NFL Week 18 Upset Picks, Predictions: Final Regular-Season Games Provide Plenty of Value

Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins warms up before a game against the Baltimore Ravens, and we offer our top NFL upset predictions for Week 18 based on the best NFL odds. — Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins warms up before a game against the Baltimore Ravens. Photo by Rob Carr via AFP.

As we head into the last week of the regular season, there are numerous opportunities to capitalize on the most favorable NFL odds at top sportsbooks for our upset predictions, as many starting players are being benched.

Week 18 of the best sports betting apps presents us with some unexpected underdogs as several teams choose to rest their key players before the playoffs.

One game we are targeting for potential advantage is the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. Despite typically being heavy favorites in a game against the Chargers, the Chiefs are actually going into this game as significant underdogs due to playing with their reserve players.

In the final week of the regular season, we will be targeting not only that game but also others as we search for value on some of the NFL’s most intriguing underdogs.

Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 18, along with our NFL Week 18 predictions and player props. We have rated our confidence in each pick on a 1-to-5-star scale, using odds from our recommended NFL betting sites.

NFL upset picks: Week 18

Kansas City Chiefs (+160 via bet365) vs. Los Angeles Chargers ⭐⭐⭐
Miami Dolphins (+130 via bet365) vs. Buffalo Bills ⭐⭐⭐
Cleveland Browns (+255 via bet365) vs. Cincinnati Bengals ⭐⭐

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NFL upset predictions

Chiefs ML vs. Chargers (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Despite benching their starters, the Chiefs are still live underdogs in this situation. The Chargers also don’t have their full team of starters, and with Andy Reid and the superior coaching staff in Kansas City still active, the Chiefs have a chance to pull off an upset.

Anticipate the Chiefs to be highly motivated and seeking confidence as they enter the playoffs. Kansas City has a history of success on the road as underdogs, winning five straight divisional games and four consecutive matchups against the Chargers.

The Chiefs have won 9 out of their last 11 road games and have covered the spread in 8 straight road games as underdogs against AFC opponents. On the other hand, the Chargers are on a 2-6 against the spread streak and have failed to cover in 4 out of their last 6 home games.

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Dolphins ML vs. Bills (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The AFC East title is up for grabs in Miami, where the Dolphins have been dominant and are set to take on the struggling Buffalo Bills. Despite Buffalo’s impressive 10-1 SU record in their last 11 games against Miami, the Bills are currently on a four-game winning streak but have not been performing well, particularly in their passing game.

Miami is dominant at home, winning eight of their last nine games and six straight against division rivals. The Dolphins have covered the spread in four of their last five games against teams with winning records. On the other hand, Buffalo has struggled on the road, going 1-4 against the spread in their last five away games.

Browns ML vs. Bengals (+255 via bet365) ⭐⭐

Despite being considered a long-shot, the Cleveland Browns have a history of success against the Cincinnati Bengals, winning six of their last seven meetings. Cincinnati has struggled in divisional games, losing the spread in five straight matchups. While the +7 spread seems like an easy bet, the +255 value for the Cleveland moneyline is a risk worth considering.

Cincinnati has not covered the spread in six out of their last eight games, including their last seven within the division. The numbers suggest an easy cover with the Browns, and even more so with the value they offer as underdogs for a potential outright win.

NFL upset predictions were made on Thursday at 7:40 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Lewis Ulmer

Lewis Ulmer has been working in sports media for 15 years covering over 30 different leagues and betting events. He is a former Editorial Production Manager, Digital Content Producer, and statistician for various betting entities and organizations such as Spectrum Sports and Stats Perform, LLC. He has appeared on VSIN and BetMGM Tonight to share his wide range of sports betting knowledge.