How to Read Odds: Payouts, Types, Examples
Having the ability to interpret odds is crucial for individuals interested in gambling or making well-informed choices using statistical probabilities. Odds serve as a representation of the chances of a specific event happening and can be presented in various ways, including fractional, decimal, or moneyline formats. Proficiency in reading odds enables individuals to calculate the potential winnings from a bet, assess the expected value of a game, and evaluate the level of risk associated with a particular wager.
What are betting odds?
Betting odds are numbers that show the probability of an event happening, helping determine the potential winnings and level of risk for a bet.
There are various ways to express betting odds, including fractional odds, decimal odds, or moneyline odds, which may vary depending on the region or sportsbook.
What do – and + Mean in Odds?
In moneyline odds, the minus (-) and plus (+) signs are utilized to distinguish between the favorite and underdog in a specific betting market. The minus sign is indicative of the favorite, whereas the plus sign signifies the underdog.
When betting on a favorite in a moneyline bet, the odds will be displayed with a minus sign (-) in front of the number, like -150. This indicates that you would have to wager $150 to win $100, or a matching amount. The negative sign signifies that the team or player is predicted to win, and the odds show how much you would need to bet to earn a specific payout.
Conversely, when betting on an underdog in a moneyline bet, the odds will be preceded by a plus sign (+) like +200. This indicates that if you wager $100 on the underdog, you stand to win $200 or an equivalent amount. The presence of the plus sign signifies that the team or player is not favored to win, with the odds representing the potential winnings for a specified bet amount.
Implied Probability and Odds
Implied probability and odds both convey the same concept, but they are determined through different calculations.
Odds are a method of indicating the probability of an event occurring, typically shown as a ratio of favorable outcomes to unfavorable outcomes. For instance, when flipping a coin, the odds of it landing heads up are 1:1, also known as “even” odds, as there is an equal chance of it landing heads or tails.
In contrast, implied probability refers to the probability of an event occurring stated as a percentage. This can be determined by dividing 1 by the decimal odds and then multiplying the result by 100. For instance, if the odds of a coin landing heads up are 1.5, the implied probability would be 1 / 1.5 * 100 = 66.67%.
To sum up, odds represent the ratio of favorable to unfavorable outcomes, while implied probability indicates the likelihood of an event occurring as a percentage.
What is Vig (or Juice)?
Vig, also known as vigorish or juice, is the fee that bookmakers or sportsbooks charge on a bet. It is the extra amount that a bettor has to pay on top of their original wager in order to make a bet.
If a bettor wagers $100 on a team to win with odds of -110, they must also pay a $10 vig in addition to their initial stake. If the bet is successful, the bettor would receive a total payout of $190 ($100 stake + $90 profit). However, if the bet is lost, the bettor would forfeit their entire $100 stake.
The vig is a tool used by bookmakers to guarantee a profit, no matter the bet’s outcome. By offering slightly favorable odds, bookmakers can ensure they make money over time, even if the number of winning and losing bets is equal.
What is Hold?
“Hold” is the percentage of the total wagered money that the sportsbook or bookmaker retains as profit, calculated as the difference between the total amount bet by customers and the total amount paid out in winnings.
In the scenario where a sportsbook collects $100,000 in bets for a game and distributes $90,000 in winnings, the hold is $10,000, equivalent to 10%. This indicates that the sportsbook retained 10% of the overall wagered amount as profit.
The hold is a key indicator for sportsbooks and bookmakers as it reflects their overall profitability. A higher hold indicates that the sportsbook is retaining a larger portion of the wagers placed, whereas a lower hold suggests that they are paying out more in winnings.
Underscores and bookmakers employ a range of tactics to increase their profits, such as modifying odds and spreads, providing incentives to attract clients, and mitigating risk through imposing betting limits on specific events.
Types of betting odds
American Odds
American odds, also referred to as moneyline odds, are a common method of displaying the likelihood of an outcome in sports betting, particularly in the United States. These odds can be shown as either a positive or negative value.
Negative odds represent the required amount of money to be bet in order to win $100. For instance, with odds of -120, a bettor needs to wager $120 to win $100.
When odds are presented as a positive number, it represents the potential winnings for a $100 bet. For instance, +150 odds mean that a bet of $100 could result in a $150 win.
Fractional odds
Fractional odds are a method of indicating the chances or likelihood of an event in sports betting, frequently utilized in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and various European regions. These odds are shown as a fraction, for example, 2/1 or 7/2.
In a fraction representing odds, the first number indicates the potential profit from a successful bet, while the second number denotes the amount of the stake. For instance, with odds of 2/1, a $1 winning bet would yield a $2 profit, totaling a $3 payout.
