Tuesday’s MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Will Red Sox Get to Fried?
After a light schedule on Monday, we are back with a full slate of games on Tuesday. Check out our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the most favorable MLB odds.
The Philadelphia Phillies, who currently lead the National League, showcased their superiority by defeating the Milwaukee Brewers 3-1 on Monday. They will continue their quest for league dominance as they face the Brewers at home on Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. ET.
The Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at 6:40 p.m. ET, while the New York Yankees will host the Minnesota Twins at 7:05 p.m. ET. These games showcase three of the top teams favored to win the World Series.
Afterwards, the Atlanta Braves, who are currently facing challenges, will travel to Fenway Park to compete against the Boston Red Sox in a game that features one of our player prop bets for Tuesday.
The day concludes with two West Coast matchups starting at 9:40 p.m. ET: the Seattle Mariners, currently leading the AL West, take on the Oakland Athletics, and the San Francisco Giants face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks as they both look to improve their records towards .500.
Check out our MLB player props and expert predictions for Tuesday’s games. Our MLB picks are sourced from top MLB betting sites and are ranked on a 1 to 5-star scale based on confidence.
Tuesday’s MLB expert picks
- Seth Lugo Over 4.5 strikeouts (+132 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Max Fried Under 6.5 strikeouts (+120 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This content is not meant for use in MAAffiliate Disclosure: Underscoreg Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook.
MLB player props
Seth Lugo Over 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 4.5 (+130) | Over 4.5 (+118) | Over 4.5 (+130) | Over 4.5 (+108) | Over 4.5 (+132) |
Information about the game between the Royals and Guardians includes the moneyline favoring the Guardians at -115 via Betway, the total set at Over 8.5 (-110) or Under 8.5 (-110) also via Betway, with the game scheduled to start at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Seth Lugo has consistently been a reliable pitcher, but he is having an outstanding season with the Kansas City Royals. He is currently in the running for the MLB Cy Young award, boasting a 1.72 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Lugo ranks 13th in fWAR among all qualified pitchers.
Lugo will face a formidable Cleveland Guardians team on Tuesday, known for their low strikeout rate. However, Cleveland tends to hit ground balls frequently, which plays to Lugo’s strengths as a pitcher. Additionally, their average walk rate might work in Lugo’s favor, potentially leading to a high number of strikeouts in this outing.
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Our reliable projection models are in consensus that Lugo is expected to tally 5.35 strikeouts. With those projections in mind, we see a positive expected value of over 42% on this bet at odds of +132.
Our top sports betting sites are offering competitive +130 prices, while Pinnacle, known for its highly respected trading team, is now offering the Over at +113 after initially opening at +130.
Top odds: +132 on bet365
Max Fried Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 7.5 (-175) | Under 6.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-175) | Under 7.5 (-189) | Under 7.5 (-165) |
Information for the game between the Braves and Red Sox: The Braves are favored (-170 via Betway) and the total score is set at 8.5 with the option to bet on Over (+105) or Under (-125) via Betway. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Max Fried has been a standout performer this season for the Atlanta Braves, who have been struggling to find consistency after losing their top hitter and pitcher for the season. Despite his success, Fried has not been a big strikeout pitcher, averaging just 7.29 strikeouts per nine innings.
Fortunately for him, the Red Sox have been striking out frequently this season, particularly in recent games. They currently have the third-highest strikeout rate in the league, a surprising development.
Terms and conditions apply.
Nonetheless, the odds are too high given the projections and Fried’s track record of going Over this total only 3 times in 11 starts this season. I initially wagered on Fried Under 7.5 at -160 on DraftKings, but the smarter bet is now on the Under 6.5 at +120. The +120 price offers a higher expected value (EV) of roughly 42%, compared to the 29% +EV on the -160 odds.
Therefore, the choice between implied probability and expected value is crucial, and in this case, I will choose the latter. Pinnacle is currently pricing Under 7.5 at -242, while the most recent odds for Under 6.5 were -127.
Top odds: +120 available on BetRivers.
MLB player props were set on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
*Bonuses not available for residents of Ontario. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
Related Articles
