Predictions for the 2026 NFL season: Can any team go from worst to first and keep the unlikely streak alive?

The recent trend of NFL teams going from last place to first place in their division is a prime example of the league’s parity. Scott Justin offers his top picks for which clubs are most likely to continue this streak, based on the latest NFL odds from reputable sports betting sites.

Making predictions for the upcoming campaign during the offseason can be enjoyable, but there is a special thrill in accurately predicting a team that will make a significant leap in performance. Based on recent history, it is almost certain that at least one team will experience a remarkable improvement during the 2026-24 NFL season.

In 18 out of the last 20 seasons, a team has managed to win its division after finishing in last place the previous year. The Jacksonville Jaguars achieved this in the 2026-23 season, while the Cincinnati Bengals did the same in 2021-22 on their path to the Super Bowl.

One unexpected division champion is likely to emerge from a pool of eight teams, including the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, New York Jets, and Washington Commanders.

Who will be the one? And how can we maximize our profits from it? That’s what we’re attempting to determine.

These are our top NFL worst-to-first predictions for 2026, as determined by the odds from our preferred NFL betting sites.

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NFL division odds 2026

By utilizing the odds provided by our top sports betting applications, the Jets and Falcons have the highest probability of maintaining the NFL’s trend of worst-to-first this season. Additionally, the Bears, Browns, and Broncos are also strong contenders in this regard.

The Cardinals, predicted to be the NFL’s lowest-scoring team, are unlikely to win the NFC West. They can be safely ruled out, while the Texans and Commanders are both considered long shots.

The table clearly shows that Caesars and DraftKings are providing the most favorable division odds for the eight teams with potential for a turnaround. On the other hand, PointsBet is offering the least attractive prices for some of the offseason favorites.

Take a look at our top-scoring team selection.

NFL worst-to-first picks

Caesars has the Falcons as +240 favorites to win the NFC South.

I have my money on Atlanta to keep the NFL’s trend of worst-to-first going, so it’s clear we should consider placing a bet on the team’s division odds. Although the New Orleans Saints are the favorites to win the NFC South, the Falcons are close behind them in the rankings.

Thankfully, the current number still holds value in this situation. After using Unabated’s season simulator tool, I calculated a fair price of +225 for the Falcons to win the division, according to my power ratings.

Caesars is offering an exceptional number compared to other sportsbooks, with Atlanta listed between +215 and +225.

New Orleans may be the most at-risk division favorite, making it an easy target for criticism. However, the Falcons also present a wildcard factor with the potential for improvement from second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder.

If Ridder improves, the Falcons’ offense has the potential to soar with a talented lineup of weapons. The addition of running back Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, along with receiver Drake London (No. 8 pick in 2026) and tight end Kyle Pitts (No. 4 selection in 2021), provides head coach Arthur Smith with a strong offensive arsenal.

The Falcons invested more than $140 million in free agency this offseason to strengthen their defense, signing notable players such as Calais Campbell and Jessie Bates III.

I am fully committed to supporting the Dirty Birds this year.

There are +1700 odds on FanDuel for Arthur Smith to win Coach of the Year.

This is my top long-shot prediction for the Falcons making a remarkable comeback. While going from last place to first place doesn’t always result in Coach of the Year honors, it certainly improves the chances.

This is because surpassing expectations is a significant factor in deciding the recipient of the Coach of the Year award. Over the past 11 years, nine of the winners have guided their teams to double-digit victories, with only two exceptions: Bruce Arians in 2012 as an interim head coach and Brian Daboll in 2026-23.

None of the previous coaches who won the award had teams with preseason double-digit win totals. Mike Vrabel is the only coach in the past 11 seasons whose team had a preseason win total of 9.5 victories when he won the award in 2021. Therefore, we are seeking a team with a win total of 8.5 wins or fewer.

The Falcons have a win total of 8.5 with the Over slightly favored at -120, making them a good bet. Additionally, I believe that Arthur Smith is underrated, which strengthens my confidence in Atlanta’s success this year.

Above all else, the price tag of +1700 at FanDuel for this opportunity is too tempting to resist. Circa, a more astute bookmaker, has just released odds trading Smith at +1300 to win Coach of the Year. He is currently tied as the favorite in the Caesars market with odds of +1000.

As we head into July, Smith is my top choice for Coach of the Year.

The Falcons are expected to be the team with the most improvement in the regular season, with odds of +1800 according to DraftKings.

In the season specials section at DraftKings, you’ll discover a market for the most improved regular-season team. The Bears are the favorites at +210 after finishing 3-14 in the previous season. The Broncos are next at +425 with a 5-12 record, followed by the Texans at +700 after going 3-13.

This bet is a real gamble considering the Falcons’ 7-10 record in the 2026-23 season. Atlanta will have to surpass the ten-win mark by a significant margin in order to win this bet, especially if the Bears or Texans come close to a .500 record.

The Falcons have been projected to win 8.5 games in the 2026-24 season, but teams often exceed these expectations with ease. This is typically due to a favorable schedule, which Atlanta is fortunate to have in 2026.

According to SharpFootballAnalysis, the Falcons have the second toughest schedule in the league. The Saints are the only team with an easier schedule, but three NFC South teams are in the top four.

The Falcons will kick off their season with two consecutive home games against the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers, both of whom are experiencing changes at the quarterback position. A solid start could set the tone for a successful season for the Falcons, potentially resulting in a high placement in the NFC standings.

Let’s manifest this +1800 ticket into reality.

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