Poisson Calculator
Bettors use the Poisson calculator to determine the probability of various outcomes in prop bets. This tool is invaluable for gaining an advantage over the odds.
Further information on how to utilize the tool and when it should be used can be found below.
All of the sportsbooks listed below provide prop bets that are compatible with the Poisson calculator.
Inputs
Expected Average: The anticipated frequency of the event happening (any positive number)Proposition: The specified frequency of occurrences in the bet terms (any non-negative integer or integer plus a half)
Outputs
Odds: Bet terms describedPercentage: Probability of winning a betMoney Line: Fair odds with no vig on a bet
Example
Imagine a book is offering a prop bet on a Poisson event, such as the number of 3-point attempts made by the Knicks in a game. The line is set at over 15.5 -105 and under 15.5 -115. Based on historical averages, you believe the expected number of 3-point attempts by the Knicks is actually 15.2. To determine if the under bet has a positive expectation, follow these steps:- Select the “One Variable” option- Enter 15.2 as the expected average- Enter 15.5 as the proposition- Click “Calculate”The probability of the under hitting is calculated to be 54.7611%, with a fair money line of -121.05. Given that you would only be laying -115 on the bet, your edge would be positive at 2.3794%.Events like these proposition bets follow the Poisson distribution, where the probability of an event occurring any number of times can be estimated based on the average expected occurrences. To be considered Poisson, the event must occur one at a time, randomly but at a known average rate, proportionally to the time period, and have a large number of opportunities for occurrence.Examples of approximately Poisson events include Phil Rizzuto saying “Holy Cow” during a baseball broadcast, the total sacks by a football defense in a game, touches by a football running back, technical fouls by a basketball team, and phone calls received during a football game.It is also possible to compare two Poisson events, such as the number of sacks by a defensive line versus field goal attempts by a kicker in different games. The events must be independent for the Poisson distribution to be applicable. The Poisson calculator can determine the probability and fair odds for both one-variable and two-variable Poisson events.
Poisson Calculator
| Odds of | Percentage | Money Line |
|---|---|---|
| Exactly | ||
| More Than | ||
| Less Than | ||
| At Least | ||
| At Most | ||
| A = B | ||
| A > B | ||
| A < B | ||
| A = B | ||
| A = B |
Featured Underscoregs
Poisson Distribution Calculator
The Poisson distribution is a tool that assists bettors in determining the probability of an event occurring within a specified time frame. It is commonly utilized to assess the likelihood of a prop bet being successful. This convenient Poisson distribution calculator takes care of the calculations for you, offering a fast determination of the probability of an event occurring during a game.
What is Poisson Distribution?
The poisson distribution concept is versatile and can be applied across various industries. Retailers can utilize it to forecast the number of customers expected to visit a store on a specific day, while meteorologists can use it to predict the likelihood of a storm occurring in a particular area within a given month. In sports betting, poisson distribution is commonly employed to determine the probability of a prop bet being successful in a game or specific period (check out our prop betting sites for more information). This tool assists bettors in anticipating the likelihood of specific events occurring within a set timeframe, but it is essential to have knowledge of the historical success rate before using the probability calculator.
What is the Poisson Distribution Formula?
In order to conduct a Poisson probability experiment, you must have knowledge of the average number of times an event occurs within a given time interval. This average rate of success is represented by the Greek letter lambda (?), which can be thought of as the mean. The desired number of times that the event is expected to occur is denoted by x, known as the Poisson random variable. The Poisson probability mass function is expressed as P(X=k) = (λ^k * e^(-λ)) / k!, with e representing Euler’s number.
This formula can be used to calculate the Poisson probability and cumulative probability of events occurring based on historical averages and prop bets. It may seem complicated and overwhelming, with various variants for specific purposes. Statisticians may find interest in exploring functions such as e^3x and x!, but for the average sports bettor, these details may not hold much significance.
You don’t need to fully understand the formulas to calculate the number of times an event will occur in a specific interval. Our Poisson calculator uses easy-to-understand language for all sports bettors to quickly determine if they should place a prop bet confidently. It utilizes advanced statistical calculations to provide accurate probability results every time.
How to Use Poisson Calculator
To calculate the Poisson probability distribution rate using our probability Poisson distribution calculator, follow these steps on one of our top sports betting sites.
– Select one or two variables.- Input the Expected Average, which is the historical average rate of an event occurring.- Input the Proposition, which is the desired number of times the event should occur.- Click “Calculate”.
The Poisson distribution calculator calculates the likelihood of success or failure based on historical averages. The results are displayed in three categories: “Odds of” indicating the type of bet (over or under), “Percentage” indicating the likelihood of success based on historical data, and “Moneyline” which shows the fair odds without any additional fees. This information can help you identify potential opportunities for success.
An Example
Imagine a sportsbook is providing a proposition bet on the number of three-point shots the New York Knicks will take in an NBA game. The odds are -105 for over 15.5 attempts and -115 for under 15.5 attempts. After researching, you discover that the Knicks typically attempt an average of 15.2 three-point shots per game. With this information, you can calculate the Poisson probability (p x) using a Poisson distribution calculator.
• Choose “One Variable”• Input 15.2 in the “Expected Average” field• Input 15.5 in the “Proposition” field• Press the “Calculate” button
Upon further examination, it is evident that events with a value greater than 15.5 have an average percentage of 45.24%, whereas events with a value less than 15.5 have an average percentage of 54.7%. The Moneyline odds with zero vig for events over 15.5 would be +121.05, and for events under 15.5 it would be -121.05. It becomes apparent that the price of -115 for events under 15.5 is quite appealing, considering that the true odds should be -121.05 based on historical data. By utilizing this Poisson probability distribution analysis, you can make well-informed betting decisions with confidence.
Who Should Use This Poisson Distribution Calculator
Utilize the Poisson distribution calculator for a more precise and mathematical approach to prop betting. This tool can assist you in determining whether to bet over or under on various statistics such as points, yards, goals, attempts, corners, free-kicks, and three-pointers. The calculator can also be used to calculate the probability of success for team and player props, including pre-match, live, and futures betting. Simply input the random variable and the average number of occurrences to calculate the Poisson probability, denoted as p x.
Calculating the Poisson distribution can be beneficial for individuals at all levels of experience, from beginners to experts in sports betting. By utilizing a Poisson distribution calculator effectively, you can increase your chances of winning prop bets throughout the year by having a clear understanding of the probability distribution before placing your bets. It is recommended to save this Poisson distribution calculator page for easy access and use it regularly to determine the likelihood of each bet being successful.
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