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College Football Playoff Player Props: CFP Predictions, Picks for New Year’s Day

Morgan Xaviero

Updated as of January 1, 2026 at 3:34 PM EST, this article is a 4 minute and 19 second read. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Washington Huskies passes as we make our College Football Playoff player props predictions and picks for Monday's CFP slate on New Year's Day.
Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Washington Huskies passes against the Utah Utes during the second quarter at Husky Stadium on November 11, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images via AFP.

Get ready for the College Football Playoff with our top college football player props for the Alabama vs. Michigan and Texas vs. Washington games, taking into account the latest NCAAF odds from the top college football betting sites for Monday’s CFP slate on New Year’s Day.

The College Football Playoff kicks off on Monday with two exciting New Year’s Day matchups: Alabama taking on Michigan, and Texas facing off against Washington in the CFP semifinals.

As we highlighted in our New Year’s Six predictions, the underdogs in Monday’s games offer great live betting opportunities at top sports betting apps because of key mismatches with their core offensive players. The player props market is showing clear value before what promises to be an exciting conclusion to the four-team College Football Playoff format.

Along with our predictions for the Alabama vs. Michigan and Texas vs. Washington games, we are also providing our top college football player props for the College Football Playoff on Monday. These prop bets are based on odds from our recommended college football betting sites and are rated on a 1 to 5-star scale for confidence.

College Football Playoff player props for New Year’s Day (Monday)

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College Football Playoff player props for Monday’s CFP

Blake Corum Under 81.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I believe this prop bet for the CFP semifinals is overvalued due to the high name recognition of Michigan’s top running back.

Corum has excelled in scoring touchdowns with a total of 24, but his rushing yards per game (79.1) and yards per carry (4.7) are both below his season averages from 2026. He has only surpassed this total five times this season, and in four of those instances, it required 20 or more carries to achieve.

I doubt he will have the opportunity to have a heavy workload or produce much against the tough Alabama defense. They limited Georgia to just 78 rushing yards on 31 carries (2.5 yards per carry) and are ranked 19th in rushing success rate going into the College Football Playoff. If Michigan falls behind early, as I predict they might, it will be even harder for him to make an impact.

Jalen Milroe Over 194.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This line is disrespectful to Milroe, who is just four yards short of Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy’s passing prop of 190.5 yards, despite outperforming him for months.

This figure is feeling down due to the Wolverines’ top-ranked defense in scoring (9.5), total defense (239.7 YPG), and pass defense (152.6 YPG). In my analysis of this game, I have doubts about these statistics because of the lack of strong offenses in the Big Ten this season.

Michigan has not encountered a player like Milroe, who improved his performance in the middle of the season and averaged 235 passing yards in his last eight starts. He has thrown for over 190 yards in all but one game this season, including a 192-yard performance against Georgia’s strong defense in the SEC final.

The key advantage to capitalize on is Milroe’s powerful arm against the Wolverines’ weak secondary, which gave up a lot of big passing plays despite playing against mostly low-ranked passing offenses. This sets the stage for potential disaster on Monday.

Xavier Worthy Under 73.5 receiving yards (-114 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There is no denying that Worthy is one of the top receivers in college football and is a potential first-round pick. However, this upcoming game will be a challenge for the Longhorns star, especially considering he is already dealing with injuries heading into Monday’s matchup.

Despite clearing this total in eight of 12 games, Worthy injured his ankle in the Big-12 final and has since been limited in practice. He disclosed on Friday that he is not operating at 100% and continues to experience pain while running routes.

This does not bode well for Monday’s game against the Huskies, as their pass defense may seem average on paper but has successfully defended against top NFL-bound quarterbacks in the Pac-12. Despite this, they still have talent in their secondary, including standout corner Jabbar Muhammad who limited Oregon’s star receiver Troy Franklin to just 34 yards in the Pac-12 Championship game.

In six out of the eight games where Worthy had at least 75 receiving yards, he made catches of 39 yards or more. This will be a difficult challenge against Muhammad & Co., who are among the top 20 teams in limiting big plays and causing disruptions in the secondary.

I anticipate that Texas will rely heavily on the running game and try to prevent QB Quinn Ewers from making risky throws against the aggressive secondary. This strategy may not work in favor of Worthy having a standout performance in the Sugar Bowl.

Michael Penix Over 309.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Out of the four prop plays for Monday’s semifinals, this is the one I have the least confidence in, mainly due to Penix’s inconsistency in the latter part of the season. However, I am still optimistic about the matchup against a struggling Texas secondary.

As of Monday, the Longhorns are ranked 93rd in passing yards allowed, giving up an average of 40.8 yards per game. In four of their last seven games, they allowed over 300 passing yards. This defense has difficulty stopping big plays through the air, a weakness that will be highlighted by the absence of safety Derek Williams Jr. in the first half due to a targeting ejection in the Big-12 final.

The vulnerability to deep passes is a serious weakness for Penix, who led all quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks in average depth of target (11.1) and attempted the most throws of 20 yards or more downfield (100). This flaw played a significant role in his second-place finish in Heisman Trophy voting in 2026.

The key to Texas’ defense lies in its interior defensive line, so it’s likely that Washington coach Kalen DeBoer will rely on Penix to lead the offense and spread the field in order to neutralize this strength. This bodes well for a prop bet, as Penix has thrown for 310-plus yards in seven out of nine games where he has attempted 35 or more passes.

Player props for Monday’s College Football Playoff were created on Friday at 4 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Morgan Xaviero
Morgan Xaviero is a publishing editor and lead writer for Underscoreg Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, “C-Jax” has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Underscoreg Review team. He’s a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels’ championship run through the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2026, he’s played a key role in Underscoreg Review’s coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he’s cashed some big bets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — he’s still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed “process over results” bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He’s written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn’t forgiven his “inside source” for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.