NFL Player Props & Best Bets Week 18: Will Bills Win AFC East?

As the regular season wraps up with a full slate of divisional games, the NFL playoff matchups will soon be revealed. Check out our top NFL player props and betting picks for Week 18 with the latest odds from top sports betting apps.

The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have secured the No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC, but there is still uncertainty heading into Week 18 as four divisions are still up for grabs.

The AFC playoff picture is so unpredictable that the Buffalo Bills could secure the No. 2 seed by defeating the Miami Dolphins, but they could also miss out on the playoffs entirely if they lose and both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars win.

Along with our predictions for NFL Week 18 and player props, we also provide NFL player props, best bets, and picks for Week 18. Our odds are sourced from the best NFL betting sites, and our confidence in each pick is rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Top NFL Picks: Week 18

A.J. Brown to score a touchdown at any time against the Giants is priced at +110 on bet365. This bet is rated three stars.
Buffalo Bills are favored by 1.5 points in the first half against the Miami Dolphins, with odds of +100 from FanDuel. This bet is rated as four stars.
Falcons are underdogs by 3.5 points against the Saints with odds of -118 on DraftKings. This matchup is rated 4 stars.
Bet on C.J. Stroud to score more than 1.5 passing touchdowns against the Colts at +102 odds from FanDuel. This bet has a four-star rating and is a winner.

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The NFL Week 18 schedule and betting odds are now available.

(Odds via DraftKings)

The Baltimore Ravens will face a 3.5-point deficit against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans (-1.5)
Cincinnati Bengals are favored by seven points against the Cleveland Browns.
The Detroit Lions are favored by 3.5 points in their matchup against the Minnesota Vikings.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are favored by 5 points against the Tennessee Titans.
The New York Jets are playing against the New England Patriots, with the Patriots being favored by 2 points.
The New Orleans Saints are favored by 3.5 points in their matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored by 4.5 points against the Carolina Panthers.
The Green Bay Packers are favored by three points against the Chicago Bears.
The Las Vegas Raiders are favored by 3 points in their matchup against the Denver Broncos.
The Philadelphia Eagles are favored by 5 points against the New York Giants.
Seattle Seahawks are favored by 2.5 points against the Arizona Cardinals.
The Los Angeles Chargers are favored by 3.5 points over the Kansas City Chiefs.
The San Francisco 49ers are favored by 4 points against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Dallas Cowboys are favored by 13 points over the Washington Commanders.
Buffalo Bills are favored to win by 3 points against the Miami Dolphins.

Week 18 NFL player props are available for wagering.

A.J. Brown is a solid bet to score a touchdown against the Giants, with odds of +110 on bet365. This pick earns a three-star rating.

This week, there were reports that Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown refuted claims of being upset with head coach Nick Sirianni. Regardless of Brown’s emotions, it would be wise for the Eagles to keep their supposed unhappy star receiver content before the playoffs. We anticipate that Jalen Hurts will prioritize getting Brown the ball, especially with DeVonta Smith nursing a minor ankle injury.

Brown has struggled recently with only 189 receiving yards and zero touchdowns in the last three games. However, earlier in the season, when Hurts targeted him outside the numbers, he had impressive stats with a 61% completion rate, 10.5 yards per attempt, and a 6-2 touchdown-interception ratio. Unfortunately, his numbers have declined in recent weeks to a 41% completion rate, 5.4 yards per attempt, and a 0-1 touchdown-interception ratio. Despite this, Brown has a chance to bounce back against the New York Giants defense, which has struggled against perimeter wide receivers since Week 12.

At the moment, only bet365 is providing anytime touchdown odds for Brown among our top sports betting apps. This is likely due to uncertainty surrounding Smith’s availability. If you prefer to wait closer to kickoff, make sure to shop around for the best odds at different betting shops.

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C.J. Stroud is projected to score over 1.5 passing touchdowns against the Colts, with odds of +102 through FanDuel. This bet is rated four stars and is a recommended pick.

