Iowa State vs. Houston Prediction, Pick & Odds: Big 12 Tournament Championship

Damian Dunn #11 of the Houston Cougars shoots the ball as we look at the best Iowa State vs. Houston prediction — Damian Dunn #11 of the Houston Cougars shoots the ball against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the first half of a semifinal game of the Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament. Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images via AFP.

We are making our best prediction for the conference tournament championship game between the top two teams in the Big 12, Iowa State and Houston, based on the most favorable college basketball odds.

The Big 12 Tournament is unique in that it features a championship game between the top two teams, and is the only conference with two top-seven AP-ranked teams at the start of the season.

The Iowa State Cyclones and Houston Cougars have won 17 of their last 18 games together, with Houston currently holding the nation’s third-longest active winning streak of 11 games. As a result, the Cougars are in a strong position in the March Madness and Final Four odds leading up to Saturday’s championship.

After splitting their two regular-season matchups, one team will have to break the streak of not losing twice to the same opponent this year.

Here are our top college basketball player props and bets for Saturday’s Iowa State vs. Houston game in the Big 12 Tournament Championship. Our prediction and picks are based on odds from the best March Madness betting sites, with confidence levels rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Make sure to check out our predictions for the NC State vs. North Carolina, Marquette vs. UConn, and Oregon vs. Colorado games happening this Saturday.

Prediction for the Big 12 Tournament Championship game: Iowa State vs. Houston

Keshon Gilbert is predicted to have less than 3.5 assists with a three-star rating.

DraftKings offers the best odds at +105.

Iowa State and Houston exhibit similar defensive strategies, both ranking in the top five in near-shot proximity allowed according to Haslametrics. Additionally, they excel at defending ball screens on the perimeter and focus on pressuring opponents’ primary ball handlers to give up the ball.

Keshon Gilbert, the point guard for Iowa State, is ranked 11th in the Big 12 for percentage of possessions and 15th in assist rate at 23.5%. As he handles the ball the most for the Cyclones, he is likely to face tough defense from Houston’s Jamal Shead. Shead is the top-ranked player in the country by a large margin in EvanMiya’s DBPR.

Gilbert recorded four or more assists in both regular-season games against Houston, but we find the value in betting on him to have three or fewer assists in Saturday’s tournament final. The Cougars have been playing strong defense, only allowing a total of 15 assists in their two tournament games.

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The best odds for the Iowa State vs. Houston game are in favor of Iowa State.

DraftKings (+105)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Gilbert Under 3.5 assists	N/A	N/A	N/A	Gilbert Under 3.5 assists
+105	N/A	N/A	N/A	+100

Currently, player props for this matchup are only available from DraftKings and bet365. DraftKings is offering the best odds for Under bettors, with a $10 wager at +105 odds paying out $20.50, compared to bet365’s $20 payout for the same wager.

Another Iowa State guard, Tamin Lipsey, has an over/under of 3.5 assists. Lipsey averages 4.8 assists per game, while Gilbert averages 4.3. Therefore, based on season-long data, Gilbert appears to be the better choice to have three or fewer assists.

Iowa State vs. Houston betting lines

Analysis of the odds for the Iowa State versus Houston game

Out of our top sports betting sites, only FanDuel has Houston as a 4.5-point favorite, while the rest have them at -5. DraftKings is the sole platform showing line movement, with the line dropping half a point from the opening number of 5.5 within 10 minutes of its release.

Houston has a strong record of 5-1-1 against the spread when facing ranked opponents this season, while Iowa State has covered the spread in 68.8% of their games, with a record of 22-10-1 against the spread for the season.

The range for totals in the best sports betting apps is fairly narrow, with most offering over/unders of 121. However, BetRivers stands out as having a higher total of 122. FanDuel has decreased its total by a full point from the opening number of 122.5 to 121.5, while DraftKings initially increased from 122.5 to 123 before dropping to 121.

This indicates that there was significant betting activity, particularly early on Saturday morning, on the Under in this game.

Information about the Iowa State vs. Houston game

On Saturday, March 16th
Tip-off: 6 p.m. ET
Location: T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.
How to watch: ESPN

The prediction for the Iowa State-Houston game was made on Saturday at 6:43 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Allen Byron

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”