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Moreno vs. Pantoja Odds, Picks, Predictions: Moreno Looks to Slay the Dragon at UFC 290

Ramirez Madeline

Updated as of July 8, 2023 at 3:34 PM EDT. Read time: 2 minutes and 48 seconds. Links to Twitter and Google News provided.

Brandon Moreno of Mexico poses on the scale during the UFC 277 ceremonial weigh-in at American Airlines Center as we look at our Moreno-Pantoja pick.
Brandon Moreno of Mexico poses on the scale during the UFC 277 ceremonial weigh-in at American Airlines Center. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP.

Brandon Moreno is aiming for success on his third attempt as he defends his flyweight title against Alexandre Pantoja in the co-main event of UFC 290 this Saturday night. Check out our Moreno-Pantoja UFC predictions, which are based on the odds from our top sports betting apps.

Alexandre Pentoja has defeated Brandon Moreno twice, with one win coming in an exhibition match during the 24th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Nonetheless, this is a significant accomplishment for Pentoja.

Although the Brazilian defeated Moreno five years ago, the “Baby Assassin” has since evolved into the top 125-pound fighter in the world, surpassing even Demetrious Johnson in my opinion, who now competes at 135 pounds.

After a continuous series of back-and-forth title trades with rival Deiveson Figueiredo, Moreno ultimately defeated his long-standing opponent at UFC 283 in January. Out of his six fights since December 2020, five have been against Figueiredo, with the other resulting in a TKO win over Kai Kara-France.

Since defeating Moreno in 2018, Pentoja has accumulated a 6-2 record by defeating Yuta Sasaki, Wilson Reis, Matt Schnell, Manel Kape, Brandon Royval, and Alex Perez, earning himself a title shot.

Will Pentoja achieve a 3-0 record against Moreno and claim the flyweight championship? Or will the current champ solidify his status as the best 125-pounder in the UFC?

This is our top Moreno-Pentoja selection for UFC 290 (odds sourced from FanDuel; Confidence rating is on a scale of 1 to 5 stars).

Take a look at our top picks for UFC 290.

Moreno vs. Pentoja pick 

Moreno (-190 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Moreno has transformed into a completely different fighter since his loss to Pantoja in 2018. While both men have been making improvements, Moreno has been steadily advancing and surpassing his previous self.

“The Baby Assassin” has shown significant improvement since their initial encounters, displaying refined skills in wrestling, boxing, and finishing ability. Their performances now feature intense scrambles and a lethal edge that can only come from competing at the highest levels of the division.

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Pantoja is also a formidable grappler known for his ability to swiftly secure a submission if the chance arises. However, I doubt he will have that opening in this fight. I anticipate a fierce battle between the two fighters, but ultimately see Moreno coming out on top after a grueling 25 minutes.

If you’re struggling to choose a winner, betting on the Over (3.5 rounds, -165 DraftKings) seems like a smart bet with good value. Both fighters have a history of going the distance, with a total of 11 losses between them, all by decision.

Take a look at our Volkanovski-Rodriguez selection.

Moreno vs. Pentoja best odds

FanDuel (-190)

DraftKingsFanDueltheScoreBetCaesarsPointsBet
-205-190-210-210-200

Moreno started as a -160 favorite, and that lead has only increased as the fight approaches. The odds are fairly consistent across sportsbooks, but your best option is to bet on the champion at -190 on FanDuel.

If you’re not a fan of that option, there are other possibilities to consider. One option is to place a bet on Moreno to win by decision, which is currently at +190 at FanDuel and bet365. Alternatively, if you believe Pantoja will emerge victorious and claim the title, you can back the challenger at +175 through DraftKings.

Moreno vs. Pentoja fight info

Event: Saturday, July 8 at 10 p.m. ETTV: Pay-Per-View (PPV), ESPNVenue: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV

Moreno-Pentoja selection was made on June 8, 2023 at 7:27 a.m. Eastern Time.

Here are our best sports betting apps:

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Written By:
Ramirez Madeline
A sportswriter for more than a decade, Ramirez Madeline was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.