Sports Handicapping

Professional Handicapper… or Tout?

It is clear that the terms “professional handicapper” and “tout” have very different connotations. The former implies a knowledgeable and well-researched individual providing sports insights, while the latter suggests someone who may not be trustworthy, like a used car salesman. While financial advisors are generally reliable, the same cannot be said for professional handicappers, who have often been exposed as frauds.In the past, handicappers would give out picks on a hotline, splitting their customers into two groups and providing conflicting advice. With the rise of the internet, their tactics have evolved to attract more customers. It is important to remember that their main business may not be betting on games, but rather selling their picks. This means they will make money regardless of whether you win or lose, making sales a key part of their business. While a successful track record should be enough to attract customers, unfortunately, that is not always the case in this industry.

Stats Can Be Framed

The internet has made it easier to track handicapper picks, making it more difficult for them to manipulate their numbers. However, many handicappers still frame their stats to showcase their best performances. For example, if a handicapper is on a winning streak in one sport but struggling in another, they may only highlight their success in the winning sport. They may also emphasize their success with special picks like Pick Of The Month, while downplaying their overall record. With so many handicappers available online, there will always be someone on a hot streak to entice buyers. It’s important to look at the complete picture before investing in any handicapper’s picks.

The Costs

Many handicappers and touts often overlook the expenses involved in their services. Let’s be honest, it can be quite costly. A successful year in football betting might mean accurately predicting 55% of your picks, while a top-notch year for a sharp could be closer to 58% or 59%. So, hypothetically, if you were to purchase a year-long NFL package and follow every pick meticulously, it could set you back $800-$1000. For a $100 bettor, this could turn a profitable season into a losing one. Even for a $500 bettor, that’s a substantial amount of potential profit lost. And let’s not forget, this is all assuming that these handicappers actually win. If they have a losing season and you’ve bought their picks, then you’re in for a rough time.

Getting The Right Price

So let’s say you’ve done your research, you’ve checked references, and monitored track records. You’ve finally found a smart handicapper that is legitimately successful. Here’s the problem: they’ll always get a better number than you. Any pro who is actually that good at betting on sports will get a better number than you when you lay your bets, which means that you’re going to be at a disadvantage.

Let’s say you pay for a pick, and the shrewd handicapper told you to bet the New York Yankees at -135. Well, if he bets the game and he’s genuinely a sharp bettor, that line will move. By the time you get to it, it could be -140, -150 or higher. That loss in value might not seem like much, but when you’re talking about doing this over a long period of time, it is, in fact, significant. If you don’t get the same odds, you’re going to lose more and win less over time. That’s a problem.