Get your free Belmont Stakes Picks & Predictions for the 156th Run for the Carnations at Saratoga Race Course in 2024.

The 2024 Belmont Stakes promises an exciting race, with previous Triple Crown winners and a talented sophomore horse in the mix. Join us as we analyze the race and make our free picks and predictions based on the odds from top horse racing betting sites.

The 156th running of the Belmont Stakes will break tradition by moving to the prestigious Saratoga Race Course instead of its usual location, Belmont Park, because of construction. Sierra Leone is currently leading in the Belmont Stakes odds.

This year’s Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course instead of the traditional Belmont Park, which is known for its long, sweeping turns perfect for a 1 1/2-mile dirt race. Some may argue that this change warrants an asterisk beside the event, as Saratoga is more accustomed to hosting shorter races, usually at 1 1/8 miles.

The 10 contenders in Belmont 156 will face a tough test with the traditional American distance of 1 1/4 miles. Saratoga is known for hosting races at this distance during its summer meet, including prestigious events such as the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes, Grade 1 Jockey Gold Cup, and the Grade 1 Travers, considered the top race for 3-year-olds after the Triple Crown.

The change to a slightly shorter distance brings a new element to handicapping the oldest of the Triple Crown races. Although traditional Belmont factors such as pedigree and running style remain important, insights from Saratoga can also help determine if favorites like Sierra Leone, Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, Preakness Stakes champion Seize the Grey, or up-and-coming contenders have what it takes to succeed in the Triple Crown.

Even though there is a departure from tradition, excitement for the event is still very much felt.

These three horses are worth watching closely for both positive and negative factors in our top selections and forecasts for the 2024 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course, as provided by our most reputable sports betting sites.

Belmont Stakes odds

Check out the latest post positions and updated odds for the 2024 Belmont Stakes, with the most recent changes as of 9 a.m. ET on Saturday.

Check out our comprehensive analysis of the odds for the 2024 Belmont Stakes.

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Predictions and picks for the Belmont Stakes

The favored horse in the Belmont Stakes is Sierra Leone, starting from post 9 with odds of +180.

Sierra Leone narrowly missed victory in both the Kentucky Derby, losing by a nose hair to Mystik Dan, and the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct last December, where he was narrowly defeated by Dornoch. With just a hair’s breadth separating him from victory in both races, this son of Gun Runner is just shy of being undefeated in his five starts.

In both races, Sierra Leone showed a concerning tendency to drift, ultimately leading to his loss in the Derby and likely contributing to his defeat in the Remsen. Even in his two graded-stakes wins at the Risen Star and Blue Grass, Sierra Leone continued to wander in the stretch. This behavior is not ideal for a colt with the potential for greatness in his division.

Sierra Leone’s tendency to drift off course led trainer Chad Brown to search for a new bit in the equipment shed. This behavior ultimately cost jockey Tyler Gaffalione his ride, despite his past successes with two stakes wins and a second place finish in the Derby aboard Sierra Leone. Brown decided to replace Gaffalione with Flavien Prat for the Belmont race.

Let’s see how Prat handles a talented yet unfocused deep closer in a race that is not typically favorable to that type of horse. Only two closers, Mo Donegal in 2018 and Creator in 2016, have won the third jewel of the Triple Crown since 2010.

We will discover Prat’s abilities with the probable favorite at post time. Arcangelo’s victory in the Belmont last year ended a streak of three consecutive winning favorites: Mo Donegal in 2022, Essential Quality in 2021, and Tiz the Law in the pandemic Belmont of 2020. Sierra Leone’s journey, as one of the top colts in his class, whether it leads to a Triple Crown victory or another heartbreaking loss for his connections, is one of the main storylines of Belmont 156.

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Antiquarian, a long shot at +1200 odds, will be starting from post 5 in the Belmont Stakes.

In March, Antiquarian was considered an afterthought, a horse finishing sixth in a Derby prep such as the Louisiana Derby. However, by early May, Antiquarian had transformed into an intriguing Belmont prospect, exemplified by winning the Peter Pan Stakes.

The Grade 3 race on the Derby undercard has consistently foreshadowed success at the Belmont Stakes. Since 2010, it has seen four Belmont winners emerge, such as last year’s champion Arcangelo. Todd Pletcher, a four-time Belmont Stakes winning trainer, is now guiding Arcangelo’s son, Antiquarian, following a similar trajectory. Like his predecessor, Antiquarian did not race as a 2-year-old, showed early potential in his sophomore year, and secured a victory in the Peter Pan.

Antiquarian has a record of 2 wins, 1 second place, and 0 third place finishes in his four races. Despite a glitchy sixth place finish in the Louisiana Derby, he was only four lengths behind the leader after expending much of his energy breaking through the gate before the race. His racing style as a stalker, previous graded-stakes victory, and pedigree that supports running 10 furlongs make him a strong contender for the upcoming Belmont race.

Even if he doesn’t break the wire first, Antiquarian still checks off another Belmont box: value. With decent odds expected, he becomes a necessary inclusion on all exotic vertical tickets (exacta, trifecta, and superfecta). This shows that there is nothing outdated about his potential success.

I predict that Mindframe (Post 10/+350) will win the Belmont Stakes.

Let’s address Mindframe’s flaws early on, starting with a significant one – his lack of experience in stakes races. In the past 10 Belmont winners, nine had previously won a graded-stakes race. Furthermore, six out of seven horses who won the Belmont for their first graded-stakes victory had placed in an earlier graded-stakes race. It’s clear that success in high-quality races is a key indicator of potential success.

Despite having only two races under his belt and never racing past 1 1/16 miles, Mindframe shows a strong level of skill and ability.

