Expert Picks for Men’s Final Four: Top Bets & Props for the 2026 NCAA Tournament Semifinals

Our Final Four expert picks have been compiled based on the leading Final Four odds from the top March Madness betting sites, as the NCAA Tournament’s fifth round gets underway on Saturday.

The NC State Wolfpack (26-14) will kick off the Final Four by taking on the Purdue Boilermakers (33-4) in a semifinal showdown scheduled to begin at 6:09 p.m. ET at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, on Saturday.

After the first game, the Alabama Crimson Tide with a record of 25-11 will face the UConn Huskies, the favorite in the March Madness odds with a record of 35-3. The game is scheduled for 8:49 p.m. ET and will be broadcasted on TBS.

With excitement growing for the upcoming games, our experts are closely analyzing each matchup and sharing their top picks for the semifinals. They are using the most current March Madness odds from our top sports betting sites to reveal their predictions for the Final Four.

Be sure to take a look at our predictions for the NC State vs. Purdue and Alabama vs. UConn matchups.

Expert picks for the Men’s Final Four.

Selections chosen by Morgan Xaviero and Richardson Lilliana; confidence rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

This review is not meant for use in MAAffiliate disclosure: Underscoreg Review may earn advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook.

NC State vs. Purdue

Purdue has coasted through the NCAA Tournament so far, with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points in the first four rounds. In their closest game against No. 2 seed Tennessee, big man Zach Edey was unstoppable, scoring 40 points and grabbing 16 rebounds. Despite facing a tough defense ranked third in adjusted efficiency, Edey, the favorite for the Wooden Award, led Purdue to victory.

It will be extremely difficult for NC State to contain him, as the Wolfpack defense ranks only 44th in adjusted efficiency and has been struggling with fouls. Not only are they undersized against Edey, with no players over 6-foot-10, but they also match up poorly in terms of fouling frequency.

NC State committed the second highest number of fouls in ACC play this season (19.5) and Edey has an incredibly high rate of free throw attempts – leading the NCAA with an average of 11.5 free throws per game. It seems unlikely that NC State, as a No. 11 seed, will be able to make history by reaching the NCAA Tournament final with Purdue as their opponent.

Richardson Lilliana SBR’s Twitter handle is @X.

D.J. Burns has become the standout player of this year’s tournament, and rightfully so. However, the Wolfpack’s beloved hero will face a challenge in keeping up his scoring momentum in Saturday’s semifinals.

At 6-foot-9 and weighing 275 pounds, Burns has used his size advantage to dominate against smaller frontcourts. However, he will face a challenge when matched up against Purdue’s Edey, who towers at 7-foot-4 and 300 pounds and is known for his intimidating defense against other big men.

I have doubts that Burns will be able to avoid getting into foul trouble against Edey and the Boilermakers, who have consistently drawn fouls and earned trips to the free-throw line throughout the tournament. Even if Burns is able to log 25-30 minutes of playing time, I wouldn’t anticipate a standout performance from the NC State center.

Morgan Xaviero SBR’s Twitter handle is @X.

Alabama vs. UConn

The fast-paced style of play demanded by Nate Oats in Alabama games often leads to high-scoring shootouts, primarily fueled by the team’s reliance on the 3-point attack. While both teams tend to rack up points, the Crimson Tide’s offensive firepower typically helps them emerge victorious in the end.

Yet, Alabama has yet to face a team as talented as UConn, or a dominant center like Donovan Clingan. The Huskies’ big man is considered a top contender for March Madness MVP and recently scored 22 points against Illinois in the Elite Eight.

With Clingan leading the way, UConn has the offensive firepower to take advantage of Alabama’s defense and outscore their offense. Alabama struggles defensively inside the arc, allowing an average of 20.3 made 2-pointers per game, which plays right into Clingan’s strengths. It seems unlikely that a team with such a weak defense like Alabama’s could pull off an upset against the Huskies.

— Paul

The Crimson Tide came into the tournament as one of the top offensive teams in the country, and Oats’ squad has stepped up their game in the past two weeks with a fast-paced style of play and a deep roster of talented scorers.

It will be a difficult task to overcome the UConn defense, which is ranked fourth in adjusted efficiency and recently shut down the top offense in the country, Illinois. This was the fourth game in a row where an opponent scored less than 60 points against the Huskies. They have only allowed 75 or more points six times this season and just once in their last 11 games.

Alabama may need to rely on their perimeter shooting to outscore the Fighting Illini, who struggled to score in their last game. While the Crimson Tide should be able to surpass Illinois’ low scoring output, don’t anticipate a high-scoring game on Saturday.

— Cowart

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