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Italian Grand Prix Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Verstappen Goes for Record 10th Consecutive Win

Jenkins Miriam

Updated on September 2, 2023 at 6:52 PM EDT • Read time: 4 minutes and 25 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Max Verstappen of Red Bull Racing during qualifying ahead of the Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix at Autodromo Nazionale di Monza in Monza, Italy on Sept. 2, 2023 as we look at our Italian Grand Prix picks.
Max Verstappen of Red Bull Racing during qualifying ahead of the Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix at Autodromo Nazionale di Monza in Monza, Italy on Sept. 2, 2023. Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via AFP.

Will Max Verstappen achieve a historic 10th consecutive win? Get our predictions and picks for the Italian GP, backed by the top Formula 1 odds. Learn where to place your bets on the unstoppable driver and explore other exciting prop bets for the upcoming race on Sunday.

After being postponed for a few months, Formula 1 is finally scheduled to race in Italy this Sunday. The most dominant driver in racing history will be seeking to make history once again as the green flag drops at the Monza Circuit for the Italian Grand Prix.

As the weekend approaches, Max Verstappen, the reigning series champion, is currently on an impressive winning streak of nine races. He recently matched Sebastian Vettel’s record from 2013 by winning in his home country last week and is now aiming to surpass it by claiming victory in his 10th consecutive F1 race this Sunday.

Verstappen is beginning his race from the front in an attempt to make history, but he will not be in the pole position as he was in all other races this summer. Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz beat Verstappen and his teammate Charles Leclerc by .013 and .067 seconds, respectively. If Saturday’s closely contested qualifying session is any indication, fans can look forward to an exciting race on Sunday.

Below are our top predictions and selections for the 2023 Italian Grand Prix happening on Sunday at the Monza Circuit. Our picks are based on odds provided by SuperBook, BetMGM, and bet365, with confidence levels rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Italian GP Best Bets

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Italian GP Odds

DriverDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Max Verstappen-500-440 -450-450-500
Carlos Sainz+750 +650+500 ❄️+650+600
Charles Leclerc+1000+1100+1000+1200 +1000
Sergio Perez+2500 +2200+2000+2000+2000
George Russell+4000+4500 +4000+4000+4000
Lewis Hamilton+4500+5500 +5000+4000 ❄️+5000

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Italian GP Predictions

Outright winner: Max Verstappen (-350 via SuperBook) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Formula 1 bettors are aware of the high stakes required to support Verstappen in a race. This week, the intriguing aspect is the variation in prices within the betting market.

In the odds table provided, FanDuel has the lowest price on Verstappen at -440. However, for those who are willing to do some extra research, SuperBook offers a much more favorable number.

Surprisingly, Verstappen is only the -350 favorite at this particular shop, which is significantly lower than other major shops. FanDuel gives him an 81.5% chance of winning outright, while SuperBook’s price implies a 77.8% probability. Despite still being a big favorite, why pay more vig than necessary?

When it comes to choosing a favorite to win the Italian Grand Prix, it’s hard to look past Verstappen. As the current F1 champion and dominating this season, he is on the verge of making history with his 10th consecutive race win. Not to mention, he won this race last year. The rest of the field will have their work cut out for them.

Top 3 finish: Sergio Perez (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

While Sergio Perez did not achieve the same level of success as his Red Bull Racing teammate this season, his 2023 campaign can still be considered solid. Currently sitting in second place in the points standings, Perez is 33 points ahead of the next driver. Additionally, he is the only driver besides Max Verstappen to have won a race this year.

Perez struggled with poor qualifying runs initially, but has managed to improve in recent weeks. This positive trend was evident in Saturday’s Italian GP qualifying session, where he secured a fifth place starting position on the grid.

Despite his poor qualifying performances, Perez consistently demonstrates superior speed compared to most other drivers on the track. In his recent form, he has finished on the podium in three out of the last five races, with only a sixth-place finish at the British GP and a fourth-place finish at the Dutch GP breaking that streak.

Locked into a top-5 starting position for the upcoming weekend, Perez is a strong contender for a podium finish according to bettors. He made an impressive climb from sixth place to gain seven spots at the Monza Circuit last year, and added three more positions in the 2021 race. BetMGM is offering a -115 price on Perez finishing in the top-3, which is up to 10 cents lower than other sportsbooks.

Group 3 matchup: Oscar Piastri (+162 via bet365) vs. Lando Norris, Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson ⭐⭐

Bet365 stands out in Formula 1 betting by offering four-driver group matchups, a type of wager that is rare in the F1 market. For the Italian Grand Prix, focus on Group 3, which features drivers from McLaren and AlphaTauri.

One of the reasons this group is so captivating is the immediate focus on the McLaren teammates going head-to-head. While AlphaTauri is a respectable team, they have not given Yuki Tsunoda or Liam Lawson the equipment needed to challenge the McLaren drivers this season.

With the two underdogs out of the picture, let’s focus on Oscar Piastri at +162 odds. Piastri qualified seventh, two positions ahead of favorite Lando Norris at +100 odds. Norris has a successful track record at Monza Circuit, placing fourth in 2021 and seventh in the previous year.

Piastri has struggled to outperform his teammate this season, with his last time finishing ahead dating back to the Canadian GP. On the other hand, Norris has been excelling in qualifying lately, giving him a significant edge. How will Norris perform starting from ninth on Sunday?

Piastri’s two-spot advantage on the grid, paired with identical equipment to his McLaren teammate, gives him a fair opportunity to maintain his lead. However, the +162 price suggests only a 38.5% likelihood of this outcome, which seems undervalued.

Italian GP Race Info

  • Date: Sunday, Sept. 3, 9 a.m. ET
  • Location: Monza Circuit, Monza, Italy
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Defending winner: Max Verstappen

Picks for the Italian Grand Prix were made on September 2, 2023 at 5:34 p.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Jenkins Miriam
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.