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Prediction and Player Props for NC State vs. Purdue: Edey and Burns set to clash in Final Four

Morgan Xaviero

Updated as of April 6, 2024 at 5:14 PM EDT • Read time: 3 minutes and 41 seconds. Check out the latest on Twitter and Google News.

DJ Burns Jr. #30 of the North Carolina State Wolfpack reacts as we offer our best NC State vs. Purdue player props for the Final Four on Saturday.
DJ Burns Jr. #30 of the North Carolina State Wolfpack reacts during the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament against the Marquette Golden Eagles at American Airlines Center on March 29, 2024 in Dallas, Texas. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images via AFP.

In the Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament, DJ Burns and the NC State Wolfpack will go head-to-head against Zach Edey and the Purdue Boilermakers this Saturday. We present our top player props for the NC State vs. Purdue matchup based on the latest Final Four odds.

March Madness took an unexpected turn when the No. 11 seed NC State Wolfpack (26-14) advanced to the Final Four, thanks to DJ Burns’ impressive play. They are now gearing up for an exciting matchup against Zach Edey and the top-seeded Purdue Boilermakers (33-4) in the second semifinal game on Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET. The game will be televised on TBS from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

Purdue was the clear favorite heading into the matchup, with a 9-point advantage over NC State on our best sports betting sites. However, the Wolfpack, considered underdogs, have surprised everyone by winning four consecutive games and achieving their deepest tournament run since their championship win in 1983.

The Boilermakers are focused on advancing in March Madness and are determined to secure their first Final Four victory since 1980 to keep their dreams alive.

Here are our top player prop bets for the NC State vs. Purdue game, in addition to our prediction and other expert picks for the men’s Final Four. Odds are from our recommended March Madness betting sites, with pick confidence rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Player props for the NC State vs. Purdue game.

DJ fails to reach 14.5 points with a rating of four stars.

Top odds: -110 from BetMGM

I chose this bet as my top pick in our Final Four expert selections, and the odds have shifted slightly towards the Under since then. Despite this movement, I still believe it is a strong play at -110 odds, which are significantly different from the rest of the market as we approach Saturday’s game.

As previously mentioned, Burns has utilized his size advantage to dominate opponents in the low post. However, he will face a significant challenge against Edey (7-4, 300 lbs) in the paint on Saturday. Additionally, Burns is at a higher risk of getting into foul trouble against the Boilermakers, which has been a recurring issue for the Wolfpack center.

Also, keep in mind that Burns has only scored 15 points in five of his last six games, compared to just two in his previous seven games and 15 out of 40 games this season. With his most challenging matchup of the season coming up, I believe the Under is the best bet.

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Zach Edey is projected to have over 41.5 points + rebounds with a four-star rating.

FanDuel offers the best odds at -106.

I am taking inspiration for this bet from my respected colleague in college basketball analysis, Richardson Lilliana. In his preview of this game, he explained why this bet is a strong choice. I suggest reading his analysis for a more in-depth understanding.

However, it is evident without the need for a peer-reviewed thesis that there is significant value in the statistics of Edey, who has averaged 30 points and 16.3 rebounds in this year’s NCAA Tournament. This impressive performance includes dropping 40 points and grabbing 16 boards in the Elite Eight, facing a Tennessee defense that remains ranked third in adjusted efficiency even after their defeat.

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In the meantime, NC State’s defense is ranked 44th and has had difficulties defending the paint, rebounding, and limiting opponents’ free throw attempts. These vulnerabilities could prove costly against Edey, who is poised for a dominant performance this Saturday.

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Zach Edey is set to be the top scorer ⭐⭐⭐

FanDuel offers the best odds at -210.

I am not as confident in this play as I am with the other two, but considering Edey is favored at -275 to lead all scorers at DraftKings, I am comfortable with this price.

As mentioned earlier, Edey has been dominating in this tournament, scoring an average of 30 points on an impressive 65.6% shooting from 16 attempts per game. It comes as no surprise that he has been the top scorer in all four of Purdue’s March Madness games, and he is the clear favorite to continue this trend for a good reason.

The primary concern is Burns and NC State guard DJ Horne, but I anticipate that both will struggle to score against Edey’s defense in the paint. The implied probability of this bet is 67.7%, which seems too low given the circumstances.

Information about the game between NC State, ranked 11th, and Purdue, ranked 1st.

  • When: Saturday, April 6
  • Tip-off: 6:09 p.m. ET
  • Location: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
  • How to watch: TBS
  • Top Pick: Purdue -9 with odds of -110 on DraftKings

Odds for the NC State vs. Purdue matchup

Player props for the NC State-Purdue game were established on Friday at 3:15 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Morgan Xaviero
Morgan Xaviero is a publishing editor and lead writer for Underscoreg Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, “C-Jax” has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Underscoreg Review team. He’s a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels’ championship run through the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he’s played a key role in Underscoreg Review’s coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he’s cashed some big bets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — he’s still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed “process over results” bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He’s written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn’t forgiven his “inside source” for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.