UConn vs. USC Prediction & Odds: Monday's Women's Elite Eight

Paige Bueckers #5 to head coach Geno Auriemma of the Connecticut Huskies as we offer our UConn vs. USC prediction and pick for the Elite Eight of the women's NCAA Tournament on Monday at the Moda Center in Portland, Ore. — Paige Bueckers #5 to head coach Geno Auriemma of the Connecticut Huskies during the first half against the Duke Blue Devils in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament at Moda Center on March 30, 2024 in Portland, Oregon. Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images via AFP.

On Monday, all eyes will be on Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins as the USC Trojans take on the UConn Huskies in the Elite Eight of the women’s NCAA Tournament. We will provide our top prediction and bet for the UConn vs. USC matchup, taking into account the most recent Women’s March Madness odds.

Although Caitlin Clark and the national title rematch between Iowa and LSU are drawing attention, top-seeded USC Trojans (29-5) and No. 3 seed UConn Huskies (32-5) will also showcase their talent in the Elite Eight at the Moda Center in Portland, Ore on Monday.

UConn is favored by 3.5 points in Monday’s game according to top sports betting sites. The game will begin at 9:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Paige Bueckers once again proved herself as the top player in women’s basketball with a deliberate showing in the Sweet 16, putting up a game-high 24 points in 40 minutes to lead UConn to the Elite Eight. Likewise, USC standout JuJu Watkins led the Trojans with 30 points to edge out Baylor and advance to Monday’s highly anticipated matchup.

In addition to our LSU vs. Iowa prediction, we are providing our top UConn vs. USC prediction for March Madness. These predictions are based on odds from our recommended March Madness betting sites and are rated on a 1-to-5-star scale for confidence.

Game information for the UConn vs. USC matchup, with UConn ranked at number 3 and USC ranked at number 1.

When: Monday, April 1
Tip-off: 9:15 p.m. ET
Location: Moda Center in Portland, Oregon.
How to watch: ESPN
Top pick: UConn -3.5 with -110 odds at BetMGM.

UConn vs. USC odds

Teams	Moneyline	Spread	Total
UConn	-175	-3.5 (-110)	Over: 135.5
USC	+140	+3.5 (-110)	Under: 135.5

UConn vs. USC prediction

USC +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Top odds: -110 available at BetMGM

I initially identified USC as the most underrated team in the bracket with 50/1 odds to win the championship. Although their odds have since decreased, it seems like the market is still underestimating the Trojans.

The team was in a tough spot against a strong Baylor team on Saturday, but Watkins stepped up by scoring nine of her team’s last 10 points to break a 64-64 tie and lead her team to victory. However, it was USC’s deep bench that ultimately made the difference, sparking an 8-0 run in the fourth quarter to shift the momentum in their favor.

This presents a significant advantage for the opposing team, UConn, as they only utilized six players in their win over Duke on Saturday. Four of those players were on the court for 38 to 40 minutes, highlighting a recurring problem for the Huskies throughout the tournament. UConn heavily depends on Bueckers and their strong defense to secure victories due to their limited roster caused by injuries.

I have doubts that this strategy will be successful with only two days of rest against a USC team that has greater depth, size, and multiple ways to win on Monday. The outcome of the game may hinge on Watkins’ knack for drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line, a skill she showcased by getting to the line 13 times in the Sweet 16. If she can put UConn’s starting players in foul trouble early on, the Huskies will struggle to keep up in the later stages of the game.

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Analysis of the UConn vs. USC spread and Over/Under

Despite being the higher seed, UConn is only a 3.5-point favorite over USC in Monday’s matchup according to our top sportsbooks. This spread is lower than what most projection models predict, but it could be due to the fatigue and personnel issues that Connecticut is facing with a limited six-player rotation.

The consensus total for the game is 135.5 across our top sports betting apps, making it one of the lower numbers in the tournament. This total is nearly 35 points lower than Monday’s first game between LSU and Iowa. The credit for this low total goes to the stellar UConn defense. However, with Bueckers and Watkins in action, we may still see some exciting plays on the court.

Prediction for the UConn vs. USC game was made on Monday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Morgan Xaviero

Morgan Xaviero is a publishing editor and lead writer for Underscoreg Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, “C-Jax” has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Underscoreg Review team. He’s a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels’ championship run through the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he’s played a key role in Underscoreg Review’s coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he’s cashed some big bets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — he’s still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed “process over results” bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He’s written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn’t forgiven his “inside source” for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.