Experts’ picks for the 2024 NBA Finals: Mavericks vs. Celtics
As Game 1 of the NBA Finals kicks off tonight, we have compiled the 2024 NBA Finals predictions and expert picks for the Mavericks vs. Celtics matchup, along with the top NBA odds available.
With the 2024 NBA Finals featuring the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks on the horizon, there is much speculation on which team will come out on top. The majority of fans are leaning towards the Celtics, who are set to take on the Mavericks in Game 1 as 6.5-point favorites at home tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC at TD Garden.
Boston’s strong performance is highlighted by their position as the clear frontrunner in the NBA championship betting odds. They have emerged victorious in 12 out of their last 14 playoff games, a trend that is reflected in our analysis of the NBA Finals odds and betting preview.
Despite this, there are still supporters of the underdog Mavericks, including one of our NBA experts who believes the Mavs have a chance at winning their first title since 2011.
In addition to our expert NBA Finals picks, we have compiled the top consensus NBA picks from various sources in the industry, along with the best odds available on our recommended NBA betting sites.
Odds to win the NBA Finals series and MVP.
| Market | Mavericks | Celtics |
|---|---|---|
| Series winner | +188 via FanDuel | -210 via Caesars |
| Series spread | +1.5 games (-120 via Caesars) | -1.5 games (+106 via FanDuel) |
| Series total games | Over 5.5 (-165 via BetMGM) | Under 5.5 (+138 via FanDuel) |
| Finals MVP favorite | Luka Doncic (+225 via bet365) | Jayson Tatum (-115 via Caesars) |
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NBA Finals consensus picks
| Expert | Publication | Series prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Bailey | Bleacher Report | Mavericks in seven |
| Dan Shaughnessy | Boston Globe | Mavericks in seven |
| Andrew Callahan | Boston Herald | Celtics in six |
| Zack Cox | Boston Herald | Celtics in six |
| Tim Cowlishaw | Dallas Morning News | Mavericks in five |
| Mike Curtis | Dallas Morning News | Mavericks in six |
| Zach Lowe | ESPN | Celtics in six |
| Jason McIntyre | FOX Sports | Mavericks in six |
| Steve Aschburner | NBA.com | Celtics in six |
| John Schuhmann | NBA.com | Celtics to win |
| Michael C. Wright | NBA.com | Mavericks in seven |
| Greg Anthony | NBA TV | Mavericks to win |
| Stephen Noh | Sporting News | Celtics in six |
| Peter Dewey | Sports Illustrated | Celtics in six |
| James Edwards III | The Athletic | Celtics in five |
| John Hollinger | The Athletic | Celtics in six |
| Jon Krawczynski | The Athletic | Mavericks in seven |
| J.E. Skeets | The Athletic | Mavericks in seven |
| Howard Beck | The Ringer | Celtics in six |
| Danny Chau | The Ringer | Celtics in six |
| Michael Pina | The Ringer | Celtics in five |
| Charles Barkley | TNT | Celtics to win |
| Shaquille O’Neal | TNT | Mavericks to win |
| Kenny Smith | TNT | Celtics to win |
| Jeff Zillgitt | USA Today | Celtics in six |
| Dan Devine | Yahoo! Sports | Celtics in six |
Top NBA Finals predictions
Zach Lowe (ESPN)
The Mavs have a strong chance of winning. They have the best player and if Irving plays well, they could have the best two players on the court. In that situation, they could become champions. However, if Porzingis is not at full strength, I would still choose the Mavs. But if Porzingis is able to play at his best, Boston should have just enough answers on both offense and defense. They are aware of the challenge ahead and will need to bring a new level of energy and focus to succeed. This moment has been building up for years, and now is their chance to seize it.
Choose: Celtics to win in six games (odds of +500 on bet365)
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Howard Beck (The Ringer)
At this point, it would be unwise to underestimate the Mavericks. They possess the talent, scoring ability, and defensive prowess to challenge any team. However, the Celtics have a plethora of strengths – shooting, playmaking, adaptable defenders, and a wealth of Finals experience. I predict the Celtics will win in six games.
Choose: Celtics to win in six games, with odds of +500 on bet365.
