Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 18: Sunday Night Football

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills exits the tunnel before the game against the Miami Dolphins, and we offer our best Bills vs. Dolphins prediction for Sunday Night Football. — Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills exits the tunnel before the game against the Miami Dolphins. Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images via AFP.

In Week 18 of the 2026 NFL regular season, the Buffalo Bills will face off against the Miami Dolphins in a Sunday Night Football showdown with the AFC East crown on the line. Our prediction for this highly anticipated game is that the Bills, favored on the road, will come out strong and deliver a standout performance.

Only a month ago, the Buffalo Bills appeared to be on track for a disappointing season in 2026. However, a remarkable winning streak has now positioned them as top contenders for the Super Bowl.

Buffalo, with a record of 10-6, is set to face off against the Miami Dolphins who have a record of 11-5 in a crucial AFC East matchup. Buffalo is currently favored by 3 points in this winner-takes-all showdown on Sunday Night Football.

After beginning December with a .500 record and facing a challenging NFL schedule, the Bills were not expected to secure the AFC East championship. However, with four straight wins under their belt, they find themselves in a promising position. This advantage is further highlighted by the Dolphins’ recent slump as they head into a crucial Week 18 showdown.

Alongside the player props for Bills vs. Dolphins, including Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill, we present our top prediction for Sunday Night Football between the two teams (odds sourced from our top NFL betting sites; confidence level rated on a 1-5 star scale).

Prediction for the Bills vs. Dolphins game on Sunday Night Football.

The Bills are favored by 3 points with odds of -108 on FanDuel, receiving a rating of 4 stars.

This line seems to be biased towards the Bills, who have been receiving a lot of attention from NFL analysts and bettors, while overlooking the underdog Miami. Despite having a better record and just as much at stake in Sunday’s AFC East title game, Miami is only getting a field goal at home.

This Dolphins team is not the same as the one that beat the Denver Broncos by 50 points in September. Depending on the players available on Sunday, the 3-point line may not be sufficient.

Tyreek Hill, who has been the driving force behind Miami’s high-scoring offense, seemed to worsen his high ankle sprain in Week 17 and is uncertain for the upcoming game. Since the injury, he has only gained 236 yards and scored no touchdowns in three games, a significant drop from his performance of 1,496 yards and 12 touchdowns in the previous twelve games.

Jaylen Waddle, known for his speed, will be out on Sunday due to an ankle injury. Raheem Mostert, the top rusher with 21 touchdowns, also won’t be playing because of knee and ankle issues. Additionally, De’Von Achane, another dynamic runner, was limited in practice along with nine other players.

Furthermore, the Dolphins’ defense has been severely impacted by injuries recently. Key players such as star pass rusher Bradley Chubb (ACL) and cornerback Xavien Howard (foot) were both sidelined during a critical Week 17 game against the Baltimore Ravens, which had significant implications for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Additionally, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a shoulder injury but is expected to play on Sunday, unlike Chubb and Howard who will not be available.

There is no need to speculate on the impact of injuries on the Dolphins, as the effects have been evident on the field. The team squandered a 14-point lead in just three minutes during Week 14, marking the start of their significant injury troubles. Additionally, Miami’s 37-point defeat in Week 17 was the worst of the season and ranked as the seventh-worst in franchise history.

The Bills have not maintained their previous level of performance in the past month, which is why they are considered heavy favorites in their upcoming games.

Buffalo has achieved a perfect 4-0 record in December following their Week 13 bye, boasting the sixth-highest scoring differential at plus-32. This success is consistent with their high rankings in various metrics, such as third in weighted DVOA, total DVOA, and net EPA/play, as well as fourth in season-long scoring margin at plus-133.

Recently, the Bills have stood out with their aggressive strategy of dominating teams with a revitalized running game and a defense that creates opportunities. Although they may require a stronger performance from Josh Allen against Miami, he will be going up against a defense missing its top two pass-rushers. Allen has already proven his ability to excel against this defense, throwing for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-20 victory in Week 4.

Since Sean McDermott became head coach in 2017, Buffalo has dominated Miami, winning 12 out of 14 games. This includes three consecutive victories against Mike McDaniel, all of which were by at least three points. The most recent win by Buffalo, which was a 28-point margin, was the largest defeat suffered by Miami under McDaniel’s leadership before Week 17.

The teams playing now are different from the ones that played in Week 4, which is why the Bills are still favored to win by a field goal, even though they are playing on the road. Perhaps the odds aren’t as lopsided as they seem.

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FanDuel is offering a special boost for the Bills vs. Dolphins game.

FanDuel is increasing the odds for Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to each surpass 200 passing yards, as well as for James Cook to achieve at least 40 rushing yards, during Sunday Night Football, from -120 to +150!

This offer is valid in all legal U.S. sports betting regions where FanDuel is available.

Best odds for Bills vs. Dolphins

FanDuel (-108)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Bills -3	Bills -3	Bills -3	Bills -3	Bills -3
-110	-108	-110	-110	-110

This line is quite sharp, as most top sports betting sites have the Bills as 3-point favorites at -110 odds. The only site offering slightly better odds is FanDuel at -108, so we suggest placing your bet there.

Since the wager is priced similarly at our top sportsbooks, I suggest looking into our promotions to find out which one is offering a bonus bet for Sunday Night Football.

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The betting odds for the Bills versus Dolphins game on Sunday Night Football.

Analysis of odds for Bills vs. Dolphins

The Bills initially opened at -1.5, but the line quickly moved to -3 on all of our top sports betting apps. The apps are all in agreement as we head towards Sunday’s crucial regular-season finale to determine the AFC East champion.

When the game was first offered before Week 17, Buffalo was getting 1.5 points due to the Dolphins’ numerous injury issues and lackluster performances towards the end of the season.

Information about the Sunday Night Football game

The event will take place on Sunday, January 7th at 8:20 p.m. Eastern Time.
Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL
How to watch: NBC
Current weather conditions include a temperature of 68 degrees with a 35% chance of precipitation and winds blowing at 8 mph.

Prediction for Bills vs. Dolphins made on Wednesday at 10:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Morgan Xaviero

Morgan Xaviero is a publishing editor and lead writer for Underscoreg Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, “C-Jax” has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Underscoreg Review team. He’s a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels’ championship run through the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2026, he’s played a key role in Underscoreg Review’s coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he’s cashed some big bets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — he’s still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed “process over results” bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He’s written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn’t forgiven his “inside source” for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.