Kelly Calculator
The Kelly Criterion, named after John Kelly Jr., is a well-known formula utilized by handicappers and blackjack players. It is a valuable tool for managing your bankroll and maintaining discipline.
Below, you will find more information on how to utilize the tool. The top sportsbooks listed below provide excellent odds to maximize the effectiveness of your betting strategy.
More Information
Part I of the Kelly Criterion: Understanding Expected Value versus Expected GrowthPart II of the Kelly Criterion: Strategies for Maximizing Expected Growth
Inputs
Event Type Selector: Choose between simultaneous independent events (such as multiple games) or mutually exclusive outcomes (like a horse race or a singing competition).Events/Outcomes: Select the number of events or outcomes you want to consider.Consecutive Series: Determine how many times you want to repeat the set of bets in order to analyze bankroll expectations over multiple trials.Kelly Multiplier: Adjust the Kelly multiplier to control risk and stake size. A value of 1 represents full Kelly, while 0 indicates total risk aversion.Starting Bankroll: Input your initial bankroll amount. The output will be displayed either as a percentage or in dollar terms based on your input.US/Decimal Odds Selector: Choose whether to input odds in US or decimal format.US/Decimal Odds: Enter the odds for the bet in either US or decimal format.Win Probability/Edge Odds Selector: Decide whether to input win probability or edge for the bet.Win Probability/Edge: Enter the win probability or edge for the bet as a percentage.Calculate Kelly: Compute Kelly stakes and expectations based on the input variables. Note that processing time increases with the number of variables.
Outputs-Inputs
The text area will show the Kelly-optimal stakes for both single bets and parlays made up of individual bets. For parlays involving mutually exclusive events, the optimal stake size will be zero and will not be displayed. The stake output format will match the format specified in the “Starting Bankroll” text box. Stake amounts can be adjusted (in all tabs except the “All” tab) to recalculate expectations based on a user’s specified set of suboptimal stakes.
Outputs
Projected Profit/Growth: These boxes show the projected profit and growth based on a single set of bets, following the format outlined in the “Starting Bankroll” text box. The projected profit represents the average profit per set of bets if the set were repeated an infinite number of times with a constant bet size. The projected growth represents the average growth per set of bets if the set were repeated an infinite number of times with a constant percentage of bankroll.Projected Bankroll/Median Bankroll: These boxes display the projected mean and median bankrolls after a specified number of series of bets equivalent to the value entered in the “Consecutive Series” text box.Calculate Projections: This button calculates projections once the user has adjusted stake sizes in the text area above.
Example
Imagine you are faced with 5 football bets at -110, each with a 55% chance of winning. You want to figure out the best bet sizes and potential outcomes after 17 weeks of similar betting opportunities, starting with a $15,000 bankroll.By entering the event type as independent events, 5 events, and 17 consecutive series, you can calculate the optimal bet sizes. The recommended bet size for each single bet is $657.93, for 2-team parlays it is $38.29, for 3-team parlays it is $2.23, for 4-team parlays it is $0.13, and for a 5-team parlay it is $0.01. This strategy is expected to yield a profit of $207.39 and a growth of $103.70, resulting in a projected bankroll of $18,943.85 after 17 weeks.If you decide to avoid parlays with more than 2 teams, simply set the stake sizes to zero for those bets and recalculate. This adjustment may decrease expected profit and growth slightly, as well as the expected bankroll after 17 weeks. It is up to you to determine if the reduction in bets is worth the potential decrease in earnings.
Kelly Criterion Calculator
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Kelly Criterion Calculator
The Kelly Criterion was created by mathematician John Kelly Jr. during his tenure at AT&T’s Bell Laboratories in Texas. It assists in determining the ideal amount to bet when there is a variance between the actual odds and those offered at top sports betting sites. Initially developed for blackjack and card counting, this tool aids sports bettors in effectively managing their bankrolls. Despite its complexity, the Kelly calculator simplifies the process for users.
What is the Kelly Criterion?
Kelly created a formula to calculate the appropriate bet size based on your bankroll and perceived edge. The formula, f* = (bp – q) / b, determines the fraction of your bankroll to bet. In this equation, f represents the bet size, b is the decimal odds, p is the probability of winning, and q is the probability of losing. By using this formula, you can determine how much of your bankroll to wager on a specific bet once you understand the estimated winning percentage.
Advantages of Using This Kelly Criterion Calculator
The Kelly calculator is highly sought after due to its ability to simplify complex mathematical equations. This popular sports betting calculator determines the ideal stake for 15 different bet options on simultaneous events or 15 mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event. By utilizing this tool, sports bettors can effectively manage their bankrolls. When employed correctly, the Kelly calculator can optimize expected bankroll growth, giving users an edge over other sports bettors and increasing their chances of long-term success in sports wagering.
How to Use the Kelly Calculator
To determine your optimal bet stake using the Kelly Criterion, follow these steps:1. Select the event type – independent events for multiple games or exclusive outcomes for a single event with multiple potential winners.2. Enter the number of events or exclusive outcomes, up to a maximum of 15.3. Input the consecutive series, which is the number of times you plan to place this sequence of bets.4. Choose the Kelly Multiplier – enter 1 for standard Kelly betting, a fraction for a more conservative approach, or a number above 1 for a bolder strategy.5. Enter your starting bankroll as a monetary amount or percentage.6. Select either US odds or decimal odds for the Kelly Criterion calculation.7. Enter the odds for each bet option to determine the implied win probability or edge.8. Click “Calculate” to view the results.
The Kelly Criterion Calculator provides the best stake for individual bets and parlays, calculating expected profit and growth for each betting set and subsequent sets. It also determines the optimal bet size for parlays, making it a valuable tool for those seeking to use correct bet amounts and strategic probability.
An Example
Suppose you are planning to bet on four different teams to cover the spread at odds of -110 each weekend throughout the 17-week NFL regular season with a $1,000 bankroll. Using the standard Kelly Criterion with US odds, input the necessary information into the Kelly Criterion Calculator, including the event type, number of events, consecutive series, and Kelly multiplier. The calculator will show a 55% probability and recommend an optimal stake of $186 for each single bet and suggest two-team parlays at $3 each. You can adjust the bet amount for parlays or exclude them entirely. After the first betting set, you can expect to earn $11 in profit and see a growth of $6. By the end of 17 consecutive betting sets, your expected bankroll would be $1,205 with a median of $1,098, as per the Kelly Criterion calculations.
Who Should Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator
Before placing any bets, both sports bettors and casino bettors should take into account the Kelly Criterion to determine their wager amounts. This tool is particularly beneficial for horse racing enthusiasts, allowing them to input the number of horses in a race and their respective odds to calculate the implied probability and recommended bet size. The Kelly Criterion is not limited to horse racing and can be utilized by bettors of all levels, offering valuable insights for both beginners and experienced professionals in the sports betting world.
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