Dan Devine (Yahoo! Sports)
Dallas faced their biggest challenge in the playoffs against Oklahoma City. Now with Porzingis back, Boston appears to be a stronger and more well-rounded team than the Thunder. They have more experience on the big stage, as well as more players who can create and make shots at a high level. While Luka will undoubtedly be a threat, the Celtics have proven to be the top team in the NBA all season and are likely to remain so until the end.
Choose the Celtics to win in six games, with odds of +500 on bet365.
Andy Bailey (Bleacher Report)
Dallas boasts the top two closers in Doncic and Kyrie Irving, supported by a strong lineup including Gafford and Washington. With their defensive versatility and talented supporting cast, they have what it takes to lift the stars. In close games, Luka and Kyrie will outshine Tatum, Brown, and White to secure a series victory in seven games.
Choice: Mavericks to win in seven games with odds of +800 on DraftKings.
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Tim Cowlishaw from the Dallas Morning News
Dallas follows Luka’s lead, and Luka is currently the top player in the league. He is arguably the best active player in the league. I believe the Celtics may be able to contain Kyrie Irving better than the Wolves did, possibly with Jrue Holiday defending him. However, there seems to be little that can be done to stop Luka. Boston has been just as effective as Dallas, if not better, at finishing games, but I would still trust Doncic to take the final shot over Tatum, Brown, and the rest of the Celtics. Sometimes teams just find their groove, and Dallas is currently in one.
Choose the Mavericks to win in five games at +1500 odds from BetMGM.
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The Dallas Morning News’ Mike Curtis
The Mavericks are expected to face their toughest opponent in the playoffs when they go up against the Celtics. Both teams have strong backcourts and versatility on both offense and defense. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been playing well together, and if their scoring is shut down, they can rely on their big men, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, for a potent lob game. Close games are expected, but I predict that the Mavericks will win the series in six games.
Choose the Mavericks to win in six games at +550 odds on FanDuel.
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Dan Shaughnessy (Boston Globe)
I predict the Mavericks will win in seven games. Please don’t take offense. This is Jayson Tatum’s and Jaylen Brown’s time to shine. Although the Celtics have the best roster, have won the most games, and are 12-2 in the playoffs, I still have doubts and worry about Kyrie Irving potentially winning it all.
Choose the Mavericks to win in seven games, with odds of +800 on DraftKings.
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Zack Cox (Boston Herald)
The Celtics have a strong and versatile team that can challenge opponents in various ways, making it difficult for their opponents to find a single path to victory in the Finals. However, the success of the team ultimately relies on Tatum and Brown, who are looking to overcome past playoff disappointments. If they perform at their best and outshine everyone except Doncic, Boston has a good chance of winning their 18th championship.
Choose: Celtics in six games with odds of +500 on bet365.
Peter Dewey (Sports Illustrated)
While Dallas’ offense lacks the floor spacing of Boston’s, I still believe Doncic is the standout player in this series. However, the Celtics have consistently proven themselves as the top team throughout the season. I don’t expect Dallas to be dominated like Boston’s opponents in the East, but with the Celtics’ track record of winning on the road in the playoffs, I predict they will close out the series in six games.
Choose the Celtics to win in six games, with odds of +500 on bet365.
Stephen Noh (Sporting News)
Boston’s upcoming game will serve as their toughest challenge in the playoffs. A strong victory would put to rest any doubts about the Celtics having an easy path to the championship. The Mavericks, however, are unlikely to allow that to happen. They have battled through tough competition to reach the Finals and have shown themselves to be a strong team on both offense and defense. Doncic’s talent will likely make the series close, as he is a force to be reckoned with. Nevertheless, the Celtics hold the advantage on both ends of the court.
Choose the Celtics to win in six games, with odds of +500 on bet365.
Steve Aschburner (NBA.com)
This marks the Celtics’ sixth appearance in the conference finals in the last eight years and their second trip to the Finals in three years. Star players Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have come close to winning a championship, but are still missing a ring. Coach Joe Mazzulla’s future was uncertain in 2023, and Al Horford is eager to remove himself from the list of players with the most playoff games without a title. While urgency alone is not enough to win a championship, when combined with talent, roster depth, experience, continuity, and home court advantage, the Celtics have a strong chance at success.
