The favorites for the July 4, 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest are Esper and Sudo. Get the latest odds, picks, and information here.
The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, a traditional holiday event, is held on July Fourth with betting options offered on top sports betting websites. We are analyzing the betting markets and sharing our expert predictions for the 2024 competition at Coney Island, where Joey Chestnut will not be participating.
Joey Chestnut’s exclusion from the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest for his affiliation with a vegan hot dog company has diminished the excitement surrounding the iconic Fourth of July competition. This is not satire, but a disappointing reality.
Chestnut’s absence at Thursday’s event has significantly expanded the betting market, with most top sports betting apps now offering odds. Geoffrey Esper is currently the favored to win the men’s competition, while Miki Sudo remains the top pick in the women’s division of the eating contest.
Odds for the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
Current odds as of Thursday at 7:45 a.m. ET: Best available odds: |Worst available odds: ❄️
Men’s outright winner
| Name | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoffrey Esper | -115 | +105 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
| James Webb | +165 | +150 | +130 | +125 ❄️ | +160 |
| Nick Wehry | +900 | +1000 | +550 ❄️ | +1000 | +850 |
| Patrick Bertoletti | +900 | +850 | +750 | +750 | +850 |
| Field | +2500 | OFF | OFF | +2500 | +2500 |
| Gideon Oji | +4000 | +6000 | +2500 ❄️ | +6000 | +5000 |
| Derek Henderickson | +7500 | +10000 | +8000 | +9000 | +7500 |
| Darrien Thomas | +7500 | +10000 | +8000 | +9000 | +7500 |
| Max Stanford | +7500 | +10000 | +8000 | +9000 | +7500 |
| George Chiger | +7500 | +10000 | +10000 | +9000 | +7500 |
Many sportsbooks now include the option to bet on the “field,” which consists of any competitor not specifically listed by the sportsbook, excluding Joey Chestnut if he competes.
Men’s favorite: Geoffrey Esper
FanDuel offers the best odds at +105, implying a 48.78% probability.
Although Esper has never emerged victorious in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, he is currently the favored contender in a competition without Chestnut. He secured second place in the previous two years, consuming a total of 49 hot dogs and buns in the last edition of the event.
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Women’s outright winner
| Name | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miki Sudo | -900 | -750 | -1600 | -950 | -800 ❄️ |
| Mayoi Ebihara | +500 | +450 | +500 | +380 ❄️ | +500 |
| Michelle Lesco | +4000 | +7500 | +2500 ❄️ | +4000 | +5000 |
| Katie Prettyman | +5000 | +10000 | +5000 | +8500 | OFF |
| Field | +5000 | OFF | OFF | +4500 | +4000 ❄️ |
| Larell Marie Mele | +10000 | +7500 ❄️ | +10000 | +11000 | OFF |
Women’s favorite: Miki Sudo
FanDuel offers the best odds at -750, implying a 90.91% probability of winning.
Sudo has been the winner of this competition in all but one of the last nine years, establishing herself as a dominant force similar to Chestnut on the men’s side. Last summer, she successfully defended her world title by consuming 39.5 hot dogs. After taking time off for pregnancy in 2022, she is aiming for a third consecutive championship this year.
Her chances of -750 suggest an 88.24% likelihood of achieving the feat, while the -1600 odds from BetMGM indicate a 94.12% probability.
Only new customers are eligible for this offer. They must deposit a minimum of $5 and place their first bet of $5 or more. If the bet is successful within 72 hours, they will receive $200 in Bonus Bets.
Predictions and picks for the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
Selections made by Morgan Xaviero on Tuesday, July 2 at 5:30 p.m. ET. Please note that odds may have changed since the time of selection.
Geoffrey Esper (+100)
Esper’s odds were as short as -200 after Chestnut was disqualified from this year’s competition, but the market has since shifted away from the favorite in the days leading up to the July 4 event. In my opinion, this could be a mistake.
The 49-year-old veteran has established himself as the top competitor in the field of competitive eating, consistently placing second behind Chestnut for the past three years. With numerous records in various food challenges, the only achievement missing from his impressive resume is a victory in the world’s most renowned eating competition.
Despite eating 49 hot dogs and buns last year, which was a decrease from his personal best of 51, Esper still consumed more than his top competitor James Webb, who has only eaten 47.5 in his two attempts. Esper has been training for weeks in preparation for his chance to become the champion at Coney Island. It seems like this could finally be his moment of triumph.
Top chance of winning: +100 on bet365
Patrick Bertoletti (+800)
Should we really still consider Bertoletti as such a huge underdog? Despite being listed at +2000 odds after Chestnut’s departure, he is still a great value bet at his current price.
