Why lines Move

Line Opening

The oddsmakers, who are experts in the field, establish the opening line by considering various factors such as momentum, injuries, and historical data in the sports. They then set a price, after which the market is influenced by supply and demand.

Supply And Demand

Underscoregs typically aim to balance the action on both sides of a game in order to collect their commission, known as “the juice.” This balance is influenced by supply and demand, which can lead to fluctuations in betting lines. For example, if a large number of bets are placed on the Green Bay Packers, the sportsbook may adjust the line to make the Cleveland Browns more appealing in order to attract more bets on that side. This constant adjustment of lines is driven by supply and demand dynamics in the betting market.

Sharps Move Lines

Another crucial aspect of this equation is the actions of sharp bettors. Sharps are experienced professionals who have a deep understanding of the game and its dynamics, surpassing that of the average person. When they make their wagers, oddsmakers take notice because these players consistently win money. While the sportsbook aims to have equal action on both sides, the bets placed by sharp bettors carry more weight in the decision-making process compared to those made by the general public.

How To Take Advantage

When discussing the strategy of taking advantage of line moves in sports betting, it often involves following the bets made by experienced and successful bettors known as “sharps.” These sharps have a track record of winning consistently, so betting on the same side as them can seem like a wise choice. However, this approach has its flaws. Firstly, sharps typically get better odds than the average bettor. For instance, if sharps bet on the New York Yankees at -140, the odds may shift to -150 or -160 by the time others bet on the same team. This difference in odds can significantly impact your potential winnings over time.Additionally, sharps may bet against their initial choice later in the day to manipulate the line in their favor. This can make it challenging for casual bettors to accurately follow their moves and make informed decisions.Ultimately, relying solely on following sharp moves is not a foolproof strategy in sports betting, as it is difficult to identify these moves accurately and predict their outcomes with certainty.

Use The Moves To Help Your Handicapping

One effective strategy is to pay attention to significant shifts in the market and factor them into your analysis. If you were already leaning towards a particular side and notice sharp money backing it, this can strengthen your confidence in your decision. Conversely, if you observe sharp money going against your pick, you may consider adjusting your bet size or sticking with your original choice. It’s important to remember that even the most skilled sharps are correct only about 60% of the time.

Other Factors (Injuries, Weather, Changes)

Remember, not all line moves are related to action. In baseball, you might see a line change if a starting pitcher gets scratched and someone else has to step in on short notice. In football, you might see a huge line move if snow and wind enter the forecast of a game that was previously supposed to be clear. In the NBA, you might see a big jump in a line if a head coach decides to rest his stars last minute (see: Gregg Popopvich). All of these are examples of why a line might move. It’s your job to keep track of the news and determine why the lines are moving.