Prediction: Celtics to win in six games, with odds of +500 on bet365.
Michael C. Wright (NBA.com)
Boston has not faced a significant challenge in the playoffs so far. They did not have to play against Jimmy Butler in the first round, and Donovan Mitchell and Tyrese Haliburton missed some games in the following rounds. Dallas, on the other hand, is fully healthy and playing at their best with two of the best closers in the league.
Choose the Mavericks to win in seven games, with odds of +800 on DraftKings.
Jason McIntyre (FOX Sports)
Before I make a decision on the series, I want to watch a game first. I am leaning towards choosing Dallas again, but it might be difficult for them to win a fourth consecutive playoff series without home court advantage. Despite this, the Mavericks have been performing well in the playoffs, with a 6-1 record both straight up and against the spread as underdogs. On the other hand, the Celtics have struggled recently, with a 2-6 ATS record in their last eight games due to being overvalued based on their regular season performance.
Choose: Mavericks to win in six games with odds of +550 on FanDuel.
Jeff Zillgitt (USA Today)
The Celtics possess an abundance of offensive weapons and defensive options, making it likely that they will win the title unless their offense significantly falters for an extended period.
Choose: Celtics to win in six games (+500 odds on bet365)
Predictions for Game 1 and the overall series winner of the NBA Finals.
Game 1 predictions
- Player props for the Mavericks vs. Celtics game
- Mavericks vs. Celtics parlay
- Player props and odds for Luka Doncic
- Player props and odds for Jayson Tatum
Series predictions
- NBA Finals expert picks
- NBA Finals consensus picks
- Predictions and odds for NBA Finals MVP
Tips for placing bets on the NBA Finals
It is important to understand the various types of bets available for NBA games, such as prop bets, spread bets, and Over/Under bets, before making any wagers. Choosing what to bet on is crucial, as is selecting the best sports betting apps to use. After deciding on your bets, take time to research the teams, players, and recent performances, considering factors like injuries, team chemistry, and home-court advantage.
Examine the important player matchups and their potential impact on the game. For instance, the presence of a strong center on one team against a weak interior defense on the other could be a crucial factor. Evaluate how each team’s strengths correspond with the weaknesses of their opponent. For example, a team proficient in three-point shooting may have an edge over a team lacking in perimeter defense.
Injuries have the potential to greatly influence the result of a game. It is important to stay informed on the most recent injury updates and player conditions. The absence of a key player can alter the course of a game. Analyze the teams’ recent performances to determine their current form. Teams that are performing well heading into the Finals often carry momentum. Consider factors such as win streaks, defensive and offensive effectiveness, and how they have matched up against tough opponents.
By integrating these tactics into your NBA Finals betting strategy, you can place wiser and potentially more profitable bets. Remember to gamble responsibly and only wager what you can afford.
2024 NBA Finals schedule
| Game | Location | Date |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | TD Garden (Boston) | Thursday, June 6 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 2 | TD Garden (Boston) | Sunday, June 9 at 8 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 3 | American Airlines Center (Dallas) | Wednesday, June 12 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 4 | American Airlines Center (Dallas) | Friday, June 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 5 | TD Garden (Boston) | Monday, June 17 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 6 | American Airlines Center (Dallas) | Thursday, June 20 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 7 | TD Garden (Boston) | Sunday, June 23 at 8 p.m. ET (ABC) |
NBA Finals FAQ
Which team is expected to win the NBA Finals?
The Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win the 2024 NBA Finals against the Dallas Mavericks. With odds of -210, there is a 67.74% chance that the Celtics will secure their first NBA title since 2008 and their 18th championship overall.
What is the start date for the NBA Finals?
Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals kicks off on Thursday, June 6 at 8:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston.
What is the conclusion date for the NBA Finals?
The 2024 NBA Finals are set to continue through Game 4, beginning on Friday, June 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas. If necessary, the series will conclude with Game 7 on Sunday, June 23 at TD Garden in Boston.
Which team was the champion of the NBA Finals last year?
The Denver Nuggets won their first NBA championship in franchise history by defeating the Miami Heat in five games.
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