Commanders Betting Preview 2026: Futures Picks & Predictions for Washington

In a division full of experienced quarterbacks, the Washington Commanders are putting their trust in a young, untested second-year quarterback to defy expectations. Will Sam Howell rise to the challenge? Find out in our yearly Commanders betting preview.

In 2026, the Washington Commanders stood out for their ability to achieve success with limited resources, but replicating that accomplishment may be a daunting challenge.

Despite losing their starting quarterback in Week 6, the Commanders managed to put together an impressive, albeit unsuccessful, push for a postseason berth. They only had one 100-yard rushing game all season and didn’t score more than 30 points in a game until Week 10.

Washington’s chances of improving upon last season’s 8-8-1 record will be boosted by full seasons from running back Brian Robinson Jr. and wideout Jahan Dotson, as well as potential positive touchdown regression from star receiver Terry McLaurin. However, the team’s success ultimately hinges on whether Sam Howell can elevate an offense that struggled to score points, averaging just 18.9 per game in 2026.

Take a look at our 2026 Commanders betting preview, which includes odds from top NFL betting sites and confidence ratings on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Commanders betting preview 2026

Commanders to win Under 6.5 games (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Updated odds: Friday, Aug. 25 at 2:30 p.m. ET

This is not the ideal schedule for a team that is counting on three second-year players to be the core of their starting offense. The Commanders will have to contend with tough matchups against the Eagles and Cowboys, as well as games against the competitive NFC West and AFC East teams.

That’s eight matchups against teams currently ranked in the top 10 of Super Bowl odds. The tough season-ending stretch includes away games against the Cowboys, Rams, and Jets, as well as home games against the Dolphins, 49ers, and Cowboys. It will be challenging to rely on late-season wins to boost the team’s total victories.

Currently, BetMGM is providing the best value for the U6.5, but I am leaning towards the alternative U5.5 depending on its availability at your sportsbook. Both BetMGM and DraftKings have the Commanders U5.5 at +150, slightly higher than bet365’s +145 and FanDuel’s +135.

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Commanders to finish last in NFC East (-160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Considering the Eagles and Cowboys are projected to be strong this season, my decision ultimately hinges on whether I think the New York Giants will improve. I am confident they will, given the significant impact Brian Daboll had in his first year as head coach and the addition of tight end Darren Waller and bolstered defensive line depth.

However, the Commanders’ schedule lacks easy victories, particularly if they continue to have difficulties running the ball. Both of their main running backs, Robinson and Antonio Gibson, had averages of less than four yards per carry. The Commanders only managed to score nine rushing touchdowns throughout the season, ranking fourth-lowest in the league.

In order to keep Howell protected, the Commanders will need a strong ground game. Washington allowed the seventh-highest number of sacks in the NFL in 2026, and Howell has only thrown 19 passes in his professional career so far. While Howell was a successful rusher in college, expecting him to maintain that level of success against tough NFL defenses while under pressure is a tall order.

DraftKings had -115 odds available in early August, but that line has since disappeared. Luckily, bet365 still offers decent odds for those interested in this play, as long as it is accessible in your region.

Terry McLaurin Over 4.5 receiving touchdowns (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

McLaurin is a member of a select group, being one of just 10 players to accumulate over 3,300 combined receiving yards in the last three seasons, at the age of almost 28.

Most NFL Receiving Yards, 2020-22

McLaurin has the lowest number of receiving touchdowns in the group, with the other nine players averaging more than twice his total of 28.9.

In 2026, McLaurin led the Commanders with 11 red-zone targets, but his ranking was outside the top 50 overall. He only had nine targets the previous season. Washington has ranked 24th and 26th in red-zone scoring rate in the past two seasons. It might be a good idea to involve him more inside the opponents’ 20-yard line.

I’m counting on Howell to target McLaurin frequently from the start; the duo combined for a red-zone touchdown in Howell’s lone start of the 2026 season, a 26-6 victory against Dallas in Week 18. Despite falling short in touchdown production for three consecutive seasons, McLaurin has managed to score five or more touchdowns in three out of his first four NFL seasons.

I believe he has a good chance of reaching that goal again, even if he doesn’t receive a significant increase in targets. The fact that FanDuel is offering this proposition at slightly less than even odds makes it seem like a smart investment.

Brian Robinson Jr. Over 750.5 rushing yards (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Despite my pessimism about Washington’s struggling running game, I believe that this player prop at DraftKings is significantly undervalued.

When looking at the 2026 season stats, you may notice that Robinson had 205 carries while Gibson had 149, showing a carry split that was almost even. However, Robinson missed the first four weeks of the season due to recovering from a gunshot to the leg (it’s still unbelievable how quickly he recovered). Once he got back on the field, Robinson dominated the backfield.

Robinson had the third-highest number of carries among NFL running backs from Week 9 to 17, excluding the finale. Despite my preference for a more pass-heavy offense, head coach Ron Rivera is unlikely to change his smashmouth style to mimic Andy Reid. Robinson will continue to be a key player in that offensive strategy.

According to FantasyPros’ average of projections from six notable sites, Robinson is expected to finish the 2026 season with 943.7 rushing yards. However, this estimate may be on the low end considering Robinson’s heavy usage in late-game situations, even when the Commanders were behind. With Robinson consistently gaining yards in small increments, taking the over on his rushing yard total of 750.5 yards at +130 odds seems like a valuable opportunity.

Commanders Under 2.5 division wins (-160 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Given that the Commanders finished last year with wins over Philadelphia and Dallas, as well as a tie against the Giants, you won’t find a more fitting team prop than “2.5 division wins.”

I have little confidence in Washington’s ability to meet or exceed that win target in 2026.

The Eagles and Cowboys have strong offenses with experienced quarterbacks at the helm. If Washington’s offensive players struggle to stay healthy, they could have a tough time against these teams. While the Giants may not be on the same level as Philadelphia and Dallas, they have improved their run defense and have a promising young player in 2026 first-round pick Kayvon Thibodeaux.

I find it hard to believe the Commanders could win three division titles from this team.

As of August 11, all picks and confidence levels are up to date.

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