How impressive is Mindframe’s performance? In his two victories, he won by a total of 21 1/4 lengths. His debut win at Gulfstream Park on March 30th saw him dominate the competition by 13 3/4 lengths, earning a remarkable 103 Beyer Speed Figure – the highest in the field. His second victory at the Kentucky Derby undercard was a 7 1/2-length romp, but jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. eased him up in the final furlong, resulting in a still-impressive 97 Beyer Speed Figure. Ortiz Jr. will be aboard Mindframe for his upcoming race on Saturday.

Mindframe’s paternal grandfather is Constitution, whose sire is Tapit. Tapit is renowned as one of the most successful stallions of the century and has a strong pedigree connection to the Belmont. He has produced four Belmont winners: Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), Tapwrit (2017), and Essential Quality (2021), making him the joint record holder for most winners in the event’s history.

Adding Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher to the equation only emphasizes the potential of Mindframe. Pletcher’s decision to enter the Triple Crown race after starting in an allowance speaks volumes about the horse’s talent and potential.

We’re listening.

Belmont Stakes info

• When: Saturday, June 8
• Time of post: 6:41 p.m. Eastern Time
• Location: Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York.
• Here’s how to watch: FS1 coverage starts at 10:30 a.m. ET, then switches to FOX from 4-7 p.m. ET, and finally moves to FS2 from 7-8 p.m. ET.

Belmont Stakes betting strategies

Tips for betting on the Belmont Stakes

Due to the venue change and reduced distance, we are seeking new indicators to consider when analyzing this year’s Belmont Stakes. Based on past winners and races at 1 1/4 miles in Saratoga, it appears that pace-pressers and stalkers tend to perform well at this track.

Excluding pace-setters, only three horses this century have managed to win the Belmont gate-to-wire: Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify, and the unlikely 38-1 longshot Da’Tara. Unless you possess the exceptional speed and stamina of these horses, attempting to wire the field in the Belmont Stakes is a daunting task.

Additionally, it is worth noting that closers were excluded from the analysis conducted by handicapper Noel Michaels on the 24 1 1/4-mile races at Saratoga since 2020. Out of these races, closers had a 2-for-24 record.

The key to winning the Belmont Stakes is having a pace-presser or stalker who stays close to the leaders. In 13 out of 24 races, the winner was within four lengths of the lead at the first call. Michaels found that speed horses running within a length of the pace-setter won nine races, which is 38%. Equibase reports that 15 of the last 17 Belmont winners were within 4 1/2 lengths of the leader after the first half-mile.

This is advantageous for horses such as Mindframe and The Wine Steward, who are both pressers, as well as Mystik Dan, who is a presser/stalker, and Antiquarian, who is a stalker.

The trends and statistics of the Belmont Stakes

• Just as Bob Baffert dominates the Kentucky Derby and D. Wayne Lukas rules the Preakness Stakes, Todd Pletcher is synonymous with the Belmont Stakes. The Hall of Fame trainer has claimed victory in the prestigious race four times with Rags to Riches (2007), Palace Malice (2013), Tapwrit (2017), and Mo Donegal (2022). In addition to these wins, Pletcher has also secured eight second-place finishes and four third-place finishes. Overall, Pletcher’s horses have hit the board an impressive 29% of the time since 2006.
• Who is the father of the horse matters significantly in the Belmont Stakes. The pedigree of recent winners shows that 15 out of the last 17 came from a sire who won a Grade 1 race of 1 1/8 miles or longer. While the distance of the race has been shortened this year, having a sire with stamina is still crucial for success in the race. If your horse’s father was a sprinter, they are likely to be at a disadvantage in this competition.
• The average winning odds in the last 20 Belmont Stakes is 10.38-1, with favorites winning five out of the last nine editions. However, excluding Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify, 15 out of the last 19 favorites failed to live up to their odds. In the past decade, there have been five instances where the winning horse had odds of 10-1 or greater, with a sixth horse (Tonalist) winning at 9-1 odds. These include Sir Winston (10.20-1), Creator (16.40-1), Palace Malice (13.80-1), Ruler On Ice (24.75-1), and Drosselmeyer (13-1).
• An analysis by Michaels revealed that horses starting from posts 1-3 have a 54% success rate in 1 1/4-mile races at Saratoga since 2020. Additionally, of the 24 most recent 10-furlong winners at Saratoga, seven were speed horses starting from posts 1-3. If you prefer betting on a closer like Sierra Leone, it is better to choose one starting from posts 7-10. The only closers to win a 1 1/4-mile race at Saratoga since 2020 have started from post 7 or outside.

Betting on horse racing is simple once you understand the basics.

Here are some general strategies to keep in mind when making your Preakness Stakes picks or betting on horse racing in general:

• Basic understanding of horse racing betting involves selecting a horse to win, place, or show. A “win” bet is for a horse to finish first, a “place” bet is for a horse to finish first or second, and a “show” bet is for a horse to finish first, second, or third. More complex betting options include exactas (picking the first and second-place horses in order) and trifectas (picking the first three horses in order).
• Before betting on the race, it is essential to conduct thorough research and analyze various factors such as the horses, jockeys, trainers, track conditions, and past performances. Consider factors like recent form, speed figures, class level, performance on similar track surfaces and distances, post position, workout times, and any changes in equipment or jockey.
• After conducting your research and selecting potential winners, it is time to place your bets. Visit the betting window or utilize a betting app to place your wagers. Remember to indicate the type of bet (win, place, show, exacta, etc.), the horse’s program number, and the desired wager amount. Verify your bet slip for accuracy before finalizing the transaction.

Belmont Stakes selections were made on Xday at X:XX a.m. ET.

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