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Week 17 NFL Upset Picks and Predictions: Can the Packers Secure a Playoff Spot with a Victory?

Allen Byron

Updated as of 11:30 AM EST on December 31, 2023. Read time: 3 minutes 29 seconds. Links to Twitter and Google News provided.

Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers celebrates defeating the Kansas City Chiefs, and we offer new U.S bettors our exclusive bet365 bonus code.
Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers celebrates defeating the Kansas City Chiefs. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images via AFP.

Every week, we pinpoint three potential NFL upsets that we think will yield the highest returns, and we present our top three NFL upset picks for Week 17 using the most favorable NFL odds available at reputable sportsbooks.

Week 16 saw few surprises until Sunday night, when the New England Patriots stunned the Denver Broncos. The Las Vegas Raiders continued the trend by defeating the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day, and the Baltimore Ravens pulled off an unexpected win against the San Francisco 49ers.

Even though teams expected to win on the moneyline had a 12-4 record, we were able to find substantial closing line value with our two upset picks, the Atlanta Falcons and Cleveland Browns. These teams began as underdogs before shifting to small favorites later in the week.

Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 17, along with our NFL Week 17 predictions and player props. We have rated our picks on a 1-to-5-star scale based on confidence, with odds from our recommended NFL betting sites.

Week 17 NFL Upset Predictions

  • Raiders are the underdogs at +138 against the Colts ⭐⭐⭐ according to BetRivers.
  • Chargers are the underdogs against the Broncos with odds of +205 on bet365. ⭐⭐⭐
  • Packers are underdogs at +118 according to BetRivers against the Vikings ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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NFL upset predictions

Raiders are the favorites to win against the Colts with odds of +138 according to BetRivers, rated three stars.

Our first upset pick is a three-star play, considering Las Vegas is likely to have a letdown after their big road win against the Chiefs. Despite this, we were very impressed with the Raiders’ defense, which scored two touchdowns and limited Patrick Mahomes to 235 passing yards and a 31.6 QBR.

Malcolm Koonce, the Raiders’ edge rusher, dominated the game with three sacks and four tackles for loss. This impressive performance followed his consistent ranking in the top five of all edge rushers in pass rush win rate since Week 9. Koonce’s relentless ability to pressure the quarterback poses a significant challenge for offensive lines, especially when paired with the threat of Maxx Crosby.

The Colts have performed better on the road with a record of 5-3 compared to their 3-4 record at home, while the Raiders, under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, have shown the potential for an upset with a 4-3 record in their last seven games.

We always turn to BetRivers for this bet because it’s the only one of our top sports betting apps that offers odds on the Raiders better than +135.

Check out our Google News page and hit the “Follow” button (⭐) to stay updated on the newest odds, picks, and news!

Bet365 is offering the Chargers ML against the Broncos at +205 odds, with a three-star rating.

The Denver Broncos’ playoff hopes dwindled to just 4% after a disappointing loss to the New England Patriots last week. To prevent a seventh consecutive losing season, Denver must now win its final two games.

The Los Angeles Chargers came close to pulling off a major upset last week against the Buffalo Bills, ultimately falling short with a 24-22 loss.

The Chargers are showing more effort and dedication under interim coach Giff Smith compared to their previous coach Brandon Staley, but surprisingly still lost a game despite winning the turnover battle 3-0 and holding the ball for six more minutes.

The Chargers have a chance to defeat the Broncos if they can score more touchdowns on their drives instead of relying on field goals, especially since the Broncos may be feeling demoralized after their loss last week.

Last week, New England scored their second-highest point total of the season, while the Chargers’ defense forced Buffalo into four punts. This was a significant achievement, especially considering that the Bills had the lowest punt rate in the league on the road, with punts on nearly one out of every four drives.

Our top two sports betting sites, Caesars and bet365, are the only ones offering odds better than +200 for backing the underdogs in this wager.

Packers Moneyline against Vikings is +118 at BetRivers, rated four stars.

Last week, Green Bay was ranked as one of the worst run defenses in the league, giving up an average of over 158 rushing yards in their last six games. Despite allowing 30 points to the Carolina Panthers, the Packers showed improvement in their run defense, only giving up 96 yards and 3.8 yards per rush.

The Packers have the opportunity to allocate additional defenders to defend against the run, as the Minnesota Vikings offense may be missing key players like wide receiver Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson, who both exited last week’s game against the Detroit Lions due to injury.

In recent games, Packers quarterback Jordan Love has been performing exceptionally well. As of last week, he was among the top five quarterbacks in QBR, touchdown passes, and completions since Week 12. In the game against Carolina, he maintained a 90.1 QBR and threw two touchdowns, while the offense ran for 162 yards on 34 carries.

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has a strong track record as an underdog, with a 19-10 ATS record, and has won 17 of 19 December games. On the other hand, Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens has struggled in his career, with a 5-14 SU record in 19 starts and a 3-9 record at home.

BetRivers offers great value with most of our top sportsbooks having moneyline odds of +110 or lower for betting on Green Bay.

Wednesday at 6:41 a.m. ET picks for NFL upsets.

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Written By:
Allen Byron
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”