Colorado State vs. Texas Prediction & March Madness Odds: Can Stevens Rebound After Poor Game?

Chendall Weaver #2 of the Texas Longhorns drives baseline against Will McNair Jr. #13 of the Kansas State Wildcats as we make our best Colorado State vs. Texas March Madness prediction. — Chendall Weaver #2 of the Texas Longhorns drives baseline against Will McNair Jr. #13 of the Kansas State Wildcats during the first half in the second round of the Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament. Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images/AFP

We’re backing you up with our top prediction for the NCAA Tournament opening round matchup between the No. 7 Texas Longhorns and the No. 10 Colorado State Rams, based on the best March Madness odds.

In Tuesday’s First Four matchup, the Colorado State Rams dominated the Virginia Cavaliers, paving the way for a showdown with the Texas Longhorns. The Rams easily secured a 67-42 victory, stifling the Cavaliers’ offense for nearly 14 minutes of play. Virginia’s paltry 14 first-half points marked the lowest-scoring performance by an ACC team in an NCAA Tournament game since 2001.

Colorado State had a strong 4-1 record against Quad 1 and 2 opponents in non-conference play and finished with a 9-9 record against teams in the top two quadrants within the Mountain West Conference.

In the Big 12 regular season, Texas achieved a 9-9 record, adding to their overall 20-12 record under head coach Rodney Terry as they prepare for the NCAA Tournament. Despite facing five losses since February, they managed to avoid back-to-back defeats. Particularly impressive were their recent road victories against NCAA Tournament-bound teams TCU and Texas Tech.

Here is our top prediction and college basketball picks for the Colorado State vs. Texas game as part of our March Madness predictions. Our picks are based on odds from the best March Madness betting sites and confidence levels are rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Odds for the Colorado State vs. Texas game

Prediction for the Midwest Region matchup between Colorado State, ranked No. 10, and Texas, ranked No. 7.

Isaiah Stevens scores more than 14.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The top odds are -120 from bet365.

Isaiah Stevens, the point guard for the Rams, only managed to score five points on five field goal attempts during their decisive victory against Virginia. Despite his recent trend of scoring 14 points or fewer in three of the last four games, it is important for bettors not to overreact to his poor performance on Tuesday. This can be attributed to Virginia’s slow pace of play and the tough defense of Reece Beekman, one of the top on-ball defenders in the nation.

Stevens excels when facing top-tier opponents, having scored 15 or more points in six of his last eight games against NCAA Tournament teams leading up to the First Four. He holds the title of the school’s highest scorer of all time and boasts the seventh-highest assist rate in Division I.

This indicates that he handles the ball frequently, shown by his high ranking in both possession and shot percentage for his team. Stevens has an opportunity to exploit the Longhorns’ weak defense against 3-point shots, while coach Medved’s diverse playbook is likely to confuse the Longhorns.

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The best odds for the Colorado State vs. Texas game are in favor of Texas.

bet365 (-120)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Over 14.5 points	Over 15.5 points	N/A	N/A	Over 14.5 points
-130	-104	N/A	N/A	-120

Bet365 has the best odds at -120 and the most favorable Over line at 14.5, compared to FanDuel’s 15.5. A $10 bet at -120 would result in a payout of $18.33. The implied probability of -120 odds is 54.55%, according to our odds converter.

We particularly appreciate the value of Stevens’ Over because he is the team’s top scorer, averaging 16.2 points per game. However, it is worth noting that Joel Scott has the highest projected total among Rams players at 15.5.

Analysis of the spread and Over/Under for the Colorado State vs. Texas game.

BetMGM initially had Texas favored by 3.5 points, but the spread quickly dropped to 2.5 points, in line with other sports betting sites except BetRivers, which still has Texas favored by 3 points. Texas had a poor record against the spread this season at 12-19-1, while Colorado State has covered the spread in 17 of their 33 games.

None of our top sports betting apps have shifted from their original O/U lines of either 144.5 or 145 since Tuesday night. The Over has hit in 15 out of Texas’s 19 Big 12 games, but only in five of its 13 non-conference games.

Information about the Colorado State versus Texas game

When: Thursday, March 21
Game starts at 6:50 p.m. Eastern Time.
Location: Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.
How to watch: TNT

Prediction for the Colorado State vs. Texas game was made on Thursday at 6:49 a.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Allen Byron

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”