and has only competed in one non-graded stakes race.

However, a key principle of this sport is that horses, much like humans, mature at varying rates. When Perform won his first race at Tampa Bay Downs by almost three lengths, a switch seemed to flip. He then went on to secure a thrilling victory in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park, earning a spot in the Preakness. Despite a rough start, encountering traffic on the backstretch, weaving through horses in the final stretch, and making a late push at the finish line, Perform emerged victorious.

In the two races at two turns, Perform has increased his Equibase Speed Figure by a total of 20 points. His trainer, Shug McGaughey, is known for his expertise with late-blooming colts. Perform’s pedigree showcases a mix of speed, class, and stamina.

In conclusion, you have the opportunity to bet on a promising colt with high odds who may not come in first but is worth including in your exacta, trifecta, and superfecta bets.

Our top pick: National Treasure (Part 1 of 9)

No, that wasn’t a mistake. We intentionally did not type “Mage” here. It’s not that we dislike the Kentucky Derby winner, who could very well win this race without surprise. However, we are not fans of the lack of value, closers at the Preakness, the expected slow pace, Mage’s tendency for slow starts, and we don’t want to jump on the crowded bandwagon.

What are we looking for? Front-end speed, which National Treasure possesses. We highly value it in this particular race, where there are no other front runners except for the underperforming Coffeewithchris. With First Mission withdrawn from the race, National Treasure is likely to take the lead or allow Coffeewithchris to lead until he realizes he is out of his depth in his first graded stakes race and falls behind as the race progresses.

What other aspects are we excited about? National Treasure’s new blinkers are expected to help the Quality Road colt concentrate on utilizing his natural speed. In his recent races, National Treasure has achieved Equibase Speed Figures of 101 (Santa Anita Derby), 101 (Sham Stakes), and 100 (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile). Despite finishing third in the Sham and BC Juvenile, and encountering traffic issues in the Santa Anita Derby where he finished fourth, National Treasure was only within 3 ½ lengths of the winner in each race. It is important to note that the BC Juvenile and Santa Anita Derby are prestigious races known for attracting top 2- and 3-year-olds in the division.

Also, another reason we enjoy this place is Bob Baffert. The legendary trainer has returned to the Triple Crown scene after being suspended for medication issues following the Derby two years ago. Whenever Baffert enters a 3-year-old race, it’s worth paying attention, analyzing, and possibly placing a bet or two. With seven Preakness titles under his belt, it’s hard to argue against the saying “Don’t bet against Baffert.” A win here would give him his record-breaking eighth victory.

Baffert is the one who can unlock the keys to the Triple Crown treasure chest, even with an unfocused but talented colt. We are fully committed to this treasure hunt.

Preakness Stakes info

Event: The race will take place at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, MD on Saturday, May 20 at 6:50 p.m. ET. Coverage of the event will begin on NBC at 1 p.m. ET. The purse for the race is $1.5 million and last year’s winner was Early Voting.

Key information for betting on the Preakness Stakes

What type of horse typically emerges victorious at the Preakness Stakes? With a distance of 1 3/16 miles, the Preakness allows for a diverse range of running styles to succeed in its winner’s circle.

There are several ways to win a race. You can win from the front, like Triple Crown winners American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018), or like Oxbow (2013), Big Brown (2010), Smarty Jones (2004), or Funny Cide (2003). Alternatively, you can win by pressing the pace-setters, like Early Voting last year, Swiss Skydiver (2020), or California Chrome (2014). Finally, you can win by stalking, as seen with Rombauer (2021), War of Will (2019), Cloud Computing (2017), and I’ll Have Another (2012).

What about closers? They may not be the best option for the top of your ticket. The last closer to win the Preakness was Exaggerator in 2016, who was the only champion closer in the past 12 years and benefited from a sloppy track.

Preakness Stakes betting strategies

When constructing your betting tickets, make sure to include closers on the back end of your vertical exotics like exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. Remember, as we mentioned before, closers are essential for a successful betting strategy.

History requires it. Although closers may not always win the Preakness, they often finish in the top positions and bring in significant payouts.

In the past few years, there have been some surprising finishes in the Preakness Stakes. In 2017, Senior Investment finished third at 31-1 and became a profitable savings plan. In 2018, Tenfold ran second at 26-1. The following year, Jesus’ Team finished third at 40-1 while Everfast finished second at 29-1. And in 2015, Tale of Verve shocked everyone by finishing second at 28-1, balancing out American Pharoah’s 4-5 odds in winning the Preakness.

Once more, Mage is a strong contender who has the potential to emerge victorious in the Preakness. His pedigree and previous victories against tougher competition at Churchill Downs two weeks ago prove his talent. However, recent trends indicate that horses with front-end speed may have an edge in this race.

Preakness Stakes selections were made on 5/18/2023 at 8:45 a.m. ET.

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