Prediction, Picks & Odds for Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal: Masvidal Favored in UFC Fight
Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal will face off in a boxing ring rather than an Octagon in Anaheim, California on Saturday for a match scheduled for 10 rounds or less. Our Diaz vs. Masvidal prediction is based on the odds from top boxing betting sites.
Diaz and Masvidal will face each other once again after more than four years, this time in a ring at 175 lbs. instead of the Octagon. Their initial meeting took place at welterweight (170 pounds in MMA) during UFC 244 in late 2019, where Masvidal dominated the striking exchanges and won by doctor’s stoppage after three rounds.
After a series of four consecutive losses, 39-year-old Masvidal announced his retirement from MMA following a decision loss to Gilbert Burns in April 2023. Nearly 20 years after his first and only sanctioned boxing match, which he won in a four-round decision back in 2005, Masvidal has returned to the ring.
In contrast, Diaz concluded his time in the UFC by submitting Tony Ferguson at UFC 279 in September 2022 before making his professional boxing debut against Jake Paul in August of the previous year. Despite his best efforts, the 39-year-old from Stockton, Calif., ultimately lost to the younger Paul in a unanimous decision after 10 rounds.
Prediction and pick for Diaz vs. Masvidal
Check the odds on our top sports betting sites and rate your confidence level on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
- Prediction: Masvidal is favored to win with a moneyline of -227 according to BetMGM, earning a four-star rating.
Analysis of the Diaz vs. Masvidal fight
In a fight between two experienced combat sports veterans who are both past their prime, I am betting on the one who is slightly less worn out.
Although Masvidal finished his MMA career with a losing streak of four fights and has had almost 20 more cage fights than Diaz, it is evident to those who have followed their UFC careers that Diaz has slowed down significantly more than Masvidal. Gone are the days when Diaz would aggressively attack his opponents with a flurry of combinations and seemingly endless stamina.
Based on his recent encounters with Paul, Masvidal, and Leon Edwards, it appears that Diaz has abandoned his traditional high-volume boxing style in favor of a more varied approach, incorporating elements of gamesmanship, potshotting, and the occasional Stockton slap.
On the contrary, Masvidal is still a crafty and strategic boxer who successfully defended against more than 60% of his opponents’ significant strikes during his time in the UFC. In their 2019 fight at Madison Square Garden, Masvidal landed more than double the number of strikes compared to Diaz, and likely would have continued to widen the gap if the doctor had not intervened. With this in mind, I anticipate Masvidal will replicate his last professional victory by consistently outstriking Diaz on his way to a win.
Masvidal, who is 39 years old, is considered a strong favorite in the upcoming matchup. The moneyline for a straight-up win ranges from -270 to -227 at our top sportsbooks as of the early hours of Thursday morning.
Forecast: Masvidal is favored to win with a moneyline of -227, implying a 69.42% probability of winning according to BetMGM.
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The best bet for Diaz vs. Masvidal
Even though the boxing match on Saturday has been officially approved and recognized as professional, gamblers will struggle to find many betting options related to props and specific rounds.
As the fight night approaches in just a few days, it is doubtful that we will see any betting lines released. However, if they do become available, it may be worth considering placing a bet on Masvidal winning by decision.
The Florida native is not known for fighting with a sense of urgency. He has gone the distance in over half of his 35 MMA victories and in 13 of his 17 career losses. Diaz, on the other hand, is exceptionally durable, having only been defeated by TKO twice in his 34 professional MMA contests.
The odds for the Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal fight are being calculated.
The latest odds from BetMGM as of Thursday.
| Diaz | Method of victory | Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| +200 | Win outright | -227 |
| N/A | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | N/A |
| N/A | Win by unanimous decision | N/A |
| +1200 | Draw | +1200 |
Comparison between Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal
| Nate Diaz | Jorge Masvidal | |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Age | 39 |
| 6-foot-0 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 175 lbs. | Weight | 175 lbs. |
| 76″ | Reach | 74″ |
| 0-1 (21-13 in MMA) | Record | 1-0 (35-17 in MMA) |
Information on the Diaz vs. Masvidal fight
- When: The main card begins on Saturday, July 6 at 9 pm ET.
- Where: The Honda Center in Anaheim, California.
- How to view: Pay-per-view, DAZN, UFC Fight Pass
- Top pick: Masvidal -227 (BetMGM odds)
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The Diaz vs. Masvidal selection was finalized on Xday at X:XX p.m. Eastern Time.
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