Monday’s MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Bobby Witt Jr. Ready to Take Advantage of Marlins
We are honing in on a select group of standout hitters in our MLB player props and expert picks for Monday, utilizing the most favorable MLB odds.
There are 12 MLB games happening on Monday, offering a wide selection of All-Star sluggers to consider for our player prop bets.
Starting our selections, we are highlighting the Philadelphia Phillies’ game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park at 6:40 p.m. ET. Despite Bryce Harper being a contender for the MLB MVP title, his teammate Trea Turner has a more favorable matchup.
The Tampa Bay Rays will face off against the Seattle Mariners at Tropicana Field at 6:50 p.m. ET as they head south, with the opposing pitcher having the advantage in this matchup.
At 7:45 p.m. ET, the Atlanta Braves will try to improve their chances of winning the World Series as they face the St. Louis Cardinals, followed by the Miami Marlins playing against the Kansas City Royals at 8:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s start off strong with our top MLB picks for Monday.
Monday’s MLB expert picks
Our MLB picks are determined by odds from top MLB betting sites, with pick confidence rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
- BetMGM is offering Trea Turner to have over 1.5 total bases at a -115 odds, with a four-star rating.
- There is a +135 bet on Randy Arozarena to have under 0.5 total bases at bet365 with a 3-star rating.
- BetMGM is offering odds of -115 for Marcell Ozuna to have over 1.5 total bases, with a three-star rating.
- Bobby Witt Jr. is favored to have over 1.5 hits, with odds at +125 through bet365. This bet is highly recommended with a 4-star rating.
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MLB player props
Trea Turner to record more than 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 1.5 (-125) | Over 1.5 (-125) | Over 1.5 (-115) | Over 1.5 (-127) | Over 1.5 (-120) |
Information for the Phillies vs. Tigers game: Moneyline odds for the team are -170 according to bet365, with the total set at Over 8.5 (+105) or Under 8.5 (-125) also from bet365. The game is scheduled to start at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Harper has been on fire for Philadelphia in 2024, making the Phillies a formidable opponent for pitchers due to their stacked lineup. With Trea Turner returning to the team after a month and a half absence, Philadelphia appears poised to increase Tigers pitcher Casey Mize’s ERA of 4.43.
Mize has allowed 81 hits in 69 innings and will face Turner and the Phillies without any relief in sight. The pitcher has been relying on his four-seamer 39.8% of the time this season, a pitch that Turner excels at putting into play. Turner has a .331 expected batting average and a .587 expected slugging percentage against four-seamers.
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Mize primarily relies on his slider, using it 28.1% of the time. Despite some success in 2024, opponents are hitting a .291 xBA against this pitch, indicating Mize may struggle soon. Turner has only batted .250 against sliders this season in limited appearances, but in 2023 he excelled with a .331 average and .595 slugging percentage against the pitch.
The prop with the lowest odds is -127, suggesting a 55.95% chance of winning based on our odds converter. With this bet, a $10 wager would result in an $8.70 profit if Turner ends the game with more than 1.5 total bases.
Top odds: -115 at BetMGM
Randy Arozarena’s total bases predicted to be under 0.5 ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 0.5 (+125) | OFF | Under 0.5 (+125) | Under 0.5 (+123) | Under 0.5 (+135) |
Information for the game between the Mariners and Rays includes a moneyline of Mariners/Rays (-110) and a total of Over 7.5 (-105)/Under 8.5 (-115) available through bet365. The game is scheduled to start at 6:50 p.m. ET.
Despite high expectations following an All-Star appearance and ALCS MVP in 2024, Randy Arozarena continues to struggle to break out of his slump. Many had hoped he would become one of the league’s top sluggers, but it appears that he is having trouble even making contact with the ball.
Although Arozarena has shown improvement in June, his overall 2024 stats are still underwhelming with a slash line of .190/.304/.350 and hitless performances in 43.4% of games. While he has performed well against weaker pitchers, he may struggle against the Mariners and Bryan Woo.
