Skip to main content

Week 17 NFL Upset Predictions: Can the Packers Secure a Playoff Spot with a Win?

Allen Byron

Updated as of December 31, 2026 at 11:30 AM EST. Read time: 3 minutes and 29 seconds. Links to Twitter and Google News provided.

Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers celebrates defeating the Kansas City Chiefs, and we offer new U.S bettors our exclusive bet365 bonus code.
Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers celebrates defeating the Kansas City Chiefs. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images via AFP.

Every week, we select three NFL underdog picks that we think will be the most lucrative, and we present our top three NFL underdog picks for Week 17 using the most favorable NFL odds from reputable sportsbooks.

Week 16 saw few surprises until Sunday night, when the New England Patriots upset the Denver Broncos. The Las Vegas Raiders then shocked the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day, and the Baltimore Ravens pulled off an unexpected win against the San Francisco 49ers.

Although teams favored to win on the moneyline had a 12-4 record overall, we were able to secure significant closing line value by correctly picking two upsets – the Atlanta Falcons and Cleveland Browns. These teams were originally listed as underdogs but ended up as small favorites by the end of the week.

Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 17, along with our NFL Week 17 predictions and player props. The odds are from our recommended NFL betting sites, and our confidence in each pick is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Week 17 NFL Upset Predictions

  • Raiders are the underdogs with +138 odds (BetRivers) as they face off against the Colts ⭐⭐⭐
  • Chargers are the underdogs with odds of +205 according to bet365 in their matchup against the Broncos ⭐⭐⭐.
  • Packers are underdogs at +118 according to BetRivers, facing off against the Vikings ⭐⭐⭐⭐.

This product is not meant for use in MA. Please note that Underscoreg Review may earn advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook.

NFL upset predictions

Raiders are the ML favorites against the Colts, with odds at +138 through BetRivers. This game is rated 3 stars.

Our first upset pick is a three-star play, as we believe Las Vegas may be due for a letdown following their massive road upset of the Chiefs. Nevertheless, we were highly impressed by the Raiders’ defense, which notched two touchdowns and limited Patrick Mahomes to 235 yards passing and a 31.6 QBR.

Malcolm Koonce, the Raiders’ edge rusher, was a dominant force with three sacks and four tackles for loss. His impressive performance followed his top-five ranking among all edge rushers in pass rush win rate since Week 9. Koonce’s knack for getting to the quarterback poses a significant challenge for offensive lines, especially when paired with teammate Maxx Crosby.

The Colts have shown more success on the road with a 5-3 record compared to their 3-4 record at home. The Raiders, under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, have proven they are capable of pulling off an upset with a 4-3 record in their last seven games.

We rely on BetRivers for this bet because it is the only one among our top sports betting apps that offers odds on the Raiders better than +135.

Check out our Google News page and hit the “Follow” button (⭐) to stay updated on the newest odds, picks, and news!

Bet365 has the Chargers listed as the favorites on the moneyline against the Broncos, with odds of +205. This is a three-star bet recommendation.

After the Denver Broncos’ loss to the New England Patriots last week, their playoff chances dropped to 4%. In order to prevent a seventh consecutive losing season, Denver must now win their last two games.

The Los Angeles Chargers came close to securing a major upset last week against the Buffalo Bills, ultimately falling short with a 24-22 loss.

The Chargers appear to be putting in more effort under interim coach Giff Smith than they did under fired Brandon Staley. Despite winning the turnover battle 3-0 and controlling the ball for six more minutes, they surprisingly lost the game.

If the Chargers can score more touchdowns instead of settling for field goals on their drives, they have a good chance of defeating a potentially demoralized Broncos team following their loss last week.

Last week, New England scored its second-highest point total of the season, while the Chargers’ defense forced Buffalo into four punts. This was a significant achievement, especially considering that the Bills had the lowest punt rate in the league on the road, with punts on nearly one out of every four drives.

We can choose between Caesars and bet365 for this bet, as they are the only two top sports betting sites that offer odds of better than +200 for backing the underdogs.

Packers Moneyline facing Vikings (+118 odds on BetRivers) with a four-star rating.

Last week, Green Bay was ranked in the bottom three for run defense, giving up an average of over 158 yards rushing in the previous six games. Despite allowing 30 points to the Carolina Panthers, they performed well against the run, only allowing 96 yards and 3.8 yards per rush.

With the potential absence of wide receiver Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson, the Packers may have the opportunity to dedicate additional defenders to thwart the run against the Minnesota Vikings offense.

In recent weeks, Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love has been performing exceptionally well, ranking in the top five among all quarterbacks in QBR, touchdown passes, and completions since Week 12. In the latest game against Carolina, Love maintained a 90.1 QBR and threw two touchdowns, while the offense managed to gain 162 yards on 34 carries.

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has a strong track record as an underdog, with a 19-10 ATS record, and has won 17 of 19 December games. On the other hand, Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens has struggled in his career, with a 5-14 SU record in 19 starts, including a 3-9 record at home.

You can find great value at BetRivers with most of our top sportsbooks offering +110 odds or lower for betting on Green Bay to win on the moneyline.

NFL upset picks were made on Wednesday at 6:41 a.m. ET.

Note from the editor: Prepare for the upcoming launch of sports betting in Vermont with our top Vermont sportsbook promotions, and don’t forget to download the best Vermont sports betting apps! Must be 21+ and located in Vermont. If you have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

These are the top NFL betting sites we recommend:

  • Use the Caesars promo code SBRBONUS1000 and check out our review of Caesars.
  • BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Check out our BetMGM Review
  • Use the bonus code SBRBONUS on bet365 and check out our review of the site.
  • Use the BetRivers promo code SBRBONUS and check out our review of BetRivers.
  • Check out our FanDuel review and use our promo code
  • Use our DraftKings Promo Code and check out our detailed DraftKings Review.

(21+. If you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER)* Bonuses are not available in Ontario.

Related pages

  • Top Sports Betting Sites with the Best Promotions for Underscoreg (U.S. Residents Only)
Written By:
Allen Byron
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”