Predictions for March Madness Upsets & Picks 2024: Support Creighton and Clemson as Underdogs in the Sweet 16
Following a wild first round of March Madness, the second round of the NCAA Tournament saw a decrease in upsets. As we anticipate the upcoming games this weekend, we are making our top March Madness upset predictions based on the current March Madness odds from our top March Madness betting sites.
The initial games of the 2024 NCAA Tournament brought numerous unexpected victories, causing our March Madness bracket predictions to appear foolish after only two days. Fortunately, we managed to earn some profit by supporting underdogs on the moneyline during the first round.
The favorites had their vengeance in the second round, triumphing in 15 out of 16 games outright for the second-highest Round of 32 performance since the tournament grew to 64 teams in 1985. The only upset came from Clemson, who were considered underdogs at +165 odds before the weekend.
Can we expect more madness in the second weekend of March Madness? Check out our top upset picks for the Sweet 16 and key factors to consider when predicting the biggest surprises of the 2024 tournament.
Sweet 16 underdog odds for 2024 March Madness upsets.
| Underdog | Best odds | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Clemson (6) vs. Arizona (2) | +260 via BetMGM | TBD |
| San Diego State (5) vs. UConn (1) | +500 via BetMGM | TBD |
| Alabama (4) vs. North Carolina (1) | +165 via BetMGM | TBD |
| Illinois (3) vs. Iowa State (2) | +110 via BetMGM | TBD |
| NC State (11) vs. Marquette (2) | +235 via bet365 | TBD |
| Gonzaga (5) vs. Purdue (1) | +188 via FanDuel | TBD |
| Duke (4) vs. Houston (1) | +160 via DraftKings | TBD |
| Creighton (3) vs. Tennessee (2) | +140 via Caesars | TBD |
Our top picks for the most exciting upsets in the Sweet 16 of the 2024 March Madness tournament.
Arizona (2) will face off against Clemson (6).
Top odds available at BetMGM are +260.
Last week, we took advantage of Clemson’s underdog victory in the Round of 32. I believe the Tigers have a good chance of pulling off another upset in the NCAA Tournament, making it 3 wins in a row.
Arizona’s offense struggled at times during their victory over Dayton, but Caleb Love and Pelle Larsson came through with crucial points in the second round to secure the win. This has been a rare occurrence this season, leading to unexpected losses in Pac-12 games for the Wildcats.
Clemson’s combination of size in the paint and versatile players on the perimeter may pose a challenge for Arizona in their upcoming game on Thursday. With a top-25 offense that has consistently scored over 1.08 points per possession in every win so far, the Tigers have a good chance of upsetting Arizona in the Sweet 16.
Purdue (1) will face off against Gonzaga (5)
Top odds: +188 on FanDuel
Is it possible for any team to prevent Purdue and their standout player Zach Edey from dominating? While they are the current favorite for the March Madness MVP, I believe Gonzaga has a good chance of challenging them this weekend.
The Bulldogs stand out in this tournament for their strong offensive capabilities that can match Purdue’s. They are ranked seventh in scoring efficiency and have four players who consistently score in double digits. Additionally, three of their starters are 6-foot-8 or taller, and they have a freshman super-sub, Braden Huff, who stands at 6-foot-10 and 242 pounds.
On November 20th, the Zags were leading by five points at halftime against the Boilermakers before Edey dominated in the second half. If they are able to contain the 7-4 big player this time, the Boilermakers may be at risk of an upset.
Creighton is facing off against Tennessee, with Creighton seeded 3 and Tennessee seeded 2.
Top odds: +140 from Caesars
I originally had Creighton making it to the Final Four in my bracket, and I still believe that they have the potential to be a championship team. However, I am not as confident in Tennessee’s ability to make a deep tournament run.
The Volunteers managed to “survive and advance” by doing what was necessary, but their offense, which was already a concern heading into the tournament, only scored 0.87 points per possession in their second-round victory over Texas. This marks the lowest scoring output in a win for Tennessee this season.
I anticipate a tough matchup against a talented Creighton team, led by elite shot-blocker Ryan Kalkbrenner and a skilled group of perimeter players. I believe the Bluejays will come out on top in this game, making the +140 odds a nice bonus.
Predictions for upsets in Round 2 of the 2024 March Madness tournament
Round 2 of the 2024 March Madness brings us our top upsets.
