Predictions and Picks for 2026: 4 NFL Teams Expected to Miss the Playoffs

As the regular season approaches, hope abounds for all 32 NFL teams and their fans, but not everyone will make it to the postseason. We have compiled our 2026 NFL playoff predictions for the teams that are likely to miss out on the playoffs, using the most recent NFL odds from our top NFL betting sites.

Three division winners from 2021 were among the seven teams that did not make the playoffs in 2026.

Predicting a favorite’s failure in 2026 is not difficult, the challenge lies in determining which one it will be.

Here, four NFL analysts offer their playoff predictions and choose which teams they believe will not make the playoffs this season.

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Predictions of NFL teams that will not make the playoffs

Selections and probabilities from July 11th

Predictions for NFL teams that will not make the playoffs

The New York Jets are listed as underdogs at +125 odds from Caesars.

I predict that the Carolina Panthers will make the playoffs, while the New York Jets will miss out. It is ironic because the Jets are ranked higher in my power ratings than the Panthers, but their schedule will ultimately impact their chances.

If the Jets and Panthers switched divisions, the bets would look very different. The goal of these bets is not to determine which team is superior, but to identify discrepancies between my playoff probability predictions and the market’s odds.

The Jets are currently being overvalued by the market, likely due to the enticing narrative of potentially adding Aaron Rodgers to their roster. Despite my calculations pricing the Jets at -129 (equivalent to 8.8 projected wins) to miss the playoffs, Caesars is offering a +125 odds for them to miss the playoffs. Other top NFL betting sites have even shorter odds for the Jets, trading closer to +110.

– Perry Odelia (SBR, Twitter/X)

Editor’s note: As of September 1, Caesars has the best odds for New York to miss the playoffs at +120.

Caesars has the Miami Dolphins listed at -105.

There is greater potential value in betting on a Super Bowl favorite to miss the playoffs, but I personally prefer targeting the Dolphins.

I’ve given them a 54.9% chance of not making the postseason, which translates to -121 odds and results in a positive expected value of 7%, a better value than the -105 odds offered by Caesars.

This season, the AFC East will face off against the AFC West and NFC East, and I see the Miami schedule’s beginning and end as particularly challenging matchups.

Away matches against the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are no easy task, especially with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s history of concussions. The Dolphins will face a challenging road to making it into the postseason for the second year in a row.

Stewart Serena (@SBR | Twitter/X)

Editor’s note: As of September 1, the best odds for Miami to miss the playoffs are -110 according to DraftKings.

The Cleveland Browns are favored at -120 odds according to Caesars sportsbook.

I’m shocked by the high hopes for the Cleveland Browns. Despite being labeled as a potential playoff team, I remain skeptical. Their chances of making the playoffs are just below 50%.

While they will benefit from having Deshaun Watson as their quarterback for a full season, it’s worth noting that he is now two years removed from his impressive passing numbers in 2020. I believe the current version of Watson falls somewhere between his exceptional 2020 season and his underwhelming performance to finish in 2026.

I doubt that a career-average Watson would be able to elevate the Browns from seven wins to the nine or 10 needed to reach the postseason.

Brooks Octavia mentions on Twitter.

Note from the editor: According to BetMGM, the likelihood of Cleveland missing the playoffs is currently at -120 as of September 1st.

The Minnesota Vikings are favored at -120 according to DraftKings.

The Vikings are poised for regression after a tumultuous 2026 season.

Although the Vikings ended up with a win, their style of play was often unconvincing. They won the NFC North with a record of 13-4, but a significant nine of those wins were by seven points or less, with five of those victories coming from field goals. It seemed like the Vikings were winning by luck rather than skill.

The team has a solid offensive core led by wide receiver Justin Jefferson and promising rookie Jordan Addison. However, the absence of Dalvin Cook and a struggling defense that allowed 25.1 points per game last season (ranking 30th) could pose challenges for the team.

The secondary is a major worry as they have given up an average of 265.6 yards per game. Mehki Blackmon, the team’s third-round pick at cornerback, shows promise but is unlikely to single-handedly improve the group’s performance.

Adding in the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears showing improvement within the division could result in the Vikings quickly falling victim to regression.

– Kelly Irvin, from SBR and Twitter/X

Editor’s Note: As of September 1, the best odds for Minnesota to miss the playoffs are -122 according to FanDuel.

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