Fractional odds can be represented in various formats. For instance, odds of 2/1 can also be written as “two to one” or “2-1”, while odds of 7/2 can be expressed as “seven to two” or “7-2”.
Fractional odds not only represent the likelihood of an event happening but also the potential payout. A higher second number in the fraction suggests a lower likelihood of the event occurring and a higher potential payout. For instance, odds of 2/1 imply a 33.33% chance of the event happening, while odds of 7/2 suggest a 22.22% chance.
Decimal odds
Decimal odds are commonly used in Europe, Australia, and Canada to express the probability of an event in sports betting. They are represented as a decimal number, for example 1.50 or 2.25.
In decimal odds, the potential payout from a winning bet includes the initial stake or wager. For instance, with odds of 2.50, a successful $1 bet would yield a total payout of $2.50, encompassing the initial $1 stake.
Decimal odds reflect the likelihood of an event happening, with higher odds suggesting lower probability and a greater potential payout. For instance, odds of 2.50 suggest a 40% chance of the event happening, whereas odds of 1.50 imply a 66.67% likelihood.
Decimal odds, also known as “European odds,” are frequently utilized in Europe. They are often combined with fractional odds or American odds to provide bettors with a range of choices for interpreting the odds and potential winnings for a specific event.
Some bettors may find decimal odds simpler to comprehend and compare between various sportsbooks or bookmakers, as they clearly show the potential payout for a winning bet, including the original stake.
Calculating Payouts
You can determine the potential payout of a bet by applying the following formulas to the betting odds.
To calculate potential payout with fractional odds, use this formula: (Stake x numerator) / denominator. To determine profit, subtract the stake from the potential payout.
To calculate potential payout for decimal odds, multiply the stake by the decimal odds. To find the profit, subtract the stake from the potential payout.
In American odds, if the odds are negative, the potential payout is calculated as (Stake / absolute value of the odds) x 100, and the profit is Potential Payout – Stake. If the odds are positive, the potential payout is (Stake x odds) / 100, and the profit is Potential Payout – Stake.
Here is an example to demonstrate how to calculate the potential payout and profit for each type of odds:
If you want to wager $100 on a football match between Team A and Team B, the odds for Team A to win are:
- Fractional odds: 3/1
- Decimal odds: 4.00
- American odds: +300
You can determine the potential payout and profit for each type of odds by using the following formulas:
To calculate potential payout for fractional odds, multiply the stake by the numerator and divide by the denominator. For example, with odds of 3/1 and a stake of $100, the potential payout would be $300. The profit would then be the potential payout minus the stake, resulting in a profit of $200.
To calculate potential payout for decimal odds, multiply the stake by the decimal odds. For example, if the stake is $100 and the decimal odds are 4.00, the potential payout would be $400. To calculate profit, subtract the initial stake from the potential payout. In this case, the profit would be $300 ($400 – $100).
In American odds, if the odds are positive (+), the potential payout can be calculated by multiplying the stake by the odds and then dividing by 100. For example, with a stake of $100 and odds of +300, the potential payout would be $300. The profit can then be determined by subtracting the stake from the potential payout, resulting in a profit of $200 in this case.
In this scenario, betting $100 on Team A would result in a potential payout of $300, with a profit of $200 regardless of the odds type.
Odds and Types of Bets
Moneyline Odds
Moneyline odds, also referred to as American odds, are a method of illustrating the likelihood of an event in sports betting, commonly utilized in the United States. These odds can be displayed as either a positive or negative figure.
Moneyline odds are versatile and can be applied to various types of bets such as point spread bets, totals bets, and straight-up bets. They offer a straightforward representation of the odds and potential payouts for any given event.
Spread Betting Odds
Spread betting odds are numerical values given by a bookmaker or spread betting company to various outcomes of an event, which help calculate the potential payout for a specific bet.
Spread betting involves the bookmaker establishing a spread, which represents the potential outcomes for a specific event. For instance, in a soccer game, the bookmaker may set a spread of 2-3 goals, allowing bettors to wager on either team winning by a 2-3 goal margin.
Bookmakers determine the odds for a specific event outcome based on their assessment of the likelihood of that outcome happening. These odds are typically presented as decimals or fractions and indicate the potential payout for a successful bet.
Over Under Odds
Totals betting, also referred to as over/under odds, involves the bookmaker establishing a total number for a specific statistic in a game, such as the combined score, total goals, or total points scored. Bettors must then forecast whether the actual number will exceed or fall below the bookmaker’s set total.
In an NFL football game, the bookmaker might set the over/under at 48.5 points. The bettor must then choose whether the combined total points scored by both teams will be above or below 48.5.
