Get your free selections for the Breeders’ Cup 2023 at Santa Anita Park, including top picks, long shots, and horses to fade in the biggest races of the event.
As the 11th edition of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships kicks off at Santa Anita Park, bettors will have the opportunity to wager on 14 races totaling $31 million. Our expert Breeders’ Cup picks and predictions are available to assist you as we analyze the odds from top horse racing betting sites.
Think of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships as a two-day betting extravaganza featuring 14 All-Star races of varying lengths, genders, and surfaces. From the quick five-furlong Sprint to the prestigious 1 1/4-mile Classic, each race highlights top-tier horses from around the globe. This event offers a one-of-a-kind chance to bet on high-quality races with numerous wagering options available.
The event spans two days and takes place at Santa Anita Park, located just outside Los Angeles, marking the 11th time overall and the sixth time since 2012. The excitement began with five races on Friday afternoon, all showcasing 2-year-olds. A standout event was the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile race, providing a preview of possible Kentucky Derby contenders for 2024.
Saturday will feature nine races, including the highly anticipated $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic. This race pits the top 3-year-olds against elite older horses in a challenging 1 1/4-mile competition. The winner of the Classic earns immortality and is likely to receive the prestigious Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year. The last three winners of the Classic – Flightline in 2022, Knicks Go in 2021, and Authentic in 2020 – all went on to be named Horse of the Year.
Check out our top Breeders’ Cup picks and predictions for the 2023 event at Santa Anita Park, with odds available on our recommended sports betting apps.
Odds for the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic
As of 8:12 a.m. ET on November 2, here are the Breeders Cup odds from FanDuel.
| Horse | Trainer | Position | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arcangelo | Jena Antonucci | SCR | |
| Zandon | Chad Brown | 2 | 12-1 |
| White Abarrio | Rick Dutrow | 3 | 4-1 |
| Missed the Cut | John Sadler | 4 | 30-1 |
| Derma Sotogake | Hidetaka Otonashi | 5 | 20-1 |
| Saudi Crown | Brad Cox | 6 | 12-1 |
| Clapton | Chad Summers | 7 | 20-1 |
| Ushba Tesoro | Noboru Takagi | 8 | 4-1 |
| Senor Buscador | Todd Fincher | 9 | 30-1 |
| Dreamlike | Todd Pletcher | 10 | 30-1 |
| Bright Future | Todd Pletcher | 11 | 10-1 |
| Arabian Knight | Bob Baffert | 12 | 3-1 |
| Proxy | Michael Stidham | 13 | 12-1 |
Predictions and selections for the Breeders’ Cup Classic
White Abarrio, starting from Post 3, is fading in the Breeders’ Cup with odds of 4-1 according to FanDuel.
In other words, if White Abarrio repeats his impressive performance in the Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga, where he dominated his rivals by 6 1/4 lengths in one of the premier races for older horses in the nation, then victory is assured.
But he won’t.
White Abarrio, tied with Japanese contender Ushba Tesoro as the co-second choice, boasts the highest Beyer Speed Figure in the field with a 110 earned in the Whitney. With a 2-for-4 record this year, he is expected to attract more betting attention due to the recent success of his Whitney performance.
However, White Abarrio has not competed in a 10-furlong race since the 2022 Kentucky Derby, where he had a difficult trip and finished in a disappointing 16th place. His training at Santa Anita, a track he has never raced on, has not been exceptional. Although White Abarrio appears to have improved since joining Rick Dutrow’s barn, there are doubts about whether he has the stamina to compete in a 1 1/4-mile race against this particular field.
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Long shot Zandon, with odds of 12-1 according to FanDuel, will be starting from Post 2 in the Breeders’ Cup.
We don’t anticipate Zandon will come out on top in this race. Especially considering his ongoing struggle with consistently finishing in second place. In his last nine races, he has only won once, which was in the Grade 2 Woodward at Aqueduct just a month ago.
In his three races prior to that, he finished second each time, including a runner-up position to White Abarrio in the Whitney. The son of Upstart has a tendency to come in second place, with six out of 13 races ending in that position, all in graded stakes events. He only failed to place once, finishing fourth in the December Grade 1 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct.
Once more, it is unlikely that Zandon will secure his fourth victory in his 14th race. However, we anticipate that his determined, consistently competitive, and late-running approach will earn him a spot on the board at a favorable price.
Our top pick for the Breeders’ Classic is Ushba Tesoro in Post 8, with odds of 4-1 according to FanDuel.
This bandwagon is risky to join. Although Japanese horses made a strong impression at the last California Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar two years ago, none have won the main race. Every year at high-profile races, Japanese horses are popular picks, but often disappoint, leading to a quick exit from the bandwagon.
Ushba Tesoro, a 6-year-old Japanese horse, broke the streak by winning the prestigious $12 million Dubai World Cup last March. With five wins in Japan and a $7.2 million victory in Dubai, Ushba Tesoro enters Santa Anita on a remarkable 7-for-his-last-8 winning streak.
Ushba Tesoro has only competed three times in 2023, with his most recent race being the Dubai World Cup. He has never raced in the US or gone 1 1/4 miles. With strong contenders like Arabian Knight, Saudi Crown, and Derma Sotogake all vying for the lead, Ushba Tesoro has the opportunity to capitalize on a potential speed battle and secure Japan’s biggest victory to date.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff pick
Clairiere is the favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, with Post 9 and odds of 4-1 according to FanDuel.
