Dutch Grand Prix Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Oddsmakers Expecting Verstappen to 3-Peat
There are numerous options available for making Dutch GP picks and predictions for Sunday’s Formula 1 race when using the odds provided by our top sports betting apps.
The Formula 1 stars are back on the track in the Netherlands this Sunday after a four-week break. Circuit Zandvoort will once again host the Dutch Grand Prix for the third year in a row following a 25-year hiatus due to contract issues.
Ever since the Dutch GP was added back to the F1 calendar in 2021, Max Verstappen has been dominating. He has won the last two seasons and secured pole position in qualifying on Saturday, just like he did last year. With an impressive eight-race winning streak, it’s not surprising that Verstappen is heavily favored by our top sportsbooks to win a third consecutive Dutch GP.
Is there anyone who can defeat the seemingly invincible Verstappen and Red Bull Racing this Sunday? The top-5 on the starting grid, which includes Lando Norris from McLaren, George Russell from Mercedes, Fernando Alonso from Aston Martin, and even Alexander Albon from Williams, will make for an interesting race. However, Verstappen proved his dominance by qualifying over half a second faster than all of them.
Below are our top picks and predictions for the 2023 Dutch Grand Prix taking place at Circuit Zandvoort on Sunday. Our odds come from the leading sports betting sites, with confidence levels rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
Dutch GP Best Bets
- Outright winner: Max Verstappen (-430 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Top 3 finish: George Russell (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Points finish parlay: Fernando Alonso (-470) and Lance Stroll (-160) = -104 via FanDuel⭐⭐
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Dutch GP odds
As of 7:20 p.m. ET on Saturday, the odds for the Dutch GP are…
| Driver | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -525 | -430 | -650 ❄️ | -500 | -600 |
| Lando Norris | +800 | +900 | +800 | +900 | +800 |
| George Russell | +1100 ❄️ | +1600 | +1200 | +1400 | +1200 |
| Sergio Perez | +2800 | +2900 | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +4500 | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 | +5000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +5500 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +5500 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Oscar Piastri | +6500 | +6500 | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
Dutch GP predictions
Outright winner: Max Verstappen (-430 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Is there anyone brave enough to wager against Verstappen winning the Dutch Grand Prix? We certainly aren’t, and we’re not bothered if you want to mock us for it. Verstappen and Red Bull Racing are having an exceptional season. With Verstappen securing pole position in Saturday’s qualifying, it seems like his dominance will continue.
As mentioned in the introduction, Verstappen is coming into Sunday’s event with an eight-race winning streak. The last time he did not finish first was on April 30 in Azerbaijan. Out of the 12 F1 races held in 2023, Verstappen has won 10 of them and finished second to teammate Sergio Perez in the other two races.
In the Dutch GP two years ago, Verstappen secured pole position and easily won the race, crossing the finish line over 20 seconds ahead of Lewis Hamilton. Last year, he once again started from pole and although the race was closer, he still finished comfortably ahead of George Russell by four seconds.
Considering all factors, it is evident why some sportsbooks have given Verstappen an 86.7% chance of winning Sunday’s race. FanDuel’s -430 odds are the most affordable in the market and still suggest an 81.1% likelihood of a three-peat.
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Top 3 finish: George Russell (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Russell seems to have a fondness for Circuit Zandvoort. In his first race there two years ago with Williams-Mercedes, he qualified 11th but was forced to retire early due to a gearbox failure. Last season, as a Mercedes driver, he qualified sixth and impressively finished in second place at the Dutch GP.
Although Russell finished over four seconds behind Verstappen in last year’s race, he was the only car within 10 seconds of the leader. On Sunday, Russell does not necessarily have to defeat Verstappen to achieve another podium finish. In fact, he does not even need to make up positions like he did in the previous year.
Russell’s strong performance in Saturday’s qualifying session earned him the third spot on the starting grid. It is possible that he may be able to pass McLaren’s Lando Norris during the race. Additionally, starting fourth, Williams’ Alexander Albon provides Russell with a slight cushion against other drivers with faster cars, giving him a strategic advantage.
Given his starting position and previous track record in this race, it is evident that Russell has a strong likelihood of finishing on the podium, potentially greater than the 54.5% implied probability. This sentiment is shared by other oddsmakers, as evidenced by the -120 odds offered by bet365 for this proposition, which is five cents lower than several other reputable betting shops.
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Points finish parlay: Fernando Alonso (-470), Lance Stroll (-160) = -104 via FanDuel ⭐⭐
We are increasing our confidence in the Aston Martin drivers by placing a prop bet on the Dutch GP. Taking into account their recent performances and differences in pricing, we are betting on a two-leg parlay for Alonso and Stroll to both secure a top-10 finish on Sunday.
Let’s start by looking at the drivers. Alonso finished sixth in the Dutch Grand Prix in both the previous two seasons. In 2021, he moved up three places on track to achieve this result, and the year before he gained a remarkable seven positions starting from 13th. This year, he will begin the race in fifth place. Despite not having won any races this season (like many other drivers), Alonso has consistently scored points in every race.
Stroll has shown improvement in his race finishes over the past two years. He finished 12th in this race two years ago, improved to 10th last year, and will start 11th on the grid on Sunday. With Williams’ Logan Sargeant starting in front of him, Stroll is likely to gain at least one position during the race. Stroll has been performing well, with top-10 finishes in five of his last six races, dating back to a sixth-place finish in the Spanish GP.
In terms of pricing, bettors can find a 16-cent advantage by betting on both drivers to finish in the points at FanDuel compared to DraftKings. The team prop is phrased differently on each site, but betting on “both Aston Martin drivers to finish top-10” is essentially the same bet. However, the price at FanDuel is -120.
In addition, bettors have the option to include a third driver in their parlay at FanDuel for an added bonus. Combining Verstappen with the Aston Martin teammates would give a parlay ticket with +116 odds at FanDuel. Substituting Verstappen with Lando Norris or George Russell would increase the odds to +130.
Dutch GP race info
- When: Sunday, August 27, 9 a.m. ET
- Where: Circuit Zandvoort, New Holland, Netherlands
- How to watch: ESPN
- Defending winner: Max Verstappen
Picks for the Dutch GP were selected on August 26, 2023 at 4 p.m. Eastern Time.
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