Prediction for 2026 Super Bowl MVP: Mahomes is the frontrunner to win again.
The Kansas City Chiefs will face off against the San Francisco 49ers in the 2026 Super Bowl this Sunday, and we are making our predictions for the Super Bowl MVP based on the top NFL odds.
Despite being crowned the NFL MVP for the 2026-24 regular season, Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is currently at home while Patrick Mahomes, who defeated him in the AFC Championship, is the favorite to win the 2026 Super Bowl MVP.
The highly anticipated Super Bowl rematch between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs will take place at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. This game, reminiscent of their clash in Super Bowl LIV, is expected to be a thrilling spectacle as the favored 49ers face off against the reigning champions.
In the past seven Super Bowls, the MVP awards have been dominated by offensive players, with five quarterbacks and two wide receivers taking the honors. The most recent running back to win the award was Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXIII, highlighting the potential challenge for 49ers standout running back Christian McCaffrey.
Based on our analysis of the Super Bowl odds, Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction, and other Super Bowl predictions, we have compiled our Super Bowl MVP predictions and NFL picks. Our picks are based on the odds from top NFL betting sites and are rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars for confidence.
Predictions for the MVP of the 2026 Super Bowl
- Caesars is offering odds of +135 on Patrick Mahomes.
- Deebo Samuel is listed at +3500 odds by BetMGM.
- L’Jarius Sneed is listed at +25000 odds on BetMGM.
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The odds of winning the Super Bowl MVP in 2026
As of February 11, the odds for Super Bowl MVP are…
| Name | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +125 | +150 | +145 | +130 | +125 |
| Brock Purdy | +235 | +210 | +230 | +200 ❄️ | +225 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +450 | +450 | +450 | +400 | +400 |
| Travis Kelce | +1200 | +1400 | +1300 | +1200 | +1100 ❄️ |
| Deebo Samuel | +2000 | +2500 | +2500 | +2000 | +2500 |
| Isiah Pacheco | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 | +2200 | +2500 |
| Rashee Rice | +5000 | +5000 | +6600 | +6000 | +5000 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | +6000 | +5000 | +5000 | +6000 | +5000 |
| George Kittle | +6000 | +7500 | +8000 | +6000 | +8000 |
| Nick Bosa | +7500 | +8500 | +10000 | +8000 | +6600 ❄️ |
Who is going to win the Super Bowl MVP award?
Caesars has Patrick Mahomes listed at +135.
If the Chiefs are victorious in the Super Bowl, it is highly probable that Mahomes will once again be awarded the Super Bowl MVP trophy. Mahomes has been named MVP in both of the Chiefs’ previous Super Bowl victories with him as quarterback, and he clinched the title last year despite only throwing for 182 yards.
In order for a wide receiver or tight end to receive this award, they must be the main focus of the offense, consistently scoring touchdowns, similar to how Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams did in the past. Despite Patrick Mahomes frequently targeting Travis Kelce, the tight end has not yet produced MVP-caliber statistics this season.
It is intriguing that Mahomes is the favorite for MVP, considering the Chiefs are considered underdogs. The Super Bowl winning team has typically had the MVP, with the exception of Super Bowl V. If you agree with oddsmakers that the 49ers should be favored, consider backing McCaffrey as the potential MVP. Despite QB Brock Purdy having shorter odds, McCaffrey is our top choice for MVP if the 49ers emerge victorious.
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Deebo Samuel is listed at +3500 odds on BetMGM.
Samuel could be the standout wide receiver in this game, putting up impressive numbers and potentially stealing the MVP award. Despite his injury in the Divisional Round against the Green Bay Packers, Samuel managed to catch eight passes for 89 yards in the NFC Championship game against the Detroit Lions.
Samuel’s dual threat ability to score both through passing and rushing makes him an incredibly dangerous player. In the regular season, he ended with a total of 12 touchdowns, with five of those coming from rushing plays.
The Chiefs boast one of the top secondaries in the NFL, and they have been exceptional in all three of their playoff matchups. However, for the 49ers to emerge victorious in this game, they must get offensive production from sources beyond McCaffrey. The odds are favorable for their versatile wide receiver to step up, particularly if Purdy makes a couple of mistakes with turnovers.
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L’Jarius Sneed is listed at +25000 odds on BetMGM.
No cornerback has won the Super Bowl MVP award since Dexter Jackson did so with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl XXXVII. However, Sneed has a real chance to break that streak this year.
This season, Purdy has had three games with multiple interceptions. In his most recent game against the Lions, he threw one interception and had several inaccurate throws that could have led to turnovers.
Sneed’s interception drought started on November 20th when the Chiefs faced the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite this, he managed to end the year as the Chiefs’ interceptions leader. In a potentially low-scoring game, where the Chiefs’ defense has excelled and their offense has faltered, a defensive player could be the game-changer. If so, our bet is on the top cornerback from the stronger defensive team.
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Winners of the Super Bowl MVP award in recent years
| Year | Name | Position | Closing odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Patrick Mahomes | Quarterback | +400 |
| 2026 | Cooper Kupp | Wide receiver | +600 |
| 2021 | Tom Brady | Quarterback | +190 |
| 2020 | Patrick Mahomes | Quarterback | +105 |
| 2019 | Julian Edelman | Wide receiver | +2500 |
| 2018 | Nick Foles | Quarterback | +460 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | Quarterback | +125 |
| 2016 | Von Miller | Linebacker | +2500 |
| 2015 | Tom Brady | Quarterback | +200 |
| 2014 | Malcolm Smith | Linebacker | +2200 |
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