Receive complimentary Kentucky Derby selections and forecasts for 2024: Professional selections for the 150th Run for the Roses.

Analyzing a 20-horse Kentucky Derby race can be challenging due to the overwhelming amount of information to sift through. Despite conflicting facts, we strive to provide our free picks and predictions for the Kentucky Derby based on the odds from top horse racing betting sites.

Before the gates open at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., just before 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, you must answer a series of challenging questions in order to place a bet on the 150th Kentucky Derby.

Is the betting favorite Fierceness the standout horse in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field, or does Sierra Leone have a strong case for the title due to its dominance over many Derby competitors in prep races?

Adding to the excitement is Forever Young, the Japanese horse that has been labeled as the top contender for this year’s Derby. Will this be the year that a Japanese horse wins the Run for the Roses? And what about the UAE Derby winner? Could this be their chance to make history at Churchill Downs?

These inquiries only serve to enhance the anticipation surrounding one of America’s most legendary sporting spectacles, where the elation of triumph and the despair of loss frequently intersect mere moments after the competition commences.

No matter if you’re celebrating a win or feeling dejected by a loss, our analysis of the Kentucky Derby odds, along with our expert picks and predictions, will provide you with valuable information to enhance your experience during the thrilling two minutes of the race.

Here are three horses to watch for in the Kentucky Derby, along with our top free picks and predictions for Saturday’s race at Churchill Downs. Make sure to check out the odds from our recommended Kentucky Derby betting sites to maximize your chances of winning.

Kentucky Derby odds

Check out the latest post position list and odds for the 2024 Kentucky Derby from FanDuel Racing, and be sure to take advantage of our FanDuel Racing promo code.

Check out our definitive Kentucky Derby race as well.

Predictions and picks for the Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby’s top choice is Fierceness, starting from post position 16 with odds of +250.

Meet the unquestionably quickest and most skilled horse in the Derby 150 lineup. Also, meet the most mood-swinging horse in the group.

When the fierce and unstoppable Fierceness enters the scene, everyone else is left in the dust. With the fastest Beyer Speed Figure in the field, a remarkable 110 points achieved in dominating fashion in the Florida Derby, he has proven his superiority time and time again. His impressive victories by wide margins in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and maiden debut only further solidify his status as unbeatable when he unleashes his full potential. Born from the lineage of City of Light, Fierceness is a force to be reckoned with.

If he doesn’t perform well, he becomes almost unbearable to watch, introducing us to his melancholic side. Following his impressive debut, he disappointed by finishing seventh, more than 20 lengths behind, in the Champagne Stakes as the favorite. In his first race of 2024, as the heavy favorite in the Holy Bull, Fierceness lost the lead in the final stretch and ended up finishing third behind Hades and Domestic Product.

Fierceness is also challenging Derby history. Only two Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners have managed to win at Churchill Downs: Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016. While Fierceness has the talent and speed to potentially lead the pack and win, the question remains – will he harness his manic or depressive tendencies on race day?

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Long shot Honor Marie (Post 7, odds +2000) in the Kentucky Derby.

This son of Honor Code has not won a race in over five months, with his last victory coming in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs on Nov. 25. Only two horses this century have won the Kentucky Derby without winning a race as a three-year-old. He finished fifth in the Risen Star, trailing behind the winner Sierra Leone, third-place finisher Catching Freedom, and fourth-place finisher Resilience.

While Honor Marie may not be expected to outperform some of his competitors, he should still be included on your tickets as the top choice to exceed expectations.

Yes, Honor Marie has a best Beyer Speed Figure of 96, which puts him in contention as 11 of the last 14 Derby winners had a triple-digit Beyer. It is difficult to expect a horse to reach three figures if their best Beyer is below 95. Additionally, Honor Marie has been successful in the exacta in all three of his Churchill Downs trips. The Risen Star race has proven to be important in the Derby trail season, as the top three finishers all went on to win their next races.

Honor Marie’s impressive performance in the Louisiana Derby, with a final three furlongs clocking in at 37.01 seconds and a final furlong at 12.17 seconds, solidifies him as a strong contender according to Jennie Rees’ Final Fractions Theory. This theory suggests that serious Derby contenders must achieve at least a 38-second final three furlongs and/or a 13-second final furlong in their last prep race. This standard has been met by 29 of the last 33 Derby winners, including 12 of the last 13.

We are selecting Catching Freedom as our top choice to win the Kentucky Derby, starting from Post 4 with odds of +800.

This race was far from a sure thing, especially with Sierra Leone in the mix. The horse, who was previously in a tight battle for favoritism with Fierceness, is known for being a strong closer. Sierra Leone has already defeated Catching Freedom in the Risen Star and has the credentials to potentially win this race without causing any surprise or disappointment similar to a bad beat like Rich Strike.

We will select a few additional details to begin with. The race will begin with Catching Freedom in Post 4. It has been a decade since a horse starting in Gates 1 through 4 has won, with the last being Super Saver in 2010. Last year, Two Phils finished in second place from Post 3, marking the first time a horse starting in the first four posts had placed since 2017. Similar to Fierceness, who has a pattern of winning every other race, Catching Freedom is also due for a setback after his victory in the Louisiana Derby.

