Alabama vs. UConn Prediction, Final Four Expert Pick & Odds: Can Crimson Tide Upset Favorites?

Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, and Alex Karaban of the UConn Huskies look on against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the Elite 8 round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. We're backing the Huskies defense in our Alabama vs. UConn prediction. — Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, and Alex Karaban of the UConn Huskies look on against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the Elite 8 round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

The UConn Huskies, seeded first, will take on the Alabama Crimson Tide, seeded fourth, in the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament this Saturday. Our expert prediction and pick for the Alabama vs. UConn matchup are based on the top odds for the Final Four.

Following an impressive performance in the previous year’s NCAA Tournament, the UConn Huskies (35-3) have continued to showcase their dominance this season, claiming the top seed and establishing themselves as the frontrunners in the March Madness odds.

They are determined to keep their winning streak alive as they face the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (25-11) in the Final Four showdown on Saturday. The exciting game will start at 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS, broadcasting live from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

According to our top sports betting sites, the Huskies are favored by 11.5 points against Alabama, making them a tough opponent for the Crimson Tide. Although Alabama has earned their first-ever Final Four spot by defeating top-seeded North Carolina and sixth-seeded Clemson, they now face the challenge of keeping up their winning streak against the reigning champions.

Here is our top Alabama vs. UConn prediction and expert pick, in addition to our NC State vs. Purdue prediction and other men’s Final Four expert picks. The odds are provided by our recommended March Madness betting sites, and our pick confidence is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

To learn more about this game, be sure to explore our player props for the Alabama vs. UConn matchup.

Game information for the Alabama vs. UConn matchup: Alabama seeded 4 will face off against UConn seeded 1.

When: Saturday, April 6
Tip-off: 8:49 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
How to watch: TBS
Top choice: UConn -11.5 with odds of -105 from Caesars.

Alabama vs. UConn odds

Alabama vs. UConn prediction

Alabama to score under 74.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Caesars offers the best odds at -105.

Despite the focus on UConn’s high-scoring offense, it is actually their defense that has been the key factor in their successful run through the NCAA Tournament this year. Donovan Clingan, the 7-foot-2 center, has played a significant role in their defensive prowess.

Some argue that Clingan is the top player in the tournament, surpassing even Purdue’s Zach Edey. He is favored to win the March Madness MVP title according to DraftKings, and his dominant performance in the Elite Eight, reminiscent of collegiate Bill Walton, showcased his ability to shut down Illinois’ scoring threat.

Illinois, with the top-ranked offense in adjusted efficiency, only scored 52 points and endured a 30-0 run that sealed their fate in the game. This was another example of UConn’s dominant defense, which has held five consecutive opponents to under 60 points and has only allowed 75 or more points on six occasions all season, and just once in their last 11 games.

Nate Oats’ team excels at pushing the pace, a strategy that is effective against opponents with strong interior defenders like Clingan. However, the Huskies have a strong defense and should be able to control the tempo of Saturday’s game, making it unlikely for the Over bet to hit.

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Analysis of the Alabama vs. UConn spread and Over/Under

UConn has dominated all four tournament games, winning by a margin of at least 17 points each time. The top sportsbooks are predicting a similar outcome for Saturday’s Final Four match against Alabama, with the Huskies favored between -11.5 and -12.

However, the current betting total is fluctuating between 160.5 and 161.5, with BetMGM offering the lower end and FanDuel offering the higher end. Our preference is to bet on the full-game Under, but we suggest focusing on Alabama’s team total and allowing UConn’s offense to perform as it will.

Prediction for Alabama vs. UConn made on Thursday at 4:15 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Morgan Xaviero

Morgan Xaviero is a publishing editor and lead writer for Underscoreg Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, “C-Jax” has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Underscoreg Review team. He’s a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels’ championship run through the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he’s played a key role in Underscoreg Review’s coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he’s cashed some big bets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — he’s still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed “process over results” bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He’s written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn’t forgiven his “inside source” for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.