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Expert pick and prediction for Round 2 of the Michigan State vs. UNC game

Morgan Xaviero

Updated on March 23, 2024 at 4:47 PM EDT. Read time: 2 minutes and 52 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Head coach Tom Izzo of the Michigan State Spartans reacts as we make our Michigan State vs. UNC expert pick and prediction for the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday.
Head coach Tom Izzo of the Michigan State Spartans reacts against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the second half in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Spectrum Center on March 21, 2024 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images via AFP.

The first-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels will be taking on the ninth-ranked Michigan State Spartans in the second round of the West Region on Saturday. We will be providing our expert pick and prediction for the Michigan State vs. UNC matchup based on the latest March Madness odds.

The North Carolina Tar Heels, ranked No. 1 with a record of 28-7, will face off against the No. 9 seed Michigan State Spartans, with a record of 20-14, in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 15 years. The last time these teams met was in the 2009 title game. Tom Izzo and his team will be seeking revenge in the second-round matchup scheduled for Saturday at 5:30 p.m. ET on CBS, taking place at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte.

The Tar Heels have a perfect 5-0 record against the Spartans in the Big Dance, with a memorable victory in the 2009 national title game. They are currently the favored team on all of our top sports betting sites heading into Saturday’s matchup. However, Michigan State has gained the respect of oddsmakers with an impressive win over Mississippi State in the previous round.

Here is our top expert pick for the Michigan State vs. UNC matchup in March Madness, based on odds from our recommended betting sites. Our confidence in this pick is rated on a scale from 1 to 5 stars.

Odds for the Michigan State vs. UNC game

Expert pick: UNC (1) favored over Michigan State (9) in the West Region.

Michigan State +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Odds: -105 via Betway

Initially, it may appear that UNC is favored by too small of a margin, as they are the only team favored by less than four points on Saturday. However, the high confidence in Michigan State by the betting market can be attributed to their superior coach and potentially more skilled roster as they prepare to face off in the second round.

The Spartans started the season ranked No. 4 in the AP Poll, boasting a top-five recruiting class to support their experienced senior-heavy roster. However, they struggled early on, losing five of their first nine games. Their struggles continued as they dropped five of their last seven games of the season.

Unfortunately for the No. 8 seed Mississippi State, they were paired with a highly talented Michigan State team in the first round, resulting in a blowout loss. Despite being ranked lower as the No. 9 seed, the Spartans displayed superior skill and are showing signs of peaking in March, a common occurrence for a team coached by Izzo.

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Despite their 28-point margin of victory over Wagner in the first round of the tournament, North Carolina did not perform as strongly as expected. This lackluster performance is concerning for a team that struggled against NC State in the ACC Tournament final and has consistently played below their potential throughout the season.

KenPom is predicting a 72-69 victory for the Tar Heels, but the market is still holding a 3.5-point spread. This indicates potential value on the underdog Spartans, who have shown they can be a strong team despite their season-long performance.

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Analysis of the spread and over/under for the Michigan State vs. UNC game.

North Carolina was favored by 3.5 points against Michigan State after both teams had dominant wins in the first round. Despite the difference in seeding, the Spartans shouldn’t be underestimated, as they have a talented roster and a top-tier coach for March Madness.

The total has been set at 140.5 for this game, making it the second-lowest on the board for Saturday’s second-round action. This is because both teams have strong defenses but struggle offensively.

Information on the Michigan State vs. UNC game

  • When: Saturday, March 23
  • Tip-off: 5:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.
  • How to watch: CBS

Prediction for the Michigan State vs. UNC game was made on Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Morgan Xaviero
Morgan Xaviero is a publishing editor and lead writer for Underscoreg Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, “C-Jax” has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Underscoreg Review team. He’s a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels’ championship run through the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he’s played a key role in Underscoreg Review’s coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he’s cashed some big bets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — he’s still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed “process over results” bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He’s written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn’t forgiven his “inside source” for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.