Cook Out Southern 500 Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Harvick Undervalued in NASCAR Playoff Opener?
The NASCAR Cup Series kicks off its postseason this Sunday with the highly anticipated Cook Out Southern 500 race at Darlington. Prepare for the excitement with our top picks and predictions, utilizing the latest NASCAR odds from the leading sports betting apps.
The NASCAR Cup Series starts off with a bang as the sport’s biggest race kicks off the annual season schedule. This race, the playoff opener, is the second most notable event on the calendar. The historic Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway will be the first test for the 16 drivers vying for the championship.
Last year, numerous playoff drivers fell victim to crashes in this race, allowing Erik Jones to emerge victorious in the Southern 500. This marked the first of three consecutive postseason races won by non-playoff drivers. Earlier this year, William Byron claimed victory when NASCAR raced at the same track in the spring.
Darlington is known as one of the most challenging tracks in racing. Its dual ends, worn surface, and unconventional length of 1.33 miles have earned it the nickname “The Track Too Tough to Tame.” Success at Darlington often comes down to a driver’s ability to manage their tires and equipment, while also navigating the unique demands of each turn.
Below are our top predictions and picks for the 2023 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on Sunday night, with odds provided by our trusted sports betting sites. Each pick is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars based on confidence.
Cook Out Southern 500 best bets
- Outright winner: Kevin Harvick (+2000 via SuperBook) ⭐⭐
- Driver matchup: Kyle Busch (+110 via SuperBook) vs. Ross Chastain ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Group B matchup: Denny Hamlin (+225 via bet365) vs. Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch and Tyler Reddick ⭐⭐
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Cook Out Southern 500 odds
| Driver | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr. | +500 | +550 | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Kyle Larson | +500 | +490 ❄️ | +525 | +500 | +550 |
| William Byron | +750 | +750 | +750 | +750 | +800 |
| Denny Hamlin | +800 | +750 | +800 | +750 | +800 |
| Ross Chastain | +1000 | +950 | +1100 | +850 | +650 ❄️ |
| Kyle Busch | +1100 | +1200 | +1100 | +1100 | +1200 |
| Christopher Bell | +1200 | +1100 | +1100 | +1100 | +1200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1300 | +1300 | +1400 | +1000 ❄️ | +1200 |
| Chase Elliott | +1600 | +1700 | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1600 | +1400 ❄️ | +1700 | +1600 | +1600 |
Cook Out Southern 500 predictions
Outright winner: Kevin Harvick (+2000 via SuperBook) ⭐⭐
We have stated it previously and will reiterate: Kevin Harvick will emerge victorious in a race during his last season as a NASCAR Cup Series driver. Might this triumph occur at a track where he has excelled throughout his illustrious career? Despite skepticism from the betting market, the potential value is too enticing to overlook, making him our top pick for the outright win.
Harvick has been incredibly impressive at Darlington. He won his first start here for Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014 and has since maintained an impressive streak. In the Cook Out Southern 500 on Sunday, he will be looking to continue his success, with three total wins, 12 top-5 finishes, and 14 top-10 finishes in his last 15 races at the track. The only blemish on his record was last year’s race, where a build-up of tire rubber caused his brakes to catch fire late in the race.
Harvick has been dominant in the last 10 races at Darlington with an average finish of 6.3, which is more than two positions better than any other driver. In the eight races dating back to 2020, his average driver rating of 103.2 is only surpassed by Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin. With two wins, six top-5 finishes, and seven top-10 finishes in that same span, Harvick is either tied for or leading all drivers in these categories.
The No. 4 car is not the top choice for Sunday’s playoff opener when it comes to pricing. SuperBook is offering the best value on “The Closer” with odds of 20-1, while other outlets have Harvick’s odds as low as 15-1.
At a track where he consistently performs well, odds of 20-1 seem like a dream come true. This rare two-star outright winner play is made possible by the favorable price.
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Driver matchup: Kyle Busch (+110 via SuperBook) vs. Ross Chastain ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Recently, it’s difficult to remember that Ross Chastain was leading in points standings earlier this season. The Trackhouse Racing team has been struggling, with Chastain only managing one top-10 finish in the nine races since his win at the Ally 400 to secure a spot in the playoffs.
Due to his recent difficulties, it is somewhat surprising to see him considered a serious contender by multiple sportsbooks before the Cook Out Southern 500. This level of respect is evident not only in the outright odds but also in various prop markets, such as the driver head-to-head where Chastain is favored at -130 over Kyle Busch.
Busch finished the regular season on a less than stellar note, but still outperformed Chastain with three top-5 finishes and an extra top-10 in the nine races following Nashville. Additionally, Busch has a much stronger track record at Darlington compared to Chastain.
Busch has achieved three top-3 finishes and six top-10 finishes in his last 10 races at Darlington, including a seventh-place finish in his first start for Richard Childress Racing in the spring. In comparison, Chastain has only finished better than 15th once in eight Cup Series starts at Darlington, with five of those starts resulting in finishes of 28th or worse.
Why hesitate to place this bet when recent form and track stats both show Busch as the underdog with the best odds? While other shops have Chris Buescher as a plus-money dog against Chastain, the +110 return on Busch at SuperBook offers the most value in the market.
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Group B matchup: Denny Hamlin (+225 via bet365) vs. Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch and Tyler Reddick ⭐⭐
Despite Kevin Harvick’s impressive statistics at Darlington, Denny Hamlin is not far behind. In the eight races at the track since 2020, Hamlin has won twice and placed in the top-5 three other times. He has only finished worse than 13th once during that time.
Due to his strong performance at “The Lady in Black,” it is evident that Hamlin has established himself as a Group A driver this week. While DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperBook have all recognized his potential by placing him in their top-flight group matchup, bet365 has not followed suit. Despite being favored to win Group B at bet365, the fact that he is not in the top group makes this a prop bet worth examining.
Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch, and Tyler Reddick will be joining Hamlin in this four-man group matchup. While all three drivers have had some success at Darlington, Busch has had the most. Despite their achievements, none of them have been able to match Hamlin’s consistent performance over the years.
Hamlin has the best odds to win this matchup at +225, which is the same price that bet365 and other sportsbooks are offering for him to place in the top three. Betting on the No. 11 car to outperform four other drivers, even though they are all playoff contenders, is a more favorable bet than betting on him to finish in the top three overall.
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Cook Out Southern 500 race info
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 3, 6 p.m. ET
- Location: Darlington Raceway, Darlington, SC
- How to watch: USA Network
- Defending winner: Erik Jones
Picks for the Southern 500 were made on September 1st, 2023 at 4:32 p.m. Eastern Time.
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