James Madison (12) clashes with Duke (4) ❌
Top odds: +260 at BetMGM
James Madison was the underdog we were rooting for in the first round, and the 12th-seeded Dukes came through with a convincing 72-61 victory over No. 5 Wisconsin that was even more lopsided than the score indicates.
They are now focused on facing Duke, which appeared lackluster in their victory against Vermont on Friday. Despite star center Kyle Filipowski only scoring three points, the Blue Devils relied on their talented group of former top recruits to dominate the Catamounts in a 64-47 win.
This James Madison team, with the nation’s longest active win streak (14) and a top-tier perimeter defense, will be a tough challenge for Duke. The Blue Devils will need to showcase their dominance in the paint against this formidable opponent. While Duke has the talent to compete, it wouldn’t be shocking if James Madison outplays them and proves to be the superior team once again.
— Selected by Morgan Xaviero
Clemson (6) will face off against Baylor (3) in the upcoming matchup.
Top odds: +165 at BetMGM
Clemson was expected to be upset by New Mexico in the first round, but they proved the doubters wrong with a dominant 21-point victory. Despite their impressive performance, they are once again being underestimated as they head into the second round.
Ever since Jack Clark (6-10), the versatile big man, rejoined the starting lineup on Feb. 6, the team has undergone a transformation, now ranking 20th in adjusted net efficiency thanks to their switchable defense causing problems for opponents. Clemson’s offense has also seen a rejuvenation, with skilled shooters complementing star big man PJ Hall (18.7 PPG).
Baylor put on a strong performance in the opening round, easily defeating Colgate to move on to the next round. However, the Bears have only slightly outperformed Clemson in the past six weeks and will be missing guard Langston Love, who is the team’s fourth-leading scorer (11 PPG) and top 3-point shooter (48%), in their upcoming game on Sunday.
Selected by Morgan Xaviero
NC State defeats Oakland with a score of 11-14.
Top odds: +225 at BetMGM
Can we be certain that NC State is the superior team in this game? While the Wolfpack come from a larger conference with more well-known players, Oakland proved to be a formidable opponent in the first round against Kentucky.
In our expert analysis of the Oakland vs. NC State game, we highlighted the fact that the Golden Grizzlies have made at least eight three-point shots in 11 of their last 14 games, including a remarkable 15 in their recent upset victory. Additionally, standout player Jack Gohlke has made a total of 22 three-pointers in the last three games, solidifying his status as a tournament hero.
NC State has a weak perimeter defense and struggles with 3-point shooting, making them vulnerable if the game becomes a high-scoring affair. I predict they may fall victim to an upset in the second round of the tournament.
— Selected by Morgan Xaviero
Predictions for upsets in Round 1 of the 2024 March Madness tournament.
Some of the best upsets from Round 1 of the 2024 March Madness tournament.
James Madison (12) defeated Wisconsin (5) ✅
Bet365 offers the best odds at +195.
No. 12 seeds have a history of causing upsets against No. 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, and James Madison is looking to carry on that tradition. The Dukes have one of the top offenses in the mid-major level, ranking 10th in the nation in points per game with 84.4. They have experience in defeating higher-ranked teams, as shown by their road victory over No. 4 Michigan State earlier in the season.
With Terrence Edwards leading the team with 17.4 points per game, the Dukes have the ability to play at a fast pace against a struggling Wisconsin team. The Badgers’ defense is suspect, making this matchup a challenging one. For those looking to bet on the Dukes, the best odds can be found at bet365 and BetMGM, where a $10 bet could result in a $19.50 profit.
Written by Richardson Lilliana, the pick was shared on Twitter.
NC State (11) will play against Texas Tech (6) in the upcoming match.✅
The highest odds are +180 on DraftKings.
NC State is the ultimate Cinderella team entering the NCAA Tournament’s first round. They seemed unlikely to make it to March Madness until they triumphed in the ACC Tournament, winning five games in five days to secure their bid. With standout performances from DJ Horne and DJ Burns, the Wolfpack is now considered one of the top teams in the nation.
The Texas Tech program has shown inconsistency with a mixture of big wins and eight losses in their last 17 games. They now face a challenging opponent that even No. 1 seed North Carolina struggled against. The Wolfpack’s moneyline is currently at +162 at FanDuel, suggesting a 35.71% chance of NC State winning. However, DraftKings offers better value with their +180 line.