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The 24-year-old pitcher has established himself as one of the top young talents in baseball, boasting an impressive 1.67 ERA in seven starts. He has been stingy with hits, allowing only 2.8 per start, and has shut out his opponents in two of his last three games. Woo heavily relies on his four-seam fastball, utilizing it 52.9% of the time, and has found success with opponents batting just .164 against it.
Arozarena’s batting average is only .192 when facing four-seamers, making these odds look appealing. Woo primarily relies on his sinker, throwing it 26% of the time, and Arozarena has a batting average of just .220 against this pitch.
With a 42.55% chance of winning, a $10 bet could earn you $23.50 at this price.
Top odds: +135 at bet365
Marcell Ozuna to have over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 1.5 (-120) | Over 1.5 (-120) | Over 1.5 (-115) | Over 1.5 (-125) | Over 1.5 (-115) |
Information for the game between the Braves and Cardinals includes a moneyline of Braves (-120 via bet365), a total of Over 8.5 (-115)/Under 8.5 (-105) via bet365, and a start time of 7:45 p.m. ET.
Despite facing numerous injuries throughout the 2024 season, the Braves have managed to stay competitive in the race for the World Series, thanks in large part to the exceptional performance of Marcell Ozuna. The two-time All-Star is having a standout season, hitting 21 home runs and boasting an impressive slash line of .314/.390/.596, making a strong case for the best season of his career.
With a stellar performance in June, Ozuna continues to impress without any signs of slowing down. In 20 games, he has hit five homers, five doubles, and boasts a .325 average. He has surpassed 1.5 total bases in 13 of those games (65%) and is expected to maintain his performance against Lance Lynn and the Cardinals.
Lynn heavily depends on his four-seamer, using it 42.1% of the time, and Ozuna excels when facing that pitch. In 2024, Ozuna has a batting average of .386 and a slugging percentage of .663 against four-seamers. Lynn’s cutter is the only other pitch he uses more than 19% of the time, coming in at 25.5%.
Ozuna’s impressive .316 batting average and .737 slugging percentage against cutters make the odds give him a 53.49% win probability. A $10 bet on this prop would pay out $18.70.
Top odds at -115 from BetMGM.
Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to get over 1.5 hits with a four-star rating.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 1.5 (+115) | Over 1.5 (+110) | Over 1.5 (+120) | Over 1.5 (+110) | Over 1.5 (+125) |
Matchup: Marlins vs. Royals Betting Odds: Royals are favored (-250) according to bet365Over/Under: 9.5 points, with both Over and Under at -110 on bet365Scheduled Start Time: 8:10 p.m. Eastern Time
Without Aaron Judge hitting every pitch out of the park, Witt would likely be the top contender for AL MVP at some of our top sports betting sites. The Royals shortstop has shown significant improvement in his third season and is now considered one of the most well-rounded hitters in baseball.
Witt is primed for another MVP-level performance against Marlins righty Roddery Munoz. He boasts an impressive .314/.368/.542 slash line against right-handed pitchers in 2024, with 34 extra-base hits. Despite recent struggles in his last three games, this matchup presents the perfect opportunity for Witt to get back on track.
In just 29 2/3 innings, Munoz has surrendered 11 home runs and is coming off a rough game where he gave up eight hits, six earned runs, and three home runs. Despite his struggles, the rookie pitcher has a diverse pitch arsenal that includes a cutter (27.2%), four-seamer (24%), sinker (20.5%), and slider (18.1%) that he uses regularly.
However, Witt has a batting average of .318 or higher against three of those pitches and has a slugging percentage of .515 or more. Despite the odds suggesting only a 44.44% chance of winning, I am confident in this proposition, especially considering that a $10 bet would yield a $12.50 profit.
Top odds: +125 on bet365
MLB player props were set on Monday at 8:45 a.m. ET.
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- Use the promo code SBRBONUS at BetRivers and check out our review of the site.
- Check out our FanDuel Review and use our exclusive FanDuel Promo Code.
- Check out our DraftKings review and use our exclusive promo code for great deals!
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