Calculating Value
One of the main distinctions between a sharp, a knowledgeable and professional bettor, and a square, a casual bettor, lies in their grasp of the importance of a betting line. This concept can be likened to the stock market, where the question of whether Apple is a good company may seem straightforward. However, the decision of whether to invest in Apple shares hinges on the price at which they are purchased. While a casual investor may simply buy Apple stock based on popular opinion, a seasoned investor recognizes that success lies in buying at the right price. Similarly, in sports betting, the key to maximizing profits is by recognizing the value in the betting line and choosing the optimal time to place a bet.
Instinct and Feel
Sports betting today requires the same instincts and feel as being a general manager in sports. It involves practice and experience to accurately predict how a betting line will move. Experienced bettors can analyze a line and anticipate which way it will shift based on factors such as team performance, betting patterns, and momentum. Understanding the sport, teams, and various betting strategies will help you make more informed decisions on when to place your bets.
Creating Complex Models
Sports betting is evolving to include a mix of intuition and data analysis, similar to how sports front offices operate. Some bettors rely on their instincts to determine value in a game, while others use mathematical formulas and analytics to make their decisions. Many bettors utilize Excel spreadsheets and custom formulas to project lines and compare them to the market, allowing them to quickly identify opportunities for profitable bets. For example, some experienced bettors use advanced formulas to pinpoint discrepancies between their projections and the oddsmakers’ lines, indicating potential betting opportunities. Sharps often create complex models that analyze various factors to determine where the value lies in a bet.
Correlations
Sharps often seek value by analyzing the totals in relation to the spread or moneyline. This strategy can reveal potential opportunities for profit. For instance, if a game has a large spread but you believe the under is a smart bet, such as if the Green Bay Packers are favored by 10.5 points but their star quarterback is injured, it may indicate that the opposing team is more likely to cover the spread in a low-scoring game. This correlation could present a valuable betting opportunity, assuming your prediction is correct.
Shop Around For The Right Price
There are several things you can do to find the best price for a sports betting line. Starting with the easiest approach, you’ll want to have multiple sportsbook accounts so that you can shop around. Let’s say the New York Yankees are a -140 favorite at Bet365, but Pinnacle has them at -127. That’s a 13-cent difference. If you want to get the best price, then you’ll have to shop around. Otherwise, you’re at the mercy of one sportsbook, and you could get ripped off from time to time.