C.J. Stroud, quarterback for the Houston Texans, has thrown for the fifth-highest yardage total ever by a rookie with 3,844 yards. Despite a subpar performance in his first game back from a concussion last week, we anticipate him to excel in this crucial game against the Indianapolis Colts, where a win secures a playoff spot.

In just his second NFL start in Week 2 against the Colts, Stroud impressed by throwing for 384 yards and two touchdowns. He currently boasts the second-highest QBR (72) when facing zone coverage this season and averages the fourth-most yards per dropback (7.5) in the league. This is particularly important against the Colts, who utilize zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (69%), according to ESPN Analytics.When it comes to success in the red zone, Stroud stands out for his ability to hold onto the ball longer than most, with an average of 3.32 seconds per throw in the red zone. This is significantly higher than the league average of 2.75 seconds, indicating the strong protection he receives from his offensive line.

We rely on FanDuel for this bet because it’s the only sportsbook that offers plus-money odds, while bet365 has the Over juiced as high as -115.

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Predictions for NFL games in Week 18

The Bills are favored by 1.5 points in the first half against the Dolphins, with odds at +100 through FanDuel. This game has a four-star rating.

The Bills have been playing must-win games to stay in playoff contention for the past month, and their sense of urgency is evident in their strong starts, winning the first half in each of their last six games. With plus-money odds available at FanDuel (though the line is as high as -115 at BetRivers), it’s a good value to bet on Buffalo to cover a 1.5 point spread in the first half. We would only consider betting on the favorite for the full game if the spread moves off the key number of three.

Josh Allen will be going up against a Dolphins defense missing their top pass rusher Bradley Chubb, who is out with a torn ACL. This season, Allen has had his second-lowest completion percentage and passing yards total.

The impact of Chubb on Miami’s defense this season is significant. When he is on the field for 81% of plays, the Dolphins have allowed a 44 Total QBR and pressured quarterbacks on 38% of dropbacks, leading all NFL teams in 2026. However, when Chubb is off the field for 19% of plays, Miami’s defense has allowed a 79 Total QBR and pressured quarterbacks on just 28% of dropbacks. Allen has had success against the Dolphins in the past, averaging 341 passing yards per game with a 10-0 TD-INT ratio in the last three games. Additionally, he ranks 10th with a 73 QBR when not pressured this season, indicating he is likely to lead Buffalo to offensive success, especially early in the game.

Falcons are underdogs by 3.5 points against the Saints with a -118 odds on DraftKings. This game is rated 4 stars.

We thrive on taking advantage of the public’s exaggerated reactions to recent events, and there’s no better opportunity than this NFC South matchup. The Falcons are coming off a tough loss to the Bears, while the Saints are keeping their playoff hopes alive with a win over the Buccaneers. Both teams are highly motivated, as the winner of this game will need Tampa Bay to lose in order to win the division. Despite Atlanta being a long shot to win the NFC South, we anticipate a close game against New Orleans.

The Saints have a 9-3 record against the Falcons, but one of those losses came in Week 12 (24-15 in Atlanta). Last year, the Saints’ two wins were by a total of four points. Despite New Orleans’ overall record against Atlanta, the Falcons have a 4-1 record against the spread in the last five meetings. The Saints have struggled in rush defense since Week 12, ranking in the bottom five, which could be advantageous for the Falcons’ strong running game. Additionally, New Orleans ranks in the bottom seven in yards after contact per attempt and missed tackles per attempt during that same time period.

There are multiple ways for Falcons supporters to approach this game. One option is to take the +3 line at +100 odds with Caesars or bet365. Alternatively, one could choose to back Atlanta at +4 with -135 odds at BetMGM. However, we have decided to go with the +3.5 line at -118 odds with DraftKings. This option provides a good balance by not being too costly while still offering the security of getting more than a field goal.

The best NFL bets were placed on Thursday at 4:07 p.m. ET.

Explore our top NFL betting websites:

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Written By:
Allen Byron

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”