Today’s home run props and odds feature Hoskins and Smith facing ideal pitching matchups.
Our home run predictions for Tuesday are focused on two sluggers who have a great opportunity to take advantage of the opposing pitcher’s most frequently used pitch, according to the odds from our top MLB betting sites.
During the home run festivities on Monday, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit a 471-foot homer that Fenway Park couldn’t handle. However, the joy was short-lived for the Toronto Blue Jays as they squandered a four-run lead to the Boston Red Sox later in the game.
We are not too concerned with the outcomes of baseball games in this area. What we really love are home runs, such as the grand slam hit by Rhys Hoskins on Monday. He is in a good position to continue hitting homers and is a good bet at a fair price, along with a Los Angeles Dodger who is not Shohei Ohtani or Teoscar Hernandez.
Let’s explore our home run predictions for Tuesday.
Tuesday’s home run props
Get the best home run odds from our top sports betting sites.
- Will Smith is set to face off against the White Sox and their pitcher Chris Flexen at Guaranteed Rate Field, with Smith currently holding odds of +310 according to FanDuel.
- Rhys Hoskins is favored at +300 by Caesars in the matchup against the Rangers and pitcher Andrew Heaney at American Family Field.
Keep in mind that home run props are a highly unpredictable betting market. It is recommended to make bets with a smaller investment compared to our other MLB picks.
Will Smith, a right-handed hitter, will face off against Chris Flexen, a right-handed pitcher, at Guaranteed Rate Field.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 11 | HR/9: 1.4 |
| SLG%: .474 | HR/FB%: 9.2 |
| FB%: 39.9 | FB%: 26.3 |
| Hard hit %: 44.9 | Hard hit %: 35.1 |
Chris Flexen has a history of being generous with giving up home runs. In 2023, he struggled, with an expected opponents’ slugging percentage of .509, ranking in the bottom 4% of MLB according to Baseball Savant. While he has made some improvements in 2024, allowing six home runs in his last seven games suggests that he may be regressing again.
It is challenging to face the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team filled with power, even with Mookie Betts injured and out of the MVP race. Despite a recent slump, Will Smith hit his 11th home run of the season, adding to the team’s formidable lineup.
What makes this batter-pitcher matchup so intriguing is the fact that Flexen has been relying heavily on a pitch that Smith has been hitting hard. Flexen has been using his four-seamer 38.5% of the time, and Smith has a .420 slugging percentage against that pitch in 2024. Overall, Smith has a .443 slugging percentage and a .514 expected slugging against fastballs.
Make sure to place this bet at FanDuel, as other top sportsbooks have odds that are significantly lower. For example, DraftKings is offering +260.
Betting $10 at these odds would yield a $41 return.
Top odds: +310 at FanDuel, suggesting a 24.39% chance of winning.
This offer is exclusive to new customers. Simply deposit a minimum of $5, place your first bet of $5 or more, and if your bet wins within 72 hours, you will receive $200 in Bonus Bets.
Rhys Hoskins of the Philadelphia Phillies, a right-handed hitter, will face off against left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney at American Family Field.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 11 | HR/9: 1.4 |
| SLG%: .423 | HR/FB%: 8.9 |
| FB%: 32.6% | FB%: 32.3 |
| Hard hit %: 39.2% | Hard hit %: 42.7 |
This situation once again involves taking advantage of a pitcher who has been giving up a lot of home runs recently.
Andrew Heaney has consistently struggled with giving up home runs throughout his career, with four seasons of allowing 20 or more dingers. Lately, he has been even more vulnerable, giving up a home run in six of his last eight starts. His low hard-hit rate, which is only in the 25th percentile of MLB, is a major factor in his struggles. Additionally, like Flexen, Heaney heavily relies on a mediocre pitch.
Even though his fastball velocity is in the 13th percentile, leading to an average exit speed of 90.9 mph in the bottom 7% leaguewide, he still relies on his four-seamer for a remarkable 53.7% of his pitches.
At the same time, experienced first baseman Rhys Hoskins has a .566 slugging percentage against four-seam fastballs. He is currently on a six-game hitting streak as he tries to get back to his performance level in May, where he had an .828 OPS. This streak also includes a home run hit on Monday.
If you place a $10 bet at +300 odds with Caesars, you would win $40.
Top chance: +300 odds at Caesars (implied probability of 25.0%)
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