However, there is a distinction. Catching Freedom has not disappointed in any of his five starts, boasting a record of 3 wins, 0 losses, and 1 tie. He has triumphed in two stakes races, the Smarty Jones and the Louisiana Derby. What sets him apart from the competition is his consistent improvement in Beyer ratings with each race, reaching an impressive 97 in his Louisiana Derby victory. In addition, Catching Freedom excels in both aspects of the Final Fraction Theory, recording a swift 36.58-second three-furlong time and finishing his last furlong in a remarkable 12.05 seconds.

Unlike Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom is not always a guaranteed winner. Although he has shown his ability to come from behind and win races, such as the Louisiana Derby where he overtook Track Phantom and held off Honor Marie, he also showed in the Risen Star that he can fall short, finishing in third place despite a strong effort by jockey Flavien Prat.

The ability to adapt and stalk effectively is a strong advantage in this race, especially considering the reasonable price you can expect.

Check out our analysis of the top Triple Crown horse racing odds leading up to and following the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby info

• When: Saturday, May 4
• Time of post: 6:57 p.m. Eastern Time
• Location: Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
• Instructions on how to watch: NBC Sports.

Kentucky Derby betting strategies

Things to consider before placing a bet on the Kentucky Derby

Creating successful Derby tickets requires careful planning, beginning with evaluating the horses at the back of the field and moving towards the front. By using a process of elimination to rule out slower horses, bettors can improve their odds of choosing winning combinations. By methodically analyzing the field in this way, bettors can increase their chances of success.

The second key to success is to identify long shot and value horses, such as Honor Marie and Stronghold, who may not win but have the potential to finish in the top positions and enhance your exotic bets. To create a winning exacta, trifecta, or superfecta ticket, it is crucial to find value throughout the field.

These horses are the ones that can result in staggering payouts that every horseplayer dreams of, like the legendary Holy Grail, such as the life-changing $321,500.10 superfecta in 2022.

Additionally, it is important to include deep closers on your betting ticket. Handicapper Mike Shutty has noted that closers with odds of 10-1 or higher have consistently placed in the superfecta for 10 consecutive years. In nine out of 10 years, two closers have occupied spots in the top four. Furthermore, since 2012, 11 horses with odds of at least 26-1 have finished in the top four.

Have we emphasized the importance of identifying the correct long shots?

After completing that step, select a few horses that you feel confident in and include them as key horses on your betting tickets. These horses will serve as the anchors for all of your wagers.

Trends and statistics for the Kentucky Derby

Before Rich Strike’s victory two years ago, Derby winners in the points era were typically horses with strong front-end speed.

In a modern, 20-horse Derby, the expectation was for a horse to secure a position near the front and maintain it with tactical speed in the final half-mile. However, closers such as Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in the previous year defied this norm by setting blazing paces in the first half-mile. Their competitors struggled to keep up with sub-45.5-second splits, ultimately allowing a closer to come from behind and snatch victory out of nowhere.

Since the introduction of the points system in 2013, eight out of the 11 horses that finished first (excluding Maximum Security in 2019 and Medina Spirit in 2021) were either in first, second, or third place at the half-mile mark. The only exceptions were Orb, Rich Strike, and Mage, who were the only closers to win during the points era. All three horses took advantage of fast early fractions to secure victory.

This means that pace plays a crucial role in your selections. If you believe that horses like Dornoch, Fierceness, Track Phantom, and other front-runners will dominate the race like the Road Runner from Warner Brothers, then a closer like Sierra Leone is the best option for you. However, if you believe that the Derby will follow the trends of past years where front-end speed and other reliable indicators of success are key, then Fierceness, Forever Young, and Catching Freedom are better choices.

These horses are the ones who set the pace, press the leaders, or stalk the front runners until the final stretch of the race.

How to place a bet on horse racing

Here are some additional general strategies to keep in mind when making your Kentucky Derby selections, as well as when wagering on horse racing in general:

• Basic horse racing betting involves choosing a horse to win, place, or show. A win bet is for the horse to finish first, a place bet is for the horse to finish first or second, and a show bet is for the horse to finish first, second, or third. More advanced betting options include exactas (picking the first and second-place horses in order) and trifectas (picking the first three horses in order).
• Analyzing the race: Prior to wagering, it is crucial to conduct thorough research on the horses, jockeys, trainers, track conditions, and previous performances. Evaluate key factors such as recent form, speed ratings, class level, and the horse’s performance on similar track surfaces and distances. Additionally, take into account considerations like post position, workout times, and any alterations in equipment or jockey.
• After conducting thorough research and selecting your potential winners, it is now time to place your bets. You can visit the betting window or utilize a betting app to make your wagers. Remember to indicate the type of bet you are placing (such as win, place, show, exacta, etc.), the program number of the horse, and the amount you wish to bet. Before finalizing your bet, double-check your bet slip to ensure accuracy.

Picks for the Kentucky Derby were made at 2:38 a.m. ET on Thursday.

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