Over/under bets are usually displayed as fractions like 2/1 or 3/2. This indicates that if a bet of $100 is placed and won, the bettor will receive $200 or $150 back, respectively, along with their original $100 bet.
Parlay Betting Odds
Parlay betting odds indicate the potential payout a bettor could win by successfully wagering on multiple events in a single bet. By combining two or more individual bets into one larger bet, parlay bets offer increasing potential winnings with each additional event.
To calculate the odds for a parlay bet, multiply the individual odds for each event together. For instance, if a bettor wishes to place a parlay bet on three separate events with odds of 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0, the parlay odds would be determined by multiplying these individual odds.
2 multiplied by 3 multiplied by 4 equals 24.
This indicates that if all three events are accurately predicted, the parlay bettor would get a potential payout of 24 times their initial stake. It should be noted that as the number of events in a parlay bet increases, the difficulty of winning also increases, leading to a lower overall probability of success.
Futures Betting Odds
Futures betting odds are the odds for events or outcomes that will happen in the future, like championship winners, league MVPs, or election results. These bets are usually made long before the event, and the odds can change due to factors like injuries, team performance, and public sentiment.
Futures betting odds are often shown in a way that indicates the potential payout for a bettor if their bet is successful. For instance, if a team’s odds to win a championship are listed as +500, this indicates that a bettor would earn $500 for every $100 they bet if that team wins the championship.
Conversely, if a team’s championship odds are -200, a bettor would have to bet $200 to win $100 if that team wins. Negative odds suggest the team is favored, while positive odds suggest the team is an underdog.
Teaser Betting Odds
Teaser betting odds allow sports bettors to modify the point spread or total of a game by a specified number of points in their favor, increasing their chances of winning but decreasing the potential payout.
In a football game, the initial point spread could be -7 in favor of the favorite team. By teasing the spread by 6 points, the new spread would be -1 for the favorite. This adjustment increases the bettor’s chances of winning, but also decreases the potential payout.
How Odds Differ Between Sports
Football Odds
The NFL offers a variety of betting markets not commonly found in other sports, such as:
- First touchdown scorer: This market allows bettors to wager on which player will score the first touchdown of the game. It’s a popular market among NFL fans and can offer some exciting opportunities to win big.
- Special teams props: Because special teams play such an important role in NFL games, some sportsbooks offer props on special teams performance. Examples of special teams props include the number of punts inside the 20-yard line, the number of successful onside kicks, or the number of kickoff returns for a touchdown.
- Quarterback props: Quarterbacks are often the most important players on an NFL team, and they can have a huge impact on the outcome of a game. Some sportsbooks offer props on quarterback performance, such as the number of passing yards, touchdown passes, or interceptions.
- Margin of victory: This betting market allows bettors to wager on the margin of victory for a team. In the NFL, games are often decided by a few points, so this market can be a great way to bet on the outcome of a game without having to pick a winner.
- Super Bowl MVP: The Super Bowl is the biggest event in the NFL, and the MVP award is one of the most coveted individual honors in sports. Bettors can wager on which player they think will win the Super Bowl MVP award, which can be a fun and exciting way to bet on the biggest game of the year.
Basketball Odds
Basketball offers a variety of distinctive betting markets that are not commonly found in other sports. Here are a few examples:
- Over/under on team fouls: In basketball, there are rules that limit the number of fouls a team can commit in a game. Some bookmakers offer an over/under betting market on the number of team fouls committed by a team in a game.
- Quarter/Half betting: Basketball games are divided into four quarters or two halves, depending on the league. Bettors can place bets on the outcome of each quarter or half, which can be a good way to find value in games where one team is expected to dominate.
- First basket scorer/method: These markets ask bettors to choose which player will score the game’s opening basket, and how those points will be recorded (layup, three-point shot, free throw, etc.)
- First to X points: This is a unique betting market in basketball where you can place a bet on which team will be the first to reach a certain point total during the game. For example, you could bet on which team will be the first to reach 20 points.
- Points + rebounds + assists: This is a unique player prop betting market where you can bet on the total number of points, rebounds and assists a player will have in a game. This can be a good way to find value in games where a player is expected to have a significant impact.
Baseball Odds and the Runline
Runline odds are a form of betting odds specific to baseball, mirroring puckline odds in hockey and point spread odds in football and basketball.
The runline is a 1.5-run handicap typically given to the favorite team. This means the favorite must win by at least two runs to cover the runline, while the underdog can lose by just one run and still cover the spread.
Runline odds are similar to moneyline odds, using positive and negative numbers to show the wager needed to win $100 or the potential winnings for a $100 bet.
