Patriots Betting Preview 2026: Futures Picks & Predictions for New England

The New England Patriots are facing a challenging road ahead in 2026 after finishing third in their division and with the rest of the AFC East having Super Bowl aspirations. Can the Patriots hold their own in the toughest division in football? Explore our top predictions for the New England Patriots’ future based on the latest NFL odds.

The Patriots and the Boston Red Sox both face the challenge of competing in tough divisions. This is something to keep in mind when betting on future outcomes or analyzing the Patriots’ games.

Therefore, the future of our Patriots may appear contradictory at times, but this is to be expected.

Is there a chance that New England could surprise the football world and defeat the dominant teams in the AFC East, or are they doomed to finish in last place?

Take a look at our 2026 New England Patriots betting preview, which includes odds from our top NFL betting sites. Rate your confidence level on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Patriots betting preview 2026

Patriots to win Over 7.5 games (+120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The odds were last updated on Tuesday, August 29th.

This win total seems like an exaggerated response to Aaron Rodgers joining the New York Jets, with the aggressive juice on the Under. The Patriots managed to win eight games in 2026 and are fully capable of achieving that same feat again this season.

New England has favorable matchups against the New Orleans Saints, Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders, Indianapolis Colts, and Pittsburgh Steelers. They only need to secure victories in three of the following close games: Miami Dolphins at home, New York Giants on the road after a bye week, Los Angeles Chargers at home, Kansas City Chiefs at home in mid-December, and the Jets in Week 18.

I am particularly fond of this bet due to the attractive odds available at bet365. The opportunity to get significant plus-money odds on a team that is expected to replicate its success from the previous year despite facing a tougher schedule is too tempting to ignore. Another intriguing option can be found on BetMGM, which has set the Patriots’ wins total at 6.5. I recommend considering either betting the Over at -140 or taking advantage of bet365’s offering at 7.5.

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Patriots to finish 4th in AFC East (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

As of Tuesday, August 29th, the odds are…

Earlier, we talked about a contradiction. While I believe the Patriots can win at least eight games, I don’t believe they can outperform every other team in the division.

Bill Belichick is considered one of the greatest coaches in NFL history, but the Patriots, who were once a dominant force, lack the talent necessary to compete with their AFC East rivals for a playoff spot.

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Mac Jones Over 3,199.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Odds as of Tuesday, August 29th.

Mac Jones fell just short of this number with 2,997 yards last year in 14 games. This year, playing all 17 games, Jones exceeded even bet365’s listed total with 3,801 yards.

Moreover, Jones’ projections show a preference for the Over. NumberFire predicts a total of 3,809.32 passing yards, whereas ESPN’s Mike Clay has Jones projected at 3,353 passing yards. Despite these varying projections, we are opting for the lower total for a few specific reasons.

Initially, Jones was in a supporting role to the second-string quarterback, Bailey Zappe, for a few games last season. If history repeats itself, having a significant difference in odds between Caesars and DraftKings could prove to be advantageous.

After losing top receiver Jakobi Meyers, the Patriots made key acquisitions in Juju Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki to boost their offense. Additionally, Jonnu Smith’s lackluster 9.1 yards per reception last season is being replaced by the more dynamic Gesicki.

Considering his impressive performance of almost 3,000 yards in just 14 games last season and the positive projections for a comeback season, we are confident in selecting Jones’ Over at DraftKings.

Rhamondre Stevenson to record 175+ rushing yards in any regular-season game (+275 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

Despite being a large number, the skilled running back almost reached it last year with an impressive 172 rushing yards on just 19 carries against the Raiders. He also had a strong game against the Detroit Lions, running for 161 yards.

Stevenson had a season high of 25 carries, a number I think he can achieve multiple times in the upcoming 2026 season. With Damien Harris no longer on the team, the Patriots will need to depend on their top players to compete against their tough division rivals.

Even with Ezekiel Elliott joining the team, the situation may be more complex, but I anticipate that Stevenson will still be relied upon in some tight games and manage to accumulate at least 175 rushing yards in at least one of them.

Ezekiel Elliott Over 375.5 rushing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

I understand that Elliott’s performance has declined, but his numbers are still surprisingly low, as shown by DraftKings and Caesars’ total of 425.5. Despite a rough season, Elliott still averaged 3.8 yards per carry and gained 876 rushing yards in 15 games.

NumberFire projects Elliott to have 479.43 rushing yards, while Clay predicts 529 rushing yards for the season. Both projections have Elliott exceeding the total listed at FanDuel and other top sports betting sites.

Some may say that Elliott won’t reach the necessary 100 carries to achieve this goal. Nevertheless, I believe it’s more plausible that the Patriots will release him and he will join a team in need rather than only receiving 80 or fewer carries in a 17-game season.

I am choosing to play the lowest number, as at this stage in Elliott’s career, the discrepancy between FanDuel’s number and that of DraftKings and Caesars could potentially equate to a whole game. Furthermore, the Over at Caesars is more heavily favored compared to FanDuel.

NFL betting preview

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