Selected by Richardson Lilliana (X/Twitter)
San Diego State (5) defeats UAB (12) 🏀
Top odds: +240 on FanDuel
San Diego State surprised everyone by making it to the NCAA Tournament final as a No. 5 seed last year. However, this season, the team has struggled with a 10-8 record in its last 18 games. They now face a tough challenge in UAB, a team known for their offensive depth and strong presence in the paint with big man Yaxel Lendeborg. The Blazers average 77.8 points per game and will be a formidable opponent for San Diego State.
Eric Gaines (5.5 assists per game) and Alejandro Vasquez (39% 3-point percentage) are guarding him. This trio could pose a challenge for the Aztecs, who heavily rely on Jaedon Ledee for scoring. If the Blazers can pull off an upset against San Diego State, the +240 odds would result in a $24 payout on a $10 bet, adding to the legacy of 12 vs. 5 seed upsets.
— Selected by Richardson Lilliana (X/Twitter)
What constitutes a March Madness upset?
A March Madness upset happens when a team with a lower seed or considered the underdog defeats a higher-seeded or favored opponent in the NCAA Tournament.
March Madness is known for its upsets, which bring unpredictability and excitement to the tournament as underdog teams demonstrate their competitive skill by defeating higher-ranked opponents. These surprising victories captivate fans and attract widespread attention, showcasing the tournament’s inherent unpredictability.
Surprises can happen at any point in the tournament, whether it’s the beginning or the end, and are a key element of the March Madness tradition.
What defines a March Madness underdog?
March Madness underdogs are usually lower-seeded or less favored teams in the NCAA Tournament. These teams are often ranked lower than their competitors and are not expected to win based on tournament predictions and seeding brackets.
In the early rounds of March Madness, underdog teams frequently go up against higher-seeded opponents and are viewed as potential challengers to upset the favorites. Upsets by these underdogs are a regular occurrence in the tournament and are lauded as exciting moments that showcase the competitive nature and unpredictability of March Madness.
Placing bets on underdogs typically means getting odds of +100 or higher, which could result in a $100 bet yielding a profit of $100 or more if the underdog wins.
The history of upsets between the 12th and 5th seeds in March Madness
One of the most popular March Madness upset predictions is the 12 vs. 5 first-round matchup, with many fans hoping to pick at least one of these upsets in their bracket predictions each year.
Since the NCAA Tournament format expanded in 1985, a 12-seed has caused an upset against a 5-seed 53 times. In these 5-12 matchups, the higher seed has a 99-53 head-to-head record (65.1%), which is lower than expected based on the matchup rankings.
Out of the last 38 years, there have been 6 instances where a 12-seed upset a 5-seed, with the most recent occurrence happening in 2023. The upsets occurred in the 2019, 2014, and 2013 tournaments, and two 12-seeds advanced in the first round of the current tournament before being eliminated in the second round.
Latest 12 vs. 5 shockers
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | James Madison def. Wisconsin | 72-61 |
| 2024 | Grand Canyon def. Saint Mary’s | 75-66 |
| 2022 | New Mexico def. UConn | 70-63 |
| 2022 | Richmond def. Iowa | 67-63 |
| 2021 | Oregon State def. Tennessee | 70-56 |
| 2019 | Oregon def. Wisconsin | 72-54 |
| 2019 | Murray State def. Marquette | 83-64 |
| 2019 | Liberty def. Mississippi State | 80-76 |
| 2017 | Middle Tennessee def. Minnesota | 81-72 |
| 2016 | Yale def. Baylor | 79-75 |
| 2016 | Little Rock def. Purdue | 85-83 (2OT) |
| 2014 | Stephen F. Austin def. VCU | 77-75 (OT) |
| 2014 | North Dakota State def. Oklahoma | 80-75 (OT) |
| 2014 | Harvard def. Cincinnati | 61-57 |
| 2013 | Oregon def. Oklahoma State | 68-55 |
| 2013 | California def. UNLV | 64-61 |
| 2013 | Ole Miss def. Wisconsin | 57-46 |
| 2012 | VCU def. Wichita State | 62-59 |
| 2012 | South Florida def. Temple | 58-44 |
| 2011 | Richmond def. Vanderbilt | 69-66 |
| 2010 | Cornell def. Temple | 78-65 |
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