No one in this competition, from either team, has ever surpassed Bertoletti’s record of 55 hot dogs eaten in 2009, when he placed third. He continued to excel in subsequent years, finishing in the top three in 2010 (37), 2011 (53), and 2012 (51) before taking a ten-year break from competitive eating. During this time, he also made a brief appearance on America’s Got Talent.
Two years ago, he came back to the competition and placed fifth with 33.5 HDB. While that performance won’t be enough this year, he managed to consume an impressive 48.25 HDB in Cleveland last month to secure his spot in the event. Despite some commendable attempts, he has never won this competition.
Setting a personal record for all competitors except Esper, Bertoletti has cleared that mark in past years. With such a favorable price, it’s difficult not to favor Bertoletti’s chances of causing a significant upset.
Top odds: +800 at Caesars
Terms and conditions apply.
Field (+2500)
When it comes to consuming hot dogs, there is generally little variation from year to year. Competitive eaters in the field can typically predict with a high degree of accuracy how many hot dogs the top competitors will eat.
This prop bet is intriguing because it features several competitors who have never competed on such a big stage before. YouTube stars like William Lyon, King Yamamoto, and Radim Dvoracek have shown their eating skills online, but have yet to make their mark at Coney Island.
With Chestnut out of the competition, there’s a chance to make history on July 4th. It’s worth taking a shot at these odds.
DraftKings offers the best odds at +2500.
Michelle Lesco (+2500)
I want to make it clear that I believe Sudo is unbeatable on the women’s side, but I’m not willing to bet on her winning her 10th consecutive contest at odds of -1200.
If there is another contender worth wagering on, it is without a doubt Lesco. In 2021, she emerged victorious while Sudo was unable to compete. Lesco consumed 30.75 HDB that year, and her personal record of 32 is only slightly lower than Mayoi Ebihara, who is priced at a third of Lesco’s odds.
Once more, I believe Sudo is not a popular choice for betting, so I see no point in focusing on those with slim chances of winning. However, considering Lesco’s track record and expertise in this competition, I am willing to place a small bet at the favorable odds offered.
Top odds: +2500 at BetMGM
The bonus bets must be used within 7 days of being awarded. This offer is only available to new customers. Other terms and conditions may also apply.
Winners of the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in the past
| Year | Men’s winner | Hot dogs | Women’s winner | Hot dogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024* | Patrick Bertoletti | 58 | Mike Sudo | 51 |
| 2023 | Joey Chestnut | 62 | Miki Sudo | 39.5 |
| 2022 | Joey Chestnut | 63 | Miki Sudo | 40 |
| 2021 | Joey Chestnut | 76 | Michelle Lesco | 30.75 |
| 2020 | Joey Chestnut | 75 | Miki Sudo | 48.5 |
| 2019 | Joey Chestnut | 71 | Miki Sudo | 31 |
| 2018 | Joey Chestnut | 74 | Miki Sudo | 37 |
| 2017 | Joey Chestnut | 72 | Miki Sudo | 41 |
| 2016 | Joey Chestnut | 70 | Miki Sudo | 38.5 |
| 2015 | Matt Stonie | 62 | Miki Sudo | 38 |
| 2014 | Joey Chestnut | 61 | Miki Sudo | 34 |
| 2013 | Joey Chestnut | 69 | Sonya Thomas | 36.75 |
Joey Chestnut was disqualified from the 2024 competition because of his affiliation with a vegan hot dog company.
Prop bets for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest are being offered by Nathan.
As of now, only BetMGM and DraftKings are providing prop bets for the 2024 competition. We will keep you informed when other betting books decide to offer them as well.
The odds listed below are provided by BetMGM.
Total hot dogs eaten
| Name | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geoffrey Esper | 49.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Miki Sudo | 40.5 | -115 | -115 |
Bonus bets must be used within 7 days of receiving them. This offer is limited to one per new customer and is subject to additional terms and conditions.
Frequently Asked Questions about Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
Who are the top contenders in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?
Geoffrey Esper (+105) and Miki Sudo (-1600) are the frontrunners for the 2024 competitions, as Joey Chestnut is ineligible to compete on the men’s side.
What is the date of the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?
The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is traditionally held on July 4th each year.
What is the location of the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?
The competition takes place at Nathan’s Famous in Coney Island, New York.
How to view the competition
The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest airs on ESPN, starting at 10 a.m. Eastern Time.
What is the duration of the contest?
Both the men’s and women’s competitions last for 10 minutes.
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