Today’s home run props and odds feature all-star sluggers continuing to hit home runs at a high rate.
Some of the most skilled home run hitters in Major League Baseball will be playing on Friday, and we have compiled our top home run prop bets using the odds provided by our top MLB betting sites.
Who wouldn’t enjoy finishing the work week with a lineup of MLB games showcasing some of the sport’s top hitters? Our home run prop bets today include favorites for the MLB MVP award, a rising star known for hitting home runs, and a seasoned player with over 300 career home runs.
Today’s main focus is on established players on World Series contenders facing weak pitchers with favorable matchups.
Props for Friday’s home run
Get the best odds for home runs on our top sports betting websites.
- Bryce Harper is a +400 favorite on FanDuel as he faces off against Jordan Montgomery of the Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park.
- Julio Rodriguez is set to face off against Trevor Rogers of the Marlins at loanDepot Park, with Rodriguez being the favorite at +550 odds according to BetMGM.
- Carlos Santana is facing off against Joey Estes of the A’s at Oakland Coliseum, with odds of +540 according to FanDuel.
- Shohei Ohtani faces off against the Angels (Patrick Sandoval) at Dodger Stadium, with Ohtani listed as the favorite at +340 according to Caesars.
Please be aware that home run props are a highly unpredictable betting market. We recommend making wagers with a smaller investment compared to our other MLB picks.
Bryce Harper, a left-handed hitter, will face Jordan Montgomery, a left-handed pitcher, at Citizens Bank Park.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 17 | HR/9: 1.1 |
| SLG%: .539 | HR/FB%: 10.6 |
| FB%: 32.8 | FB%: 23.2 |
| Hard hit %: 47.9 | Hard hit %: 37.6 |
Harper started the season slow but has since regained his MVP form, captivating Philadelphia with his impressive home run hitting. With 17 home runs this season, including two in his last game, Harper has been one of the top hitters in June.
This month, Harper has been on fire with a .333/.444/.600 batting line and a 1.044 OPS, hitting four home runs. Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Jordan Montgomery should be worried about facing Harper, especially since Montgomery has given up three home runs in his last three starts and does not match up well against him.
Montgomery relies heavily on his sinker, throwing it 33.5% of the time, but Harper has had great success against this pitch. The Philadelphia Phillies slugger is hitting .409 with a .750 SLG% against sinkers this season. Montgomery may be in for a challenging evening if he continues to rely on this pitch.
Greatest chance of winning: +400 odds on FanDuel, which implies a 20% probability of winning.
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Julio Rodriguez, a right-handed hitter, will face off against left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers at loanDepot Park.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 7 | HR/9: 1.17 |
| SLG%: .353 | HR/FB%: 12.9 |
| FB%: 24.8 | FB%: 21.5 |
| Hard hit %: 49.5 | Hard hit %: 44.3 |
Rodriguez has not lived up to the high expectations set after making two All-Star appearances in his first two seasons. Despite a slow start, the 23-year-old remains one of the most feared hitters in baseball due to his immense power.
Rodriguez has hit almost as many home runs in 18 games in June (3) as he did in the first 59 games of the season (4). Although he is not yet putting up Silver Slugger numbers, Rodriguez is expected to take advantage of the matchup against left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers. He has been more productive against left-handed pitchers this season compared to right-handed pitchers.
In addition, Rogers has surrendered a home run in each of his last four outings, with Rodriguez particularly adept at hitting his preferred pitches – the four-seamer and sinker. This season, the Seattle Mariners’ center fielder has recorded a slugging percentage of over .488 against both of these pitches.
Top odds: +550 available on BetMGM, with an implied probability of 15.38%
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Carlos Santana will face Joey Estes at the Oakland Coliseum. Santana is a switch hitter, while Estes is a right-handed pitcher.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 12 | HR/9: 1.56 |
| SLG%: .447 | HR/FB%: 10.3 |
| FB%: 27.3 | FB%: 35.2 |
| Hard hit %: 39.2 | Hard hit %: 44.4 |
When Joey Estes was just nine years old, Santana made his debut in the majors. Now, Santana has the opportunity to teach the rookie a valuable lesson about the overuse of his four-seamer pitch, leaving Estes to rue his decision as he walks away into the night.
Despite being 38 years old, Santana can still hit a fastball hard. He has a .307 batting average and a .600 slugging percentage against four-seamers this season, which is Estes’ most used pitch at 56.1%. Santana has been on fire in June, with a slash line of .364/.426/.673 and a 1.099 OPS.
If you still have doubts, consider that Estes has allowed six home runs in only seven starts, with four of them coming in his last two games. Have faith in the experienced player to shine in an empty Oakland Coliseum.
Top odds: +540 offered by FanDuel, implying a 15.63% probability.
Shohei Ohtani, a left-handed hitter, will face off against Patrick Sandoval, a left-handed pitcher, at Dodger Stadium.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 21 | HR/9: 0.93 |
| SLG%: .615 | HR/FB%: 10.5 |
| FB%: 26.7 | FB%: 24.7 |
| Hard hit %: 62.5 | Hard hit %: 36.6 |
In conclusion, I’m keeping it simple. Let’s give credit to the guy who sends rockets to the moon more often than NASA. Ohtani is the clear frontrunner for NL MVP, boasting an impressive 21 home runs and a .615 SLG% in just 74 games this season.
He has already matched his May home run total of 7 this month, achieving it in fewer games as his SLG% has increased to .639 in June. In just the past week, he has hit four home runs, which does not bode well for Patrick Sandoval, who has allowed six home runs in his last six starts.
Ohtani poses a significant threat to the Los Angeles Angels left-handed pitcher. Three out of the four main pitches thrown by the two-time MVP have been hit the hardest this season. Ohtani has a slugging percentage of .727 or higher against four-seamers, sliders, and sinkers. Sandoval will likely be feeling the pressure before he even steps onto the mound.
Top chance: +340 at Caesars (22.73% chance)
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