It is rarely this simple, but in the $2 million Distaff, it could be. When the gate opens, Idiomatic, Adare Manor, Randomized, and Search Results will likely sprint out to seek the lead, as they all prefer and require. Adare Manor enters with a five-race winning streak, including a Grade 1 at Del Mar and three Grade 2s at Santa Anita.
Adare Manor’s front-running style is not suited for this race, but it is perfect for the best horse in the field: Clairiere. While the other horses will tire themselves out in a speed duel, Clairiere and jockey Joel Rosario will patiently wait for the opportunity to make their move and take advantage of the situation.
Clairiere has shown her closing ability in previous Distaff races, finishing third last year and fourth in 2021. Other contenders in the field include Pretty Mischievous and Wet Paint, as well as Idiomatic, who has a strong record of wins. It’s important to consider these closers, especially if the race pace is not as expected. Look for the best horse in the best pace scenario for a chance at a good price.
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Breeders’ Cup Turf pick
Our top pick for the Breeders’ Cup Turf is Auguste Rodin, starting from Post 5 with odds of 3-1 according to FanDuel.
American runners have struggled in this race, with European horses winning seven of the last eight editions and 19 of the last 24. Considered the second most important Breeders’ Cup race after the Classic, the competition is fierce. The top American contender, Up to the Mark, has impressive credentials with three consecutive Grade 1 wins and five victories in his last six starts. Despite this, he is only fourth on the toteboard at 5-1, largely due to the strong presence of European horses and his lack of experience in racing over 12 furlongs.
Once more, the concept of home-field advantage proves futile in the context of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, as Europe continues to dominate with a fleet of seasoned runners accustomed to the 1 1/2-mile grass course. Leading the charge is the favorite Mostahdaf (5-2), boasting two Group 1 wins, including a wire-to-wire triumph in the Juddmonte International.
While he may lack value, you can’t go astray with him. However, we prefer another European standout, Auguste Rodin (3-1), who has the potential to offer more value with his three Group 1 wins. Auguste Rodin benefits from having top jockey Ryan Moore on board and being trained by Europe’s best trainer, Aidan O’Brien. His impressive wins include the Epsom Derby and the Irish Derby, two of the UK’s most prestigious races.
If either of the two contenders does not appear, French horse Onesto and the Japanese entry Shahryar, with $8 million in earnings from traveling around the world, could cause an upset.
Breeders’ Cup info
- The date is Saturday, November 4th at 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
- Santa Anita Park is located in Arcadia, CA.
- Viewing options for Saturday’s races include watching at 1:30 p.m. ET on USA Network and Peacock, with NBC and Peacock coverage starting at 3:30 p.m. ET and ending at 7 p.m. ET. FanDuel TV will also broadcast eight of the nine races scheduled for the day.
- Purse: $31 million
What you should know before betting on the Breeders’ Cup
Santa Anita Park is known for favoring speed over deep closers, putting them at a disadvantage. This is why Bob Baffert’s horses are always in contention, as he is known for training horses with front-end speed in mind.
This also clarifies why Baffert’s Arabian Knight, the 3-1 morning-line favorite in the Classic, is expected to attract significant betting interest and start the race at odds lower than the morning line. Baffert’s horses consistently receive heavy betting support, especially when racing at his home track.
When analyzing races at Santa Anita, remember to consider closers as potential contenders, especially at a Breeders’ Cup with many races likely to have fast paces that could lead to horses tiring out. However, it’s also wise to look for horses with strong front-running abilities, as they may have an advantage in certain races.
The Classic field this year lacks the high-speed horses seen in previous years. White Abarrio holds the fastest career mark in the field with a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. If he were to win with that same figure, it would tie Raven’s Pass in 2008 for the slowest winning Beyer in the last 10 Classics held at Santa Anita.
The average winning Beyer speed figure in the 10 Classics races held at Santa Anita is 114.6. Only two winning Beyers in the past century have been lower than 110: Drosselmeyer’s 104 in 2011 and Accelerate’s 105 five years ago.
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Breeders’ Cup betting strategies
When analyzing the Classic, don’t be fooled by the average win payout of $23.50, which is the third-highest among the 14 races. This statistic is misleading due to the record-breaking upset in Breeders’ Cup history, when Arcangues won in 1993 at Santa Anita with a staggering payout of $269.20 for a $2 bet.
In the past decade, favorites have only come out victorious three times, with Flightline, Accelerate, and American Pharaoh taking the title in the last 10 years. Over the last 20 Classics, favorites have won six times, falling within the expected 35-40% success rate for favorites. However, the Classic is not typically a race that favors long shots or underdogs, with only rare exceptions like Arcangues breaking through.
In the past decade, the average winning payout for a $2 bet has been $8. Breaking this down further, the average Classic win payout over the last two decades is $12.60 (5.30-1). From 2003 to 2022, the winning payout was $12.40 or lower. In the last 10 years, every winner had odds of 6.10-1 or worse, with nine out of the last 10 winners being one of the top three betting choices.
If you want to hit a big win, Santa Anita is the place to do it. Historically, most Classic winners at Santa Anita have been long shots, with only two favorites winning on the iconic track. The last mild long shot to win was Fort Larned in 2012, paying $9.40. Zenyatta, the iconic favorite, won on the all-weather track in 2009.
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