UFC Odds & Best Bets Today: UFC 291 Schedule, Picks
The BMF title will be up for grabs as Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje face off in the UFC’s comeback to Salt Lake City this Saturday night. Check out our top picks for UFC 291 with odds from the top sportsbooks.
Over five years ago, at UFC on FOX 29, Poirier and Gaethje, two top lightweights, had an incredible showdown. Poirier ultimately emerged victorious with a TKO in the fourth round after a fierce battle lasting over 15 minutes. The fight reached its climax when Poirier landed a powerful left hand that stunned Gaethje, leading to a flurry of punches that sealed the win.
Since that unforgettable meeting, Poirier has thrived in the lightweight division, achieving a 6-2 record against high-caliber opponents. He has secured notable wins over Conor McGregor (twice), Eddie Alvarez, Max Holloway, Dan Hooker, and Michael Chandler. His only defeats in this timeframe have been at the hands of champion fighters Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira.
Similar to Poirier, Gaethje has only experienced losses against Nurmagomedov and Oliveira since UFC on FOX 29. He has used his aggressive fighting style to dominate opponents such as James Vick, Edson Barboza, Donald Cerrone, Tony Ferguson, Michael Chandler, and Rafael Fiziev.
We have selected our favorites for the Poirier vs. Gaethje main event, but this card is filled with exciting matchups. Former middleweight champion Alex Pereira is moving up to light heavyweight to take on ex-champion Jan Blachowicz, and there is a heavyweight showdown between Derrick Lewis and Marcos De Lima.
Taking everything into consideration, here are our top UFC betting picks for UFC 291 (odds sourced from our recommended sports betting apps; confidence level rated on a scale from 1 to 5 stars).
UFC 291 schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Miranda Maverick (-285) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+240)
- Matthew Semelsberger (-205) vs. Uros Medic (+175)
- CJ Vergara (-175) vs. Vinicius Salvador (+140)
- Jake Matthews (-275) vs. Darrius Flowers (+230)
- Roman Kopylov (-220) vs. Claudio Ribeiro (+180)
- Derrick Lewis (+180) vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima (-210)
- Gabriel Bonfim (-340) vs. Trevin Giles (+280)
- Michael Chiesa (+125) vs. Kevin Holland (-145)
- Tony Ferguson (+290) vs. Bobby Green (-350)
- Jan Blachowicz (-110) vs. Alex Pereira (-110)
- Dustin Poirier (-150) vs. Justin Gaethje (+130)
UFC 291 best bets
- Over/Under: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Over 2.5 rounds (-125 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- ML: Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Winning Method: Derrick Lewis to win by KO/TKO vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima (+260 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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UFC top picks for UFC 291
Over/Under: Poirier vs. Gaethje Over 2.5 rounds (-125 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In a close matchup, I believe it’s more beneficial to avoid choosing a winner. I predict that this fight will last beyond the halfway mark. In their previous meeting, they reached the fourth round, and Poirier has gone to the third round in five of his last seven fights. Gaethje also has a history of lasting until the third round in three of his last five fights, including his recent decision against Rafael Fiziev.
I wouldn’t count out the intense violence that typically accompanies these two fighters, but I anticipate a gory outcome during the later rounds of the championship.
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ML: Blachowicz (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This matchup seems like a potential disadvantage for Pereira. While he excelled as a kickboxer in the middleweight division, he hasn’t faced many strong wrestlers. Blachowicz may not be the top wrestler, but his size and strength could allow him to control the fight on the ground.
While there’s a slim possibility that Pereira could unleash a devastating attack and send Blachowicz reeling, I highly doubt that will occur. Blachowicz, known for his resilience, will likely withstand any onslaught and eventually take the fight to the ground where he will dominate and either win by decision or secure a late stoppage.
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Winning method: Derrick Lewis to win by KO/TKO (+250 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I am supporting a classic display of skill from Lewis, who is known for delivering powerful performances that often result in his opponent’s jaw being figuratively “melted.” Lewis possesses incredible knockout power, with 21 TKOs/KOs in his 26 career wins, hitting like a freight train loaded with dynamite and loose matches. De Lima is also a formidable opponent, with 14 KOs/TKOs in his 21 victories.
I have a hunch that someone is going to be taken down like a redwood tree, and my money is on De Lima.
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UFC top picks placed on 7/28/2023 at 11:30 p.m. ET.
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