For instance, if the favored team has a runline of -1.5, the odds could be -120. This implies that a bettor would have to bet $120 in order to win $100 if the favored team wins by two or more runs.
Runline betting in baseball is not as popular as moneyline betting. The odds and handicaps for this type of bet can differ greatly depending on the teams and sportsbook. Some bettors choose runline betting to potentially increase their payout if they think the favorite team will win by a large margin. Others prefer to stick with moneyline betting for a more straightforward wager.
Hockey Odds and the Puckline
The puckline serves as a handicap for the favored team to level the betting field, but it differs from point spread odds in other sports.
The key distinction lies in the puckline’s size. In contrast to point spreads in other sports, which usually range from 3-7 points, hockey pucklines are commonly set at 1.5 goals. This implies that the favored team must secure victory by a margin of at least two goals to meet the puckline requirement, whereas the underdog can lose by just one goal and still meet the puckline.
Golf, Tennis and Event-based Sports
In event-based sports such as golf and tennis, odds are usually presented in the moneyline format, similar to other sports. However, there are variations in how these odds are determined and displayed.
The most popular type of bet in golf is choosing the tournament winner. Each golfer is given odds reflecting their chances of winning, with top players having lower odds and underdogs having higher odds. For instance, if Tiger Woods is favored to win a tournament with odds of +200, a $100 bet on Woods would earn $200 if he wins.
Additional betting options in golf include placing bets on a golfer to place in the top five, top ten, or top twenty of the tournament, as well as participating in head-to-head matchups between two golfers.
The most popular type of bet in tennis is selecting the winner of a specific match. Odds are assigned to each player based on their chances of winning, with the favorite having lower odds and the underdog having higher odds. For instance, if Novak Djokovic is predicted to win a match with odds of -250, a $250 wager on Djokovic would result in a $100 payout if he emerges victorious.
Additional wagering options in tennis include placing bets on the overall number of games or sets played in a match. Certain sportsbooks may also provide prop bets related to specific statistics, such as the amount of aces served or double faults made by individual players during a match.
In general, event-based sports such as golf and tennis have comparable odds to other sports when it comes to the moneyline format. However, they may vary in the types of bets available and the specific odds given to each player or competitor.
Horse Racing Odds
There are several key differences between horse racing odds and those of other sports.
- The odds are expressed differently: Unlike other sports, where odds are typically expressed in a moneyline format (e.g. -110 or +150), horse racing odds are usually expressed in a fractional format (e.g. 3/1 or 5/2). The odds represent the ratio of the payout to the original stake. So, for example, a horse with odds of 3/1 would pay out $3 for every $1 wagered, plus the original stake.
- The odds are constantly changing: In horse racing, the odds are not set at the beginning of the season or even the day of the race. Instead, they are constantly changing up until the moment the race starts, based on how much money is being wagered on each horse. This is known as “parimutuel” betting.
- There are many types of bets: In addition to betting on which horse will win the race, horse racing offers a wide variety of other bets, such as place (betting that a horse will finish first or second), show (betting that a horse will finish in the top three), exacta (betting on the first two horses to finish in the correct order), trifecta (betting on the first three horses to finish in the correct order), and more.
- The odds can be influenced by the jockeys: In horse racing, the jockey who rides the horse can also influence the odds. If a top jockey is riding a particular horse, that horse may be seen as more likely to win, and the odds may shift accordingly.
In general, horse racing odds stand out for being presented in a fractional format, constantly fluctuating, and offering a wide variety of betting options.
Odds and Line Movement
Line movement is the fluctuation in betting odds or point spread for a specific sporting event that happens as time passes. This movement is triggered by shifts in the perceived likelihood of a certain outcome or variations in the betting amounts placed on each side of the bet.
Changes in betting odds can be caused by a range of factors such as key player injuries, weather conditions, or shifts in the betting market. Underscoregs will modify the odds to ensure a balanced amount of money is wagered on both sides of the bet when these changes happen.
For instance, if a sportsbook initially sets the point spread for an NFL game at -3 in favor of the home team and sees a large number of bettors favoring the underdog team, they may move the line to -2.5 or -2 to attract more bets on the home team. Conversely, if there is a surge in bets on the home team covering the spread, the sportsbook may adjust the line to -3.5 or -4 to entice more bets on the underdog team.
Line movement can happen as more information is revealed. For instance, if a crucial player gets injured before a game, the odds may change in favor of the other team. Additionally, alterations in weather, venue, or other variables can also lead to line movement over time.
It’s important to note that line movement is not always a reliable indicator of which team is more likely to win. Instead, line movement should be viewed as a reflection of the betting market and the amount of money being wagered on each side of the bet.