NBA Player Props & Expert Picks Today: Holmgren Swat City in Playoff Debut
Prepare for the second day of the 2024 NBA Playoffs with our expert picks and NBA player props, all based on the top NBA odds available.
The 2024 NBA Playoffs’ opening weekend will conclude with four additional first-round games on Sunday, including two particularly intriguing matchups.
After suffering playoff defeats to the Los Angeles Clippers in 2020 and 2021, the Dallas Mavericks are seeking revenge. Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks are set to clash after a season filled with drama between the two teams.
Check out our NBA player props and expert selections for Sunday, with NBA picks derived from the odds provided by our top NBA betting sites. Our pick confidence is rated on a scale of one to five stars.
Sunday’s NBA expert picks
- Kristaps Porziņģis Under 19.5 points (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Derrick Jones Over 0.5 3-pointers (-112 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Damian Lillard Under 7.5 assists (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 blocks (-119 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Sunday’s NBA schedule and odds
- Heat vs. Celtics | Spread: Celtics -13.5 | Total: 208.5
- Mavericks vs. Clippers | Spread: Mavericks -1.5 | Total: 223.5
- Pacers vs. Bucks | Spread: Pacers -1.5 | Total: 231.5
- Pelicans vs. Thunder | Spread: Thunder -8.5 | Total: 214.5
NBA player props
Kristaps Porziņģis Under 19.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While writing this analysis, the odds shifted from -115 to -118, suggesting that it is the favorable choice. Other top sports betting websites have also adjusted their point prop to 18.5.
With a projected score of around 17.5 points, it may be wise to avoid selecting Kristaps Porziņģis in a game against Heat center Bam Adebayo. Porziņģis has only surpassed this threshold once in three previous matchups against the Heat.
I am willing to pay up to -130 juice for Under 19.5 points, but will explore other betting options if FanDuel lowers the line to 18.5 when betting against Porziņģis.
FanDuel offers the best odds at -118.
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Derrick Jones Over 0.5 made 3-pointers ⭐⭐⭐
I predict that Mavericks forward Derrick Jones will make a 3-pointer in a game that showcases superstars Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. It seems likely that he will connect on a kick-out triple after receiving a pass from one of the Dallas stars.
Jones has made a 3-pointer in 58% of his games this season, averaging 1.1 triples per game. He has made at least one outside shot in seven of his last 10 games. With the defense focused on Luka and Kyrie, the Clippers are willing to allow players like Jones to have open looks.
I am choosing to take the Over at -115 or higher, while the rest of the market is at -120 for this wager.
DraftKings offers the best odds at -112.
Terms and conditions apply.
Damian Lillard Under 7.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard will take on a larger role for the Bucks, primarily focusing on scoring rather than facilitating.
Top sportsbooks like Pinnacle are pricing the Under at -150 for this bet. This is based on Lillard’s projection of six assists and his historical performance against the Bucks, where he has only surpassed this mark in 37% of games. Against the Pacers, he has only achieved this feat once in six matchups.
The market is overreacting to Lillard’s props, so I feel confident in taking the Under at -130 or higher.
The most favorable odds are -115 offered by DraftKings.
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Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 blocks ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
In at least one prop market, there is a discount on Chet Holmgren for his playoff debut. Throughout the year, Holmgren has been a top contender for Rookie of the Year due to his impressive defensive production. He is expected to showcase his skills on Sunday and prove why he deserves the title.
Holmgren averaged 1.5 blocks in 66% of his games this season, with an overall average of 2.3 blocks per game. He recorded multiple blocks in all three games against the New Orleans Pelicans, known for their aggressive play near the rim.
This Over is available at a discount of -142 at Caesars, so make sure to take advantage of this offer at BetRivers before the game starts.
The most favorable odds are -119 when betting through BetRivers.
NBA player props were established on Saturday at 11:05 a.m. Eastern Time.
Here are our best NBA betting sites:
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- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
*Bonuses cannot be claimed by individuals under the age of 21. If you have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER. Note that bonuses are not available to residents of Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
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