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FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Bookmakers Dangling Value Price on Truex

Jenkins Miriam

Updated as of August 6, 2023 at 11:42 AM EDT • Read time: 4 minutes and 31 seconds. Links to Twitter and Google News provided.

Martin Truex Jr. waits on the grid prior to the NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race, and he headlines our top odds and picks for Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400.
Martin Truex Jr. waits on the grid prior to the NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race. Photo by Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images via AFP.

As the NASCAR season nears the playoffs, the excitement on the track is heating up. Don’t miss Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway – check out our top picks and predictions based on the latest NASCAR odds.

After last week’s relatively tranquil short-track race, the NASCAR Cup Series will return to a larger and speedier oval track this week. Michigan International Speedway will be the host for its annual NASCAR weekend, with the highlight being the FireKeepers Casino 400 on Sunday afternoon.

Kevin Harvick ended a long winless streak at Michigan last summer, adding to his impressive record of victories at the track. He has won five of the last seven Cup Series races held at Michigan since summer 2018. Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are the only other drivers to have won during that time. Ford has dominated at its home track, winning eight consecutive races.

Michigan is known as one of the fastest tracks on the NASCAR circuit, with a length of two miles. It is similar to Auto Club Speedway in terms of driving, but offers more grip. Kyle Busch took the victory in this year’s race at Auto Club Speedway in late February.

Check out our top choices and predictions for the 2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Richmond Raceway this Sunday. We’ve gathered the odds from our top sports betting apps and rated our picks on a scale of 1 to 5 stars based on confidence.

FireKeepers Casino 400 best bets

  • Outright winner: Martin Truex Jr. (+900 via BetMGM) ⭐
  • Top-5 finish: Kevin Harvick (+130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Group E matchup: Austin Dillon (+270 via SuperBook) vs. Erik Jones, A.J. Allmendinger, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ⭐⭐⭐

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FireKeepers Casino 400 odds

DriverDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Denny Hamlin+600+600+500 ❄️+650 +575
Kyle Larson+750 +600+700+700+600
Martin Truex Jr.+800+750+900 +700 ❄️+750
Kyle Busch+800+800+900 +800+800
William Byron+850+800+600 ❄️+800+850
Kevin Harvick+900+700 ❄️+1000 +850+750
Tyler Reddick+1200+1200+1300 +850 ❄️+1100
Ryan Blaney+1200+1200+1200+1100+1000 ❄️
Chase Elliott+1200 ❄️+1400+1600 +1500+1300
Joey Logano+1300+1400+1600 +1400+1300

FireKeepers Casino 400 picks

Outright winner: Martin Truex Jr. (+900 via BetMGM) ⭐

Martin Truex Jr. has secured three victories this season, solidifying his status as one of the top-performing and most reliable drivers in 2023. Despite being the favored contender last weekend, he has now dropped to third place or lower in the rankings on various sports betting platforms.

This raises the question of why the market is now offering Truex outright odds as high as 9-1. In truth, not much has changed. Since winning at New Hampshire three weeks ago, the No. 19 team has only finished third at Pocono and seventh at Richmond.

Truex is no stranger to historical statistics at Michigan, with four top-three finishes and seven runs of sixth place or better in his last ten starts at the track. His average finish of 6.9 over that span is tied for the second-best among all Cup Series drivers.

When you consider Truex’s impressive track record along with his recent string of strong performances, it’s difficult to make a case against placing a bet on him at +900 odds to win this weekend. This excellent price is only available at BetMGM and is up to two dollars higher than what you’ll find at other top sportsbooks.

Top-five finish: Kevin Harvick (+130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

For the past few weeks, we have been following Kevin Harvick closely. Despite not winning any races in his last NASCAR season, he continues to be one of the most reliable drivers every week.

BetMGM’s odds indicate a 43.5% chance of Harvick finishing in the top five at Michigan on Sunday. It is worth mentioning that the +130 odds are better than the +110 offered by other sportsbooks. Considering Harvick’s past performance at Michigan, betting on him to finish in the top five at plus money seems like a smart choice.

Harvick has dominated at the two-mile oval in his last eight starts, winning five times including the FireKeepers Casino 400 last year. With a runner-up finish in 2018, he has placed in the top two in six of the last eight Cup Series races at Michigan. Harvick’s average finish over that span is an impressive 3.5.

Given his impressive stats, it’s almost impossible to ignore the chance to support Harvick this weekend. While it wouldn’t be surprising if he won again, the +130 payout for just finishing in the top five is definitely worth considering.

Group E matchup: Austin Dillon (+270 via SuperBook) vs. Erik Jones, A.J. Allmendinger, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ⭐⭐⭐

Austin Dillon has shown impressive speed in the three previous races with the Next Gen Car on two-mile oval tracks. He came in second at Auto Club Speedway last year and placed ninth there in February. In Michigan last year, he finished in 13th place. Additionally, he had a fast car in 2021 at the same track, but unfortunately, his day was cut short due to a wreck.

Not only is Dillon known for his speed, but it’s worth mentioning that teammate Kyle Busch won at Auto Club earlier this year in just his second start for Richard Childress Racing. It’s evident that RCR has a strong performance on large oval tracks. Considering this, it would be a smart choice to bet on Dillon to win Group E this week.

In this four-driver group matchup with AD3, the contenders are Erik Jones (+240), A.J. Allmendinger (+290), and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+290). While Jones has the strongest stats at Michigan among the three, the struggles faced by Legacy Motor Club this season make it difficult to have high hopes for him.

At the moment, Allmendinger is in the thick of the playoff cutline points battle. However, it is challenging to rely on Kaulig Racing to consistently perform each week. The same uncertainty applies to Stenhouse and JTG Daugherty Racing. Dillon’s ninth-place finish at Auto Club Speedway earlier in the year outperformed Stenhouse (12th), Jones (19th), and Allmendinger (36th).

Dillon is coming into this race with momentum from his top-10 finish at Richmond last week. It’s likely that the RCR cars will have speed with this package, so the No. 3 car has a strong chance to win in this mid-tier group matchup.

FireKeepers Casino 400 race info

  • Date: Sunday, Aug. 6, 2:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Michigan International Speedway, Brooklyn, MI
  • TV: USA Network
  • Defending winner: Kevin Harvick

Picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400 were made on 08/04/23 at 4:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